Krungsri turns bullish on agriculture sector, top picks for El Niño theme: TVO, STA, NER

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Summary · why it matters

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited disclosed that its research division has raised its investment weighting for the agriculture and food sector to Bullish, reflecting Buy ratings on most stocks in the group. It identified TVO, STA and NER as the biggest beneficiaries of this El Niño theme, and upgraded TVO to Buy with a 2027 forecast target price of 36.00 baht, from Neutral at 31.00 baht. STA and NER remain rated Buy on expectations that rubber prices will stay elevated longer than the phenomenon itself. TFG remains a fundamental Top pick with a target price of 14.20 baht, supported by its retail branch expansion plan, cost locking through the third quarter of 2027, and a dividend yield of about 8% per year paid quarterly, which is not driven by the El Niño theme. Meanwhile, CPC and NCEP assess a more than 90% chance of a Very strong El Niño occurring between September 2026 and January 2027, and put the odds at 69% that the October to December 2026 period will be more severe than any El Niño since 1950. Impacts vary by product category. The USDA expects global soybean output in 2026/27F to reach a record 442.3 million tonnes, while global palm oil stocks have a stocks-to-use ratio of 18.3%, the lowest in 10 years, and global rubber supply is shrinking as Indonesia's output falls from 2.0 million tonnes in 2025 to 1.5 million tonnes in 2026F. Feed costs will begin to affect CPF, GFPT and TFG from the fourth quarter of 2027 onward.

Impact on assets 10

Consumer Staples± Mixed · 3 stocks
Materials▲ · 1 stocks
Synthetic Biology (non-pharma)▲ · 1 stocks
Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 1 stocks
Financials▲ · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 2

Off-coverage companies 1

Caspian Pipeline ConsortiumPrivate± Mixed
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