Krungsri Securities estimates that flooding will affect GDP by about 0.2% if the situation does not drag on beyond one to two weeks, and views it as a factor pressuring bank stocks in the short term. The banking sector index has fallen about 7% from its peak, and between September 22 and 30, 2026, KTB shares dropped 8.33% while KBANK fell 9.34%, the largest declines among the banks Krungsri studied in this round. Krungsri believes selling in bank stocks has already largely reflected concerns over the flood situation compared with past events, but it cannot yet confirm that the bottom has passed, so it recommends a strategy of gradual accumulation rather than chasing prices. It gives KTB first priority after its 8.33% decline, on the chance it benefits from government-related lending and funding demand for post-flood recovery, followed by KBANK, which fell 9.34% and could be considered for more accumulation if concerns about asset quality, especially among SME customers, begin to ease. Krungsri noted that the roughly 0.2% hit to GDP is significantly lower than the 2011 floods, which were estimated to affect GDP by about 3.0%. The key issues to watch are credit costs and asset quality, with the crucial condition being that the flood situation must not drag on to the point where banks must raise credit costs or significantly cut profit forecasts.
Kasikornbank Public Company LimitedKrungsri favors KBANK for gradual accumulation, but flags asset-quality/SME credit-cost risk from floods; net mixed.
Krung Thai Bank Public Company LimitedKrungsri gives KTB first priority, citing potential government-related lending and post-flood recovery funding demand.
