Kasikorn Securities says floods have limited impact on tourism, recommends accumulating AWC, CENTEL, THAI

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Kasikorn Securities stated that the impact of the flood situation on tourism businesses remains manageable, with tourism operations continuing as normal. According to flood reports, the situation has expanded to cover 25 provinces and Bangkok, resulting in 8 deaths across 3 provinces, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation as of September 26. About 84,600 people from 27,100 households in 21 provinces have been affected. During September 16–26, the floods affected a cumulative total of more than 102,000 people across 36 provinces. The three airlines under analysis did not cancel flights during September 25–27, though some ground operations were affected. All three airlines allowed passengers to change flights within one week at no additional cost, while THAI allowed changes to flights departing from Thailand through October 11. Hotel operators reported no property damage from the floods and no significant impact on revenue during September 25–27, with booking cancellations at about 2–15% of total bookings, mostly at upcountry hotels, partially offset by guests extending their stays, equivalent to about 20–30% of cancellations. The research team expects the floods to have a limited impact on third-quarter 2569 profits for the tourism sector, as the most severely affected period lasted only about 3 days. It therefore maintains a neutral view on the tourism sector and continues to favour hotel stocks, viewing the decline in hotel share prices due to the floods as an investment opportunity. It recommends BUY on AWC with a target price of 3.74 baht, BUY on CENTEL with a target price of 48.11 baht, and BUY on THAI with a target price of 6.78 baht.

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