Gunkul Engineering Public Company Limited

Several brokers have issued research notes recommending a buy on Gunkul Engineering, or GUNKUL, after it signed a partnership agreement with Gulf Development, or GULF, to set up a joint venture for renewable energy projects. Bualuang Securities said GUNKUL signed power purchase agreements, or PPAs, for an additional 261.8 megawatts in phase 2 renewable energy projects, and sold a 50 percent stake in seven project companies, or SPVs, with total capacity of 673.4 megawatts to GULF for 467 million baht. The deal helps keep 26 billion baht of project debt off GUNKUL's balance sheet and opens the door to EPC backlog not yet included in estimates. It maintained its buy rating with a target price of 6.50 baht. Krungsri Securities upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a 2027 target price of 6.30 baht per share based on a sum-of-the-parts method, split into 4.05 baht per share for the power business and 2.24 baht per share for the EPC and trading business. It also raised its 2026 to 2028 profit forecasts by an average of 8 percent, putting profit at 2.1 billion, 2.1 billion and 3.3 billion baht, an average growth rate of about 25 percent a year, with clear growth expected in 2028 after commercial operation, or COD, of large renewable energy projects in the Philippines. Asia Plus Securities kept its estimates and 2027 fair value at 6.40 baht per share, saying the restructuring does not significantly affect long-term project returns, and recommended gradually accumulating the stock for the long term. GUNKUL shares closed the morning session at 5.15 baht, up 0.10 baht or 1.98 percent.

Yuanta Securities assesses that the third-quarter 2026 earnings outlook for SET-listed companies remains notably strong compared with the same period last year, and recommends watching stocks expected to post robust Q3 2026 results with momentum likely to continue into next year. It gives weight to groups benefiting from the new investment cycle in both the public and private sectors, such as GULF, GUNKUL, SSP, EPG, SINGER, SGC, BEM, SMT, TEAM, MINT and CHG. It expects Q3 2026 earnings for the SET Index at 350 billion baht, up 39% year on year, which is high compared with the historical quarterly profit range of 150 to 250 billion baht. The gain is driven by the energy and petrochemical groups, which remain strong on rising oil prices late in the quarter and a low base last year due to border unrest and flooding in several areas. The groups expected to post profit growth both quarter on quarter and year on year are mid-to-small finance, hospitals, tourism, transport and autos, while the groups expected to see flat or slower year-on-year profit are construction contracting, entertainment and commercial banks. If Q3 2026 earnings come in as the research team expects, nine-month 2026 profit will reach 1.1 trillion baht. Looking to the fourth quarter of 2026, which is expected to keep growing year on year on accelerating investment by the public sector focused on energy infrastructure and by the private sector focused on upgrading production to serve the high-end semiconductor supply chain, full-year 2026 profit has a chance to set a new record of about 1.4 to 1.5 trillion baht, growing as much as 30% to 40% year on year, equal to earnings per share of 112 to 115 baht, compared with the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 110 baht per share. It is therefore highly likely that earnings upgrades will be seen, helping support the SET Index's movement over the remainder of the year.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) said in an analysis that the flood situation has widened, covering 30 provinces and 191 districts in Bangkok as of 1 October 2026, affecting 1.18 million households and about 3.35 million people. The impact on the economy remains limited, however, if the situation does not drag on and does not hit core production bases. The Bank of Thailand estimates the effect on GDP at about 0.03–0.10%, while the research team expects the impact on GDP to be no more than 0.1% and on SET earnings no more than 2%, far below the major floods of 2011. The key thing to watch is the length of production stoppages in the industrial sector rather than the amount of flooded area. At AMATA City Chonburi, about 150 factories were affected and 34 temporarily halted production, while KCE and HANA have some production bases in Ayutthaya. As for DELTA's plants in Bang Pu and Wellgrow, no water entered the factories and operations have returned to normal. Other groups saw fairly limited impact. Consumer finance firms are expected to see about a 2% hit to 2026 earnings for TIDLOR and MTC and 1% for SAWAD, while banks face their main risk from higher provisioning, with an estimated 1–2% impact on earnings, larger than the effect on interest income. BGRIM said its SPP power plants in Amata City Chonburi and its floating solar operations are still running normally. Bualuang sees the flood-driven volatility as a chance to gradually accumulate stocks with resilient earnings and quick recovery prospects, namely CRC, AWC, CENTEL, BDMS, BH, GULF, GUNKUL, DELTA, KCE and HANA, which still have support from demand for AI and data centers.

Finansia Securities said GULF is well positioned to link energy infrastructure and ICT businesses with AI, with a strong financial position and capacity to take on an additional 200-300 billion baht in debt. It estimates that added capacity under PDP 2026 could create roughly 10 baht per share of upside for GULF, assuming EGAT opens bidding for about 10GW of new renewable energy projects next year and GULF secures a 40% share, or roughly 4GW of solar projects, under power purchase agreements at a feed-in tariff of 2.16 baht per kWh. Investment is expected to require about 25-30 million baht per MW, with an IRR of approximately 12%. On the AI megatrend, electricity demand is expected to grow faster than GDP, especially demand for clean power from data centers, which are more power-intensive than general industry. Key catalysts include the new PDP, Direct PPAs for 2GW of data centers, and opportunities to invest in renewable energy projects in Europe over the next year. The research team maintained its Buy recommendation and raised its target price to 89.50 baht per share to reflect the opportunity to add capacity from bidding under the new PDP, as well as the acquisition of a 50% stake in solar and wind projects from GUNKUL, representing total capacity of 339.5MW on a proportional ownership basis. The acquired projects are estimated to have a combined NPV of about 9.7 billion baht based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 5.5%, adding roughly 0.5 baht per share, with net IBD/E of only 1.06 times.

Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.

Asia Plus Securities estimates the SET index target at the end of 2026 at 1,720 points, based on an assumption of 2026 earnings per share of 95 baht per share. It notes that the overall investment picture in the fourth quarter faces the risk of accelerating inflation from the Middle East war that has dragged on for more than 7 months, which pressured the average September 2026 WTI crude oil price to 95.6 dollars per barrel, up 50% compared with the previous year. Meanwhile, the United States is collecting import tariffs from trading partners at an effective rate as high as 12.5% to 19%, up from the previous 2% to 2.5%, and investment in data centers and AI infrastructure has pushed prices of software and computer equipment up 25.4% compared with the previous year, hitting a new high. On the Thai economy, the ratio of public debt to GDP stands at 67.45%, close to the fiscal discipline ceiling of 70%, while the impact of flooding is estimated at approximately 5 billion to 10 billion baht, which could drag third-quarter GDP growth down to 2.2% to 2.5%. The research department has adjusted its strategy from index selection to selective stock selection, focusing on stocks that benefit from the high season and the low base effect, namely CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON, and GUNKUL, and recommends holding cash at around 10% to 15% of the portfolio.

The Constitutional Court has ruled that the Election Commission's use of barcodes and QR codes on constituency MP ballots on 8 February 2026 does not violate the constitution, after the Ombudsman filed a petition arguing that the codes could be traced back to individual voters and would breach the principle of secret voting. The court found that in practice tracing is extremely difficult and that adequate safeguards are in place. That election therefore remains valid and does not need to be rerun, and the court merely recommended considering alternative security measures for future elections. The outcome removes the most severe scenario the capital markets had feared, namely a nationwide annulment of the election leading to a political and policy vacuum. With the ruling of no wrongdoing, it is expected to be positive for overall market sentiment and for foreign investor confidence thanks to reduced political risk, especially for large-cap stocks with high foreign holdings and sectors that depend on continuity of government policy, such as construction contractors, power, industrial estates and banks, since the government can continue administering the country as normal. The investment themes that benefit most include industrial estates AMATA and WHA, power producers GULF, GPSC, BGRIM and GUNKUL, contractors STECON, CK, PYLON and INSET, banks KBANK, KTB and KKP, and component makers DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, in overall trading yesterday, the Thai stock index closed at 1,594.30 points, down 8.07 points, while Thai Airways, or THAI, closed at 6.05 baht, down 0.10 baht or 1.36%, amid a backlog of more than 5,600 pieces of unclaimed baggage. Thai Airways management explained that the main cause was a shortage of manpower, especially baggage handling teams and staff holding ground operation licences who were affected by flooding and unable to travel to work. In addition, Bangkok is Thai Airways' main aviation hub, so when a large number of employees are affected at the same time, the operating system comes under heavy pressure. The issue arose while Thai Airways is pressing ahead with its rehabilitation plan and its operating results have begun returning to profit. What the market and investors must therefore monitor from here on is not just the numbers in the financial statements, but also the efficiency of the operating system and the ability to cope with a crisis.

Yuanta Securities said today's Cabinet meeting has three interesting issues to watch. The first is the allocation of central budget funds for flood relief worth 2 billion baht. The second is infrastructure investment to build flood drainage channels that bypass the inner city, worth 160 to 200 billion baht, which is expected to be positive for the construction contractor, construction materials, and TEAMG groups. The third is a household solar project covering 1 million households, plus Smart Grid and Smart Meter, worth 70 billion baht under the 200 billion baht emergency loan decree to restructure energy. The research team views these issues as positive for GUNKUL, SSP, TRT, AKR, FORTH, and SAMART, among others.

Today's top picks are led by GULF, which newspapers report is making an aggressive move by joining forces with GUNKUL to invest 466.5 million baht for 50% stakes in 12 solar and wind farm projects with a combined generating capacity of 673.4 megawatts, with power supply set to begin in 2570, securing long-term revenue from fixed power purchase agreements. Solar Farm rates range from 2.1579 to 2.1679 baht per kilowatt-hour, Solar BESS at 2.8331 baht, and wind power at 3.1014 baht. Meanwhile, GUNKUL is bringing GULF in as a joint venture partner to strengthen liquidity and expand financial headroom, supporting investment opportunities under the PDP 2026 plan, while accelerating the expansion of its clean energy portfolio to 3,000 megawatts by 2573. On another front, EGCO has closed a deal to advance its clean energy game in the United States, acquiring 49% of Pinnacle IV, with a generating capacity of 339 megawatts from two operational wind and solar power plants, pushing its renewable energy portfolio up to 1,785 megawatts, or 26% of total generating capacity. Brokerages estimate the new projects will boost profits by 6 to 8% and give an average target price of 145.67 baht. As for AOT, it reports that Suvarnabhumi saw flights surge to 347,000 in 11 months, with passengers reaching 59.6 million, and is accelerating a 152 billion baht investment plan for a major upgrade of Suvarnabhumi, with 12 billion baht to drive the East Expansion to raise passenger capacity to 70 million per year, along with a 120 billion baht South Terminal plan and infrastructure including a fourth runway at another 20 billion baht. The average target price is 71.50 baht, with a high of 85.00 baht.

GULF announced the purchase of a 50% investment stake in 12 renewable energy power plants from GUNKUL, with total contracted capacity of 673.4 megawatts, for a combined value of 466.5 million baht. The projects comprise 176.4 megawatts of solar power plants, 33.0 megawatts of solar plants equipped with energy storage systems, and 464 megawatts of wind power plants, representing an incremental capacity of 336.7 megawatts based on the acquired shareholding, on top of GULF's existing total capacity of 13.1 gigawatts. The projects are scheduled to begin operations between 2027 and 2030 under power purchase agreements with EGAT at fixed feed-in tariffs of 2.1679 baht per unit for solar plants, 2.8331 baht for solar plants with energy storage systems, and 3.1014 baht for wind plants. Analysts at TTB Wealth Securities estimate the deal will add upside of about 0.7 baht per share to the target price and boost GULF's profit by roughly 1.18 billion baht from 2031 onward, or 2% of current profit forecasts for that year. Meanwhile, analysts at Krungsri Securities view it as slightly positive for both companies, expecting the deal to add about 450 to 500 million baht in profit for GULF after all projects reach commercial operation date in 2030 onward, equivalent to an additional target price of about 0.33 baht. For GUNKUL, profit after 2030 is expected to decline only slightly, by about 100 million baht, with the target price falling 0.1 baht, though in the long term the reduced shareholding will enhance its debt capacity to support investment opportunities under PDP26 going forward. This marks GULF's second investment of 50% in projects GUNKUL won at auction in 2023, following the first investment in June 2025, when GULF bought a stake worth a combined 704.0 million baht in 410.2 megawatts of solar power plants and 50.6 megawatts of solar plants with energy storage systems, which is already included in the current target price of 75.0 baht per share.

Gunkul Engineering Public Company Limited, or GUNKUL, has signed power purchase agreements with the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, or EGAT, for an additional 261.8 megawatts of generating capacity under the RE Biglot Phase 2.1 renewable energy programme. The agreements run for 25 years and cover three wind power projects with a combined capacity of 242.4 megawatts and one solar power project with a capacity of 19.4 megawatts, with commercial operation scheduled from 2027 onward. Combined with three earlier projects totalling 57.2 megawatts, the company has now signed PPAs for every project under RE Biglot Phase 2.1, for a total contracted capacity of 319.0 megawatts. Chief Executive Officer Naruechon Damrongpiyawut said the company has also adjusted its shareholding in the power plants into joint ventures with Gulf Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, across 12 projects, representing total equity capacity of 336.7 megawatts and consideration of 467 million baht. Following the transaction, the company's renewable energy portfolio has total equity capacity of 2,101.2 megawatts, reaching its 2,000-megawatt target ahead of the 2027 deadline, and it has set a new goal of adding more than 50% in generating capacity to reach 3,000 megawatts by 2030.

Piriyapol Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, said the firm maintains a positive view on the Thai stock market, assessing that the SET still has an upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027 and could move close to its best-case index target of 1,780 points before shifting into a more range-bound movement. Under the base case, the SET is estimated at 1,710 points at the end of 2027, based on SET EPS of 106 baht, down 4% year on year, and a target PER of 16.0 times. Three key drivers are the global technology trend, the upcycle in global industry, and foreign capital inflows. Capital expenditure plans by major cloud service providers are expected to grow 93% in 2026 and another 41% in 2027, while Thailand's electronics exports are expected to grow 55% in 2026 and 40% in 2027. For the fourth-quarter 2026 strategy, a Barbell Strategy is recommended, focusing on energy and petrochemicals, namely PTT and PTTGC, alongside the power group GULF, GPSC and GUNKUL, before gradually shifting to sector rotation and stock selection in the first half of 2027 and increasing the weighting of dividend stocks as the core of the portfolio in the second half of 2027.

GUNKUL shares rose 5.83%, or 0.30 baht, to 5.45 baht at 10:49 a.m., with trading value of 481.84 million baht, from an opening price of 5.15 baht, a high of 5.45 baht and a low of 5.15 baht. Krungsri Securities said Gunkul Engineering is a stock whose fundamental analysts have raised their estimates, citing upside from outstanding power infrastructure work. Yesterday it initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and assessed that if the price breaks through 5.5 baht, the technical momentum will accelerate, recommending a Buy with a target price of 6.3 baht. Krungsri's fundamental analysts raised their profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 8% per year under the assumption of a backlog in the range of 5 to 6 billion baht and above, lifting the recent backlog base of around 4.5 billion baht. The stock is driven by three areas of power infrastructure supporting 390 billion baht in new investment: 1,500 MW of community solar power plants, a plan to expand purchases of electricity from public solar by 10,000 MW, and a five-year, 100 billion baht power system investment plan by EGAT and PEA.

The preliminary September composite Purchasing Managers' Index for both manufacturing and services in the United States jumped to 58.4, the highest in more than five years, up from 56.0 in August, according to a survey by S&P Global. As a result, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged past 5%, reaching a 19-year high, adding weight to expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again at its October meeting. The move pressured the Dow Jones Industrial Average to close at 51,511.59 points, down 352.10 points, or 0.68%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,706.03 points, down 58.61 points, or 0.75%, and the Nasdaq closed at 26,936.04 points, down 308.24 points, or 1.13%. The market was also pressured by Brent crude oil prices surging nearly 4% and concerns that the war between Iran and the United States could be prolonged, after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared at the United Nations General Assembly that Iran would not surrender to US pressure, just one day after President Donald Trump threatened that he could obliterate Iran. In European stock markets, the STOXX 600 closed at 639.92 points, down 2.86 points, or 0.44%, after oil prices rebounded past 100 dollars per barrel, with energy stocks rising 1.3%, while insurance stocks and construction and building materials stocks fell 1.7% and 1.3% respectively. As for the Thai stock market, the index is expected to move sideways, with GUNKUL among the stocks to watch after the Energy Regulatory Commission opened the way for the development of community solar projects with a capacity of 1,500 megawatts at a power purchase price of 2.1679 baht per unit. GUNKUL is ready to bid for several projects and take on EPC work fully, while its subsidiary TSE aims to add at least 100 megawatts of new power generation capacity through both community solar projects and direct power purchase agreements, or Direct PPAs, to serve electricity demand from the data center business.

The government is preparing to invest in a smart grid system, or intelligent power network, with short-term approval expected for a pilot project budget of approximately 10 billion to 20 billion baht, drawn from the 200 billion baht energy transition allocation under the 400 billion baht emergency loan decree. Concrete progress is expected to begin this year. Naphan Chaisaen, Deputy Managing Director of Research and a fundamental investment analyst covering the capital market at Bualuang Securities, told Than Hoon that the medium-term smart grid roadmap for 2022 to 2031 consists of five pillars. The first is Demand Response, which will replace household electricity meters with millions of smart meters, starting in high-usage areas such as Bangkok, its vicinity, major cities, and industrial estates in Rayong and Chachoengsao. Companies with potential in this area are FORTH, SKY, INSET, ALT, and PCC. Next is RE Forecasting, which involves system integrators such as TKC, SECURE, and SAMART. Then comes Microgrid and Prosumer, with GUNKUL and BGRIM. Next is ESS, or energy storage systems, with EA and GPSC. Finally, EV Integration involves FORTH and EA. Investment in the smart grid can also be accelerated without waiting for full clarity on the new Power Development Plan, and it will serve as key infrastructure to support the massive electricity consumption of data centers in the future without affecting electricity costs or the stability of power supply for the general public.

Krungsri Securities stated that the direction for operating Data Centers in Thailand is progressing continuously, with the draft Digital Infrastructure Services Business Act B.E. ...., the main law establishing the regulatory framework for data center, cloud service, and digital platform businesses. It requires operators to obtain licenses from the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society and to post collateral. Meanwhile, large data centers that use electricity up to the threshold must secure their own electricity and water sources, are prohibited from competing for water from public water sources, must use clean energy according to the proportion set by the state, must be located in urban planning areas permitted for factory operations, must conduct EIA/EHIA, and are required to store personal data of Thai individuals and Thai juristic persons within the country as a primary requirement. On the progress of subordinate legislation, the DC Board approved preliminary criteria requiring data centers using electricity from 0.5 megawatts and above to formally register with the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society, and instructed three subcommittees on infrastructure, urban planning, and environment to expedite the drafting of minimum standards for completion within February 2026. Meanwhile, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and the Department of Public Works and Town and Country Planning are reviewing a new urban planning draft designating zoning for large data centers in industrial zones in purple areas on the outskirts of the city, and acknowledged progress on the TH-DC Dashboard system by BDI in collaboration with the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society to serve as a national central database. The research department assesses this progress as overall positive and views it as positive sentiment for Infra Tech theme stocks, namely industrial estate developers AMATA and WHA, contractors STECON, PYLON, and INSET, power companies GPSC, BGRIM, WHAUP, and GUNKUL, as well as banks KBANK, KTB, and BBL.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) expects the regulations governing the 1,500MW community solar power procurement programme, announced in the Royal Gazette on 22 September 2026, to open for bids within this year. Each project is capped at 10MW and selection will be based on a quality-based competitive criteria. The brokerage views this positively for mid- to small-sized renewable power operators, since the small size of each project means developers must accumulate several projects before they become meaningful to earnings. It names GUNKUL, SSP and TSE as its top picks. Dr. Kathleen Maleenont, Chief Executive Officer of Thai Solar Energy (TSE), said the company aims to add at least 100 megawatts of offered generating capacity to serve demand for clean energy, particularly from data centres and the industrial sector, and is studying the use of battery energy storage systems alongside its projects. TSE is also pressing ahead with its Solar Big Lot programme of 28 projects with total offered capacity of 229.06MW, for which it has already signed 25-year power purchase agreements with the Provincial Electricity Authority. The first four projects, with combined capacity of 30.20MW, are expected to begin commercial operation in the second quarter of 2027, while the remaining 24 projects totalling 198.86MW will gradually reach commercial operation during 2028 to 2030. Once all 28 are complete, they are expected to generate more than 900 million to 1 billion baht in additional annual revenue. In addition, its community waste-to-energy plant with offered capacity of 8MW, which has secured a 28-year and 6-month concession with the Kor Rum subdistrict in Uttaradit province, is awaiting the signing of its power purchase agreement.

Foreign investors returned to buying Thai stocks, with net purchases of 52.68226 billion baht from the start of the year through September 22, comprising 6.60989403 trillion baht in buys and 6.55721177 trillion baht in sells. In September alone, net buying reached 1.31328 billion baht, from 626.56138 billion baht in buys and 625.24810 billion baht in sells, marking the highest foreign buying in two months and making the Thai stock market the most sought-after in ASEAN. The supporting factor came from Meta's launch of a new AI model with higher processing efficiency, offered free of charge, which the market expects will extend its advertising business and accelerate demand for AI CAPEX, benefiting Thai component stocks, especially DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, Infra Tech stocks drew support from the NBTC's proposal for a data center board to set new investment criteria, including requiring operators to have power purchase agreements and water supply certificates, to use domestic materials no less than 50%, and to add sustainability requirements. This is expected to boost industrial estate stocks such as AMATA and WHA, power stocks such as GULF, BGRIM and GUNKUL, bank stocks such as KBANK, KTB, KKP and BBL, as well as contractor stocks such as STECON, PYLON and INSET. At the same time, the Cabinet meeting approved extending the Thai Help Thai Plus 40/60 Phase 2 project by another 2 months, from October 1 to November 30, 2026, with a total budget of 42.69 billion baht, and approved an additional 700 baht per person in product purchase credit for state welfare cardholders for October only, bringing the total injection to 1,000 baht per person. This measure is expected to benefit retail stocks such as CPAXT, BJC and CPALL, as well as consumer goods stocks such as CBG and OSP, in a second-round effect.

September earnings estimates for the SET were revised up a further 0.7% month on month and 15.6% since the start of the year, driven mainly by sectors benefiting from higher energy and commodity prices. Petrochemicals led the way with a 6.2% month-on-month increase, as PTTGC rose 13% and IVL gained 7%. The energy sector rose 1.8%, led by refiners BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, which lifted the estimate for sector heavyweight PTT by a further 2%. The agricultural sector rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA's earnings estimate revised up 26%. However, the upward revisions are no longer as broad-based as before: fuel station operators PTG fell 26% and OR dropped 4%, while power plant groups SPP, BGRIM and GPSC slipped 2% and 1% respectively. In real estate, LH fell 1% and ORI dropped 13%, reflecting a growing divergence in earnings estimate trends between sectors and individual companies. Stocks still seeing upward revisions included AWC up 8%, CENTEL up 5%, BJC up 4%, CRC up 3%, AMATA up 8% and GUNKUL up 2%.

Solar stocks moved higher after the Energy Ministry prepared to include 10,000 MW of residential rooftop solar in the new Power Development Plan. At 11:23 a.m., GUNKUL rose 3.00% to 5.15 baht on turnover of 368.99 million baht, SPCG gained 1.83% to 11.10 baht, and GULF added 0.41% to 61.50 baht. The plan sets a size of about 5 kW per household, allows excess power to be sold to offset electricity bills, and supports funding while cutting permitting steps, with a goal of raising the clean energy share to nearly 50% within 10 years. Kasikorn Securities views the plan as positive for solar distributors and installers such as GUNKUL, SPCG and GULF, but sees rising long-term risk for conventional power plants. Krungsri Securities views it as positive sentiment for GUNKUL even though rooftop solar accounts for only about 6-7% of total revenue, and keeps its earnings estimate and target price for GUNKUL at 5.4 baht per share, supported by a current backlog of about 4.5 billion baht, with large project bidding expected to gradually open from 2027 onward.

Two brokers hold a positive view on power-plant stocks after the Energy Minister prepares to expand the buyback quota for electricity from public solar rooftops to 10,000 MW from 500 MW previously, under a feed-in tariff of 2.2 baht per unit, along with an extension of the power purchase agreement buyback term to 20 years from 10 years. Krungsri Securities said it sees positive sentiment, especially for GUNKUL, even though the solar rooftop business accounts for only about 6-7% of total revenue, but it still gets a boost from the policy of installing solar rooftops with tax deductions of up to 200,000 baht per household and installation subsidies of 30,000 baht per household from the 400-billion-baht loan emergency decree. It also recommends buying GULF with a 2027 target price of 77 baht and GPSC with a 2027 target price of 61 baht as top picks on the data center investment theme. Asia Plus Securities is bullish on the renewable energy group, seeing the expansion of the framework to 10,000 MW as reflecting a significant upgrade of the public solar market, and the extension of the purchase term from 10 years to 20 years as increasing the attractiveness and incentive for household investment. This is therefore a positive factor for solar EPC operators and related equipment distributors such as GUNKUL, SOLAR, SPCG and SSP. Its research team picks GUNKUL as top pick with a target price of 6.4 baht, and sees the medium- to long-term investment theme extending from the solar group to smart grid and battery energy storage systems, where BGRIM and GPSC have strengths in smart grid and BESS, while GULF has both solar rooftop and solar-plus-BESS businesses.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) has revised up its earnings estimate for the Thai stock market in September by 0.7% month-on-month and 15.6% since the start of the year. Piriyapon Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management, said the main driver came from groups benefiting from energy and commodity prices amid prolonged wars. The petrochemical group was raised 6.2% month-on-month, led by PTTGC up 13% and IVL up 7%, while the energy group rose 1.8% on refineries BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, pushing PTT up another 2%. The agricultural group rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA raised 26%. On the other side, groups whose costs are linked to energy prices were revised down, led by PTG down 26% and OR down 4%, as well as SPP power plants such as BGRIM down 2% and GPSC down 1%. Meanwhile, businesses sensitive to the economy such as property, LH down 1% and ORI down 13%, also faced downgrades. This reflects a clearer divergence in earnings direction between industry groups and individual companies. The strategy therefore focuses on Earnings Leaders with strong profits. CRC is expected to post core profit growth of 25 to 30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 from same-store sales growth of around 2% and revenue growth of about 4% year-on-year. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% year-on-year. BH and BDMS are entering a seasonal profit recovery period. AOT, AWC and CENTEL benefit from tourism entering the high season, with AOT's winter slots from October 2026 to March 2027 up 4% year-on-year and AWC's RevPAR in July to August up 23% year-on-year, while CENTEL rose 5 to 6% year-on-year. AMATA is supported by data center demand adding clarity to profits, and GUNKUL benefits from a recovery in wind power plants along with investment opportunities in transmission systems.

The National Energy Policy Council, or NEPC, approved expanding the framework for promoting electricity generation from public solar to 10,000 megawatts, up from the previous 5,000 megawatts, covering the period 2026–2028. The total already includes 500 megawatts of existing purchase projects. The council set the buyback rate under the Net Billing scheme at 2.20 baht per unit, capped at no more than 5 kilowatts per meter, and extended the purchase period to 20 years from 10 years, covering rooftop installations, ground-mounted systems, and floating solar. The NEPC also tasked agencies with preparing supporting plans within one month, covering real-time electricity generation forecasting, control of transmission and distribution systems, installation of smart meters and smart grids, and battery energy storage systems, or BESS, to accommodate distributed generation. The research team at Asia Plus Securities views this as positive for the renewable energy group, noting that the expansion from 5,000 megawatts to 10,000 megawatts reflects a significant upgrade of the public solar market, and that extending power purchases from 10 years to 20 years will improve the returns and investment incentives for households. This is therefore a positive factor for contractors installing rooftop solar power systems, or Solar EPC, and for distributors of related equipment such as GUNKUL, SOLAR, SPCG, and SSP. At the same time, the increase in distributed generation will give energy management systems, smart grids, and battery energy storage systems a key role in the next phase, in line with the direction of the PDP2026 plan. BGRIM and GPSC have strengths in smart grids, energy management systems, and BESS, while GULF has related businesses in both Solar Rooftop and Solar plus BESS. In the short term, this is expected to be positive sentiment for stocks in the solar business chain, and the research team has chosen GUNKUL as its Top Pick on the strength of its Solar EPC business and comprehensive equipment distribution.

The equity and derivatives market strategist at InnovestX Research, InnovestX Securities, said efforts to push Thailand as a regional data center hub are taking clearer shape after the first meeting of the Data Center Business Policy Committee resolved to accelerate integration of data and legal provisions into a single dashboard, in order to set a clear industrial strategic framework within one month. The criteria define data centers using more than 2 MW of electricity as industrial businesses, set resource utilization fees to reflect true direct and indirect costs, and impose strict energy conditions to support Green Data Centers, including a separate electricity tariff category for the group, a mandatory clean energy share of no less than 60% to meet Net Zero goals, and tighter standards for backup power systems. Four subcommittees will be set up covering the economy, infrastructure, land and buildings, and the environment to draw up technical standards, and decisive measures are being prepared to suspend water and electricity allocation for projects not yet under construction if they fail the criteria. InnovestX assesses that these clearer policies will create significant positive ripple effects for two main industries. The first is clean energy, where the 60% minimum clean energy requirement will turn clean power from an option into a necessity, sharply driving real demand. The second is industrial estates, where classifying data centers as industrial businesses will draw foreign direct investment, or FDI, into leading estates equipped with smart grid networks and environmental management, leaving estates reliant on fossil fuels far behind. The investment strategy therefore recommends Selective Buy, focusing on accumulating leaders in these two main industries. For industrial estates, it favors companies with stable smart grid networks sufficient for Tier 3-4 data centers, joint ventures with multinational technology firms, and their own water recycling management systems, namely AMATA and WHA. For clean energy, it favors companies making progress on direct power purchase agreements, or Direct PPAs, with global hyperscalers, with high ESG scores and green certificates, and investing in battery energy storage systems, or BESS, to maintain the stability of electricity supplied to data centers, namely GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, as well as GUNKUL, a contractor for high-voltage transmission line systems.

GUNKUL executives explained at a Virtual Conference hosted by Bualuang Securities that the PDP2026 plan is still in its Public Hearing phase in September 2026, with a target to submit it to the Cabinet in November or by the end of this year at the latest. As for the Community Solar scheme, auction results are expected by late 2026, PPA signing in mid-2027, and investment recognition beginning in 2028. Meanwhile, the Direct PPA framework is expected to become clear by the end of 2026. The major auction rounds under PDP2026, covering 2,700MW of wind and 24,000MW of solar, are likely to take clearer shape in 2027, with the auction expected to open around mid-year, the first batch of PPAs signed in 3Q27, and power delivery beginning in 2029-30. Executives confirmed the company's historical auction win share of about 10%, in line with EPC assumptions. The company also continues to focus on smart meters and 230-500kV high-voltage grid upgrade work, where fewer than 10 competitors operate, supporting the Grid Modernization/EEC Fast-track assumption of 2.7 billion baht per year. On Data Centers, regulations must still be awaited before auctions open, with investment estimated at about 5-6 million US dollars per MW, excluding GPU and electrical/EPC system work, which accounts for 10-15% of total investment. Current staffing can support up to 500MW of private-sector Data Center work. In the short term, 3Q26 remains strong, with wind power generation in just July and August matching the whole of 3Q25, boosting the profit share from the Wind JV, expected to rise to 327 million baht from 132 million baht in 2Q26. Core profit in 3Q26 is expected at 618 million baht, up 35% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter, with a chance of setting a new high. The EPC backlog stands at 5.0 billion baht, with about 1.6 billion baht expected to be recognized in 3Q26. The recommendation remains Buy with a target price of 6.50 baht, and the utilities sector weighting remains Overweight.

Land and Houses Securities issued an analysis recommending the purchase of two stocks, BDMS and GUNKUL, giving BDMS a target price of 25.00 baht, with support levels estimated at 19.3 and 19.7 baht and resistance at 21.0 and 22.3 baht. It expects third-quarter 2026 profit to recover both year on year and quarter on quarter, after the second quarter of 2026 marked the year's low point amid the start of HIGH SEASON for Thai patients, the recovery of foreign patients, and easing pressure from Cambodian patients. July revenue accelerated 8% year on year from only about 1% year on year in the first half, supported by a 9% year-on-year rise in Thai patients and a 6% year-on-year increase in foreign patients. For GUNKUL, it set a target price of 6.30 baht, with support estimated at 4.8 and 4.9 baht and resistance at 5.4 and 5.6 baht. Short-term profit momentum in the third quarter of 2026 is positive thanks to the EPC business, which has a large BACKLOG awaiting revenue recognition, and seasonal factors for WIND FARM, where wind speeds are expected to increase. Full-year profit is growing more strongly than the sector on the back of the EPC business, and the company is expected to benefit from the PDP2026 plan, including the power transmission system project, DIRECT PPA, the selection of new renewable energy projects, and policies supporting SOLAR ROOFTOP. There is also a long-term profit driver from the SOLAR project in the Philippines totalling 784 MWE with a combined value of 7.5 billion baht, which secures a fixed electricity rate of 3.53 baht per unit for 20 years and is set to begin construction late this year.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.

GUNKUL has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Philippine government to develop the 784.1-megawatt Laguna Lake Floating Solar project, holding a 40% stake under a 20-year power purchase agreement at 6.53 pesos per unit. It targets commercial operation in the fourth quarter of 2027 and full-year profit recognition from 2028. Among other developments in ASEAN this week, Thailand's cabinet approved financial assistance of 1.78367 billion baht to Laos for construction of the Chiang Man–Luang Prabang bridge, linking the route from Nan province. In the first five years, tourist numbers are expected to rise by an average of 80,000 per year, generating about 360 million baht in annual revenue. GULF, meanwhile, has teamed up with Singtel to develop the VTS submarine cable connecting Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore, with commercial service due to open in 2030. CRC has invested a cumulative total of more than 49 billion baht in Vietnam, expanding its network to more than 300 outlets across 26 provinces, and aims by 2028 to open 10 to 12 additional GO! branches and another 23 to 25 mini go! branches. Singapore is preparing to raise ministerial pay by up to 9%, effective October 15, after 15 years of being frozen. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will receive a 64% increase, bringing his pay to 3.6 million Singapore dollars a year, seven times that of the US leader, and has announced he will donate the increase to charity for five years. The Philippines' unemployment rate jumped to 6% in July, the highest in four years, after the economy grew just 2.3% in the second quarter.

The draft national power development plan, or PDP 2026, is entering the public consultation process, setting out a 25-year long-term framework aimed at reaching the Net Zero target by 2050. The highlight is the first 12 years, from 2026 to 2037, which sets total new generating capacity of approximately 50,900 MW, comprising 9,100 MW of combined-cycle power plants, 300 MW of small nuclear power, 24,300 MW of solar, 2,700 MW of wind, and 14,500 MW of large-scale battery energy storage systems, or BESS. If the plan proceeds as laid out, cumulative generating capacity in 2037 will rise to approximately 115,635 MW, with investment across the various projects in a range of roughly 360 billion to 700 billion baht. Yuanta Securities (Thailand) sees the new PDP draft as aiming to raise the share of renewable energy from about 15% of generating capacity at present to approximately 60–70%, and possibly as high as 80% when other zero-carbon energy sources are included. InnovestX, meanwhile, has picked GULF as its top stock in the group and sees GUNKUL as having the potential to surprise on both its renewable power plant business and its power transmission system construction work. Asia Plus Securities assigns GULF a fundamental value of 80 baht and GUNKUL 6.40 baht, with brokers favouring the group of GULF, GUNKUL, GPSC and BGRIM. GPSC is currently studying the development of small modular nuclear reactors, or SMRs, together with Denmark's Seaborg Technologies. Power plant stocks have risen sharply since the start of the year, and as of 9 September 2026, GUNKUL stood at 5.20 baht, up 173.68%; TSE at 0.92 baht, up 95.74%; SSP at 6.05 baht, up 86.73%; BGRIM at 21.00 baht, up 48.94%; and GPSC at 51.25 baht, up 42.36%.

Asia Plus Securities said the Ministry of Finance is preparing to open registration for household Solar Rooftop installation subsidies in mid-October 2026, initially for 1 million entitlements with a total budget of 50 billion baht, or 50,000 baht per household, and is considering raising this to 1.5 million entitlements, with a target of completing disbursements by the end of 2027. The government will pay out only once the system is connected to the grid, and a 5-kilowatt system is expected to generate about 1,000 baht per month from selling power back to EGAT over 25 to 30 years. Government Savings Bank, GH Bank and BAAC will extend loans to low-income participants, who will use the electricity sale proceeds to repay the bank debt first. Meanwhile, the power utilities are preparing to invest in replacing meters and developing Smart Grid and Battery Storage systems. The government is also considering cutting customs duties on components that cannot yet be produced domestically and using BOI measures to support domestic solar production. The research team views this as positive for the renewable energy group, especially operators with Solar Rooftop and EPC businesses such as GUNKUL, SOLAR and SPCG, and as positive sentiment for CRC, COM7, DOHOME and HMPRO. Considering the scale of the programme, the government is targeting 1 million households with an average installed size of 5 kW per household, implying total installed capacity of 5,000 MW, which is higher than the existing 500 MW public Solar Rooftop power purchase programme. It sees GUNKUL as the standout beneficiary thanks to its fully integrated business chain and names it the Top Pick for news-driven trading. However, GUNKUL's core profit still comes from its renewable power generation business and large EPC projects, making this scheme an opportunity to supplement growth rather than a main profit driver.

Today, power plant stocks rose, led by GULF up 0.80% to 63.00 baht, GPSC up 1.00% to 50.75 baht, and GUNKUL up 0.98% to 5.15 baht. After the public hearing on the draft PDP2026, confidence grew that it would open a new investment cycle, supporting demand from EVs and data centers. Kasikorn Securities maintains a positive view, selecting GULF as a top pick. Krungsri Securities is neutral on the hearing outcome but sees positive factors from the consideration of extending the IPP contracts for two plants: Glow IPP of GPSC (677 MW) and Ratchaburi power plant of RATCH (3,645 MW), which are not yet fully reflected in stock prices. Meanwhile, details of the Direct PPA, which has been expanded to 8,000 MW, and the Grid-Scale BESS projects open to private investment are still to be monitored. New capacity is not yet included in estimates, so there is room for upward revisions. Krungsri Securities maintains a Buy on GULF with a target of 77 baht and on GPSC with a target of 61 baht in 2027.

The new Power Development Plan, or PDP2569, is entering a crucial phase, with public hearings scheduled for September 8, 2026, before being submitted to the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) for consideration by the end of this year. Amid rising electricity demand from data centers, which could reach 6.8 to 19.8 gigawatts by 2050, and despite an increase in clean energy, natural gas will continue to play a significant role with a capacity of 16.8 to 24.5 gigawatts. Meanwhile, the transmission grid has become a key infrastructure that must be developed in tandem. Analysts at Bualuang Securities noted that the Direct PPA policy, approved by the NEPC on July 15, 2026, will create opportunities for power plant profits, particularly for GPSC, which could benefit the most if it secures an additional 2,000 to 3,000 megawatts of capacity, potentially boosting its 2025 earnings by 25.8% to 37.5% from the base case. The standout stocks in this round are GULF and GUNKUL, with GULF having the potential to secure up to 6,000 megawatts from PDP2026 and Direct PPA by 2028, which could increase its net profit by approximately 12.1%.

Brokers view the PDP2026 plan as positive for the power plant sector. The plan adds 50,900 megawatts of capacity in the first 12 years (2026-2037), focusing on solar power at 24,300 megawatts, solar with battery storage at 14,500 megawatts, natural gas at 9,100 megawatts, wind at 2,700 megawatts, and small nuclear at 300 megawatts. For the latter 13 years, there are four scenarios, including a maximum infrastructure investment of 700 billion baht. Auctions for power plants are expected to open in 2027. Brokers indicate that GULF and GUNKUL are the standout stocks that will benefit from this plan.

Naruchon Damrongpiyawut, Chief Executive Officer of Gunkul Engineering Public Company Limited (GUNKUL), is advancing the expansion of its clean energy portfolio in the Philippines through the Laguna Lake Floating Solar project under the Green Energy Auction Program Round 4 (GEA-4), with a capacity of 784.1 megawatts attributable to its shareholding. GUNKUL holds a 40% stake in the project through Gunkul International (Mauritius). The project has a 20-year power purchase agreement with a fixed tariff of up to 6.53 pesos, or approximately 3.53 baht per unit, and targets commercial operation date in the fourth quarter of 2027, with full-year profit recognition expected from 2028. Naruchon views the Philippines as a high-potential market, and this investment marks a significant starting point for expanding its renewable energy business, following its portfolio in Japan, Vietnam, and Malaysia, while continuing to pursue additional clean energy project opportunities.

TQR Quality Organization received the Outstanding Corporate Non-Life Insurance Broker Award for 2025 from the Office of the Insurance Commission (OIC), reflecting its leadership as a comprehensive reinsurance broker operating professionally, while leveraging technology and AI to develop products and services to drive the industry sustainably. Meanwhile, WHAUP reported net profit of 532 million baht for Q2/2026, up 276%, driven by growth in water sales in Thailand and Vietnam and the recovery of the Gheco-One power plant, which has returned to full operation. GUNKUL is jointly developing the Laguna Lake Floating Solar project, the largest floating solar project in ASEAN, located in the Philippines, expanding its renewable energy base from Japan, Vietnam, and Malaysia into the high-potential Philippine market.

GUNKUL reported strong 2Q26 results, with total revenue of 2.82 billion baht, up 42% year-on-year, and net profit of 575 million baht, up 18%. GPM stood at 33%, down due to the increased proportion of EPC revenue, which has lower margins than the power plant business. For 3Q26, earnings momentum is expected to improve from the wind business, as electricity generated in July-August already equals the entire 3Q25 quarter, making September output an additional upside. The financial position remains strong, with Net IBD/Equity at only 0.81 times, below the covenant of 3.0 times. The sale of treasury shares in 1H26 generated 914.5 million baht, reducing interest expenses by approximately 30-35 million baht per year. The company has a total attributable capacity of 2,121 megawatts and targets an additional 88 equity MW COD by end-2026. Meanwhile, the Laguna Floating Solar project in the Philippines, with a capacity of 784.1 megawatts and a 40% stake, is preparing to issue NTP in late October to early November 2026, targeting COD in December 2027. The EPC business has a current backlog of approximately 4.5 billion baht, with a target to increase to 5-6 billion baht by year-end. Medium-to-long-term positive factors include PDP 2026, which aims to add 33-49 gigawatts of clean energy capacity by 2050, Direct PPA, and Data Centers, with expected electricity demand exceeding 8.6 gigawatts by 2050, and a plan to invest approximately 31 billion baht in transmission systems in the EEC. Recommendation: "Buy" as the technical correction has formed support at 4.80 and reversed in a V-shape, with resistance at 5.20/5.35.

Analysts from Asia Plus Securities stated that the review of criteria for setting up data centers in Bangkok's urban areas, following environmental and safety complaints, will push operators to relocate investments to the EEC zone, which has more complete infrastructure. It is expected that power plant stocks GPSC, EGCO, RATCH, and GUNKUL will benefit in the long term. Meanwhile, GULF has a data center already in operation with 25 megawatts in Samut Prakan, and is developing another 38 megawatts in the EEC, with plans to expand by an additional 100 megawatts. BGRIM has a joint project with Digital Edge of 96 megawatts in the EEC, with the first phase of 48 megawatts expected to begin partial operations in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration is preparing to temporarily suspend the consideration of permits for new data center projects in order to review urban planning, safety, and environmental regulations, following complaints from local communities. Currently, there are approximately 30–40 data centers in the area, most of which are legacy facilities or internal corporate cloud systems. Meanwhile, six large-scale stand-alone projects applied for permits in 2021–2022; three have been approved, and the other three are under suspension or review. This measure is not a construction ban but aims to close legal loopholes. It is expected to redirect investment to areas with better infrastructure, such as the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) or industrial estates. Notably, GULF already operates a 25-megawatt data center in Samut Prakan and is developing another 38 megawatts in the EEC, with plans to expand by an additional 100 megawatts. BGRIM, in partnership with Digital Edge, has a 96-megawatt project in the EEC, with the first phase of 48 megawatts expected to begin partial operations in the fourth quarter of 2026. GPSC, EGCO, RATCH, and GUNKUL are also poised to benefit from this business in the long term.