Kasikorn Securities Maintains Positive View on Banking Sector, Picks KTB and KKP as Top Picks

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Summary · why it matters

Kasikorn Securities stated in an analysis that the third-quarter 2026 profits of the seven banks under its coverage will come in at 49.4 billion baht, down 2% QoQ and 15% YoY, with the main pressure coming from lower fair value through profit or loss gains and lower investment gains QoQ as government bond yields rose. However, core operating performance is expected to improve QoQ on an anticipated 2bps QoQ rise in net interest margin thanks to lower interest costs, and a credit cost that is expected to fall 7bps on smaller management overlay provisions compared with the second quarter of 2026. Looking at individual stocks, KKP, TISCO and TTB are expected to report standout YoY third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 25%, 6% and 5% respectively, while BBL, KTB and SCB are expected to see significant YoY profit declines on weaker net interest margins and lower realized fair value through profit or loss and investment gains. For the fourth-quarter 2026 and 2027 outlook, banking sector profits are expected to remain supported by easing interest costs and credit costs gradually returning to normal levels, with loan growth expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter of 2026 driven mainly by corporate and government loans. The research team maintains a positive view on the banking sector, selecting KTB and KKP as top picks, and has shifted the valuation base year for all banking stocks from mid-2027 to end-2027, raising individual target prices by 1–3% without any change to earnings forecasts.

Impact on assets 6

Financials▲ · 4 stocks
Digital Finance & Tokenization▼ · 2 stocks
Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

BBL expected to see significant YoY Q3 2026 profit decline on weaker NIM and lower FVTPL/investment gains.

SCB X Public Company Limited
SCB
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

SCB expected to see significant YoY Q3 2026 profit decline on weaker NIM and lower FVTPL/investment gains.

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