Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited

Tisco Securities sees Thai stocks entering a recovery phase, with listed-company profits in the second quarter of 2026 setting record highs in revenue, net profit and EBITDA, while valuations remain attractive. Excluding DELTA, the Thai stock market trades at a 12-month forward PER of just 11.8 times, and about 60% of Thai listed companies still trade below their book value. The Thai market also offers an average dividend yield of around 3.9%, higher than the regional average of about 3.4%. Apichat Poobanjerdkul, senior director of the strategic analysis department at Tisco Securities, said the Thai economy and stock market are entering a period of stronger fundamentals, driven by private-sector investment, the AI and data center investment cycle, and continued growth in electronic component exports. He added that there is also long-term upside from large-scale infrastructure investment, especially the PDP 2026 power development plan, which is expected to involve investment worth as much as 2 to 3 trillion baht and is initially expected to add no less than 0.5% per year to GDP growth, making it the most important structural positive factor for Thailand in several decades. Tisco Securities assesses key support levels at 1,560 to 1,580 points and 1,540 points, with resistance at 1,610, 1,630 and 1,660 points respectively. It recommends gradually accumulating during market weakness, and its top picks for October are BH, DELTA, KBANK, PTTEP, SJWD, TRUE and TVO.

Brokers remain positive on agricultural and food stocks, with natural rubber prices up 2.8% from the previous week to a 13-year high on tight supply after heavy rain and flooding in growing areas. Sugar prices rose 1.4% on concerns over a super El Nino phenomenon, with the US Department of Agriculture expecting Thai sugar output in the 2026/27 production year to fall by about 15-17%. Domestic broiler prices held steady at 45.50 baht per kilogram, above the cost of about 37.50 baht per kilogram, and marked their highest level in more than three years since June 2023. Thai pork prices fell 5.7% from the previous week to 66.50 baht per kilogram on heavy rain and slowing purchasing power ahead of the vegetarian festival. Krungsri Securities maintains a positive view on the agricultural and food sector, picking TFG as its top long-term stock with a target price of 14.20 baht, an expected dividend yield of about 8% and quarterly dividend payments, while also highlighting TVO, STA and NER as stocks that benefit from the super El Nino theme. Pi Securities gives the meat sector a market-weight rating and picks GFPT as its top stock, with Thai chicken exports in September worth a total of about 401 million US dollars, up 6% from a year earlier.

Trinity Securities assesses that the Thai stock market index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will fluctuate within a range of 1,500-1,700 points, noting that the current index level has fallen into a zone where reward clearly outweighs risk. For those who still hold Thai stocks at low levels, or who need to invest to reduce taxes this year, the current index area is seen as an opportunity to gradually accumulate (Buy the Dip). As for the investment strategy for the fourth quarter, the research department recommends a defensive approach focused on its quarterly recommended stocks, namely BTG, TFG, AWC, ERW, CRC, COM7, STA, TVO, AMATA and STECON.

Tisco Securities estimates that Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited, or TVO, has passed its peak in the second quarter of 2026 but is still set for another good quarter, expecting to report normalized profit in the third quarter of 2026 of 729 million baht, up 69% year on year but down 6% quarter on quarter. The research team expects sales of 8,649 million baht, up 4.4% from the previous quarter on higher selling prices. Soybean meal prices are expected to rise 6% to 15.7 baht per kilogram from 14.7 baht per kilogram, while sales volume may decline by a low single-digit percentage because animal feed producers are opting for spot purchases rather than forward contracts, amid higher CBOT soybean prices. Sales volume of soybean oil is expected to increase on bottled oil sales under the Thai Plus project and a narrow retail price gap of only about 2 to 3 baht between palm oil and soybean oil. The research team expects gross margin to fall 99 basis points from the previous quarter to 12.7%, but still 86 basis points above the third quarter of 2025, on soybean costs up about 5%, and expects a net margin of 8.4%, compared with 7.6% in the third quarter of 2025 and 10.6% in the second quarter of 2026, under the assumption of no foreign exchange gains. For the fourth quarter of 2026, management said costs will continue to rise, while the benefit of El Niño for soybean oil is expected to materialize in the first quarter of 2027 instead of the fourth quarter of 2026, because Malaysia's palm oil stocks remain high. The research team expects net profit in the fourth quarter of 2026 of about 420 million baht and maintains its Buy recommendation with a target price of 33.75 baht, based on comparable valuation at a P/E of 12.8 times against the five-year historical average, supported by sales volume growth from full capacity at its 7,000-tonne-per-day soybean crushing line, a dividend yield of about 8%, and the chance of benefiting from El Niño on soybean oil prices in the first half of 2027.

Mr. Wikit Thirawannarat, IAA, Assistant Managing Director and Head of Investment Strategy at Bualuang Securities, unveiled a portfolio-adjustment strategy for the final stretch of the year in the fourth quarter of 2026, recommending investors rotate among sectors in step with the market. Stocks with their main revenue from overseas remain the key driver, because domestic purchasing power alone is not enough to move the market. The groups that outperformed the market in the third quarter of 2026 were those tied to the global economy and commodities, including petrochemicals, refineries, shipping stocks such as RCL and PRM, agricultural and food-export names such as TVO, TU and ITC, and electronic components such as KCE and HANA. Meanwhile, groups tied to domestic consumption, such as telecoms ADVANC and TRUE and retailers CPALL and CPAXT, rose more slowly than the market. Three investment themes lead the way. First, refineries and petrochemicals, where supply is tight and global demand is strong, with TOP trading at a price-to-book ratio of only about 0.7 times and paying consistent dividends. Second, power plants, expected to be the star performer in the fourth quarter, driven by the build-out of data centers and production bases by foreign companies, clarity on direct PPA contracts, and the power development plan. Third, energy and technology infrastructure, which benefits from transmission systems, substations, smart grids, smart meters, rooftop solar and submarine cable projects. As for industrial estates, after a big run-up in the first and second quarters of 2026, they are expected to enter a period of consolidation and rebound within a sideways range. On external factors, the surge in bond yields worldwide is a highlight to watch; if yields start to fall, that would be a key turning point for the stock market. The Bank of Japan may keep raising rates through the middle of next year, ending at around 1.75 to 2.0 percent, South Korea at 3.5 percent, Europe at 3.0 percent in the first quarter of next year, and the US Federal Reserve may hike another one to two times. As for new US tariffs, the assessment is that they will target specific rival countries rather than be imposed across the board, so Thailand is likely to escape them and may even benefit from cheaper imported raw materials such as soybeans and soybean meal, which would lower animal-feed costs and support meat-export groups such as chicken and pork. On investment strategy, short-term traders are advised to rotate through sector rotation, alternating between banks and commodities, while long-term investors are advised to focus on infrastructure and power plants, with standout large-cap stocks capable of winning projects and co-investing in infrastructure being GULF and PTT.

Krungsri Securities said in an analysis that over the past week rubber prices rose 4.8% week-on-week on tight supply after heavy rain and flooding in Thailand and Vietnam reduced tapping, compounded by El Niño concerns and rising orders from tire makers stockpiling raw materials for the fourth quarter of 2026. Sugar prices rose 1.0% week-on-week, extending gains for a sixth consecutive week, on concerns that El Niño and wildfires in Brazil will pressure output. Soybean prices rose 0.9% week-on-week on strong Chinese demand, while crude palm oil prices fell 0.4% week-on-week after Malaysia reported a slight seasonal rise in end-month inventories. The research team rates the sector Bullish and keeps TFG as its Top pick for long-term investment, with a Buy recommendation and a target price of 14.20 baht, citing store expansion, raw material costs locked in through the third quarter of 2027, and a dividend yield of about 8% per year paid quarterly. It also sees TVO, STA and NER as the stocks benefiting most clearly from the Super El Niño theme.

El Niño is likely to persist into early 2027, with NOAA data indicating an 81% chance of it developing into a VERY STRONG EL NIÑO during October-December 2026, leading to drought in Thailand and Asia. Meanwhile, the Thai stock market is less affected than other regions due to its index structure, where commodity-linked and banking stocks together account for more than half of the market. According to Mr. Pharadorn Teanprasert, Director of Research at Asia Plus Securities, beneficiary stocks include agricultural, food, and vegetable oil sectors such as KSL, KTIS, BRR, CPF, TFG, GFPT, and TVO, as well as energy and refinery groups like TOP, SPRC, IRPC, and BCP, due to potentially higher refining margins. Commercial banks also benefit from inflation and interest rate spreads. The SET Index has a 30% weight in commodities and 20% in banks, making Thailand an attractive haven during global supply shocks.

Bualuang Securities stated that Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited, or TVO, reported Q2/2026 net profit of 877 million baht, up 35% year-on-year and 24% quarter-on-quarter, with revenue of 8.28 billion baht, up 24% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter, supported by higher sales volume after capacity expansion since late 2025. Sales of soybean meal and soybean oil increased more than 20% year-on-year, despite lower average selling prices. Gross margin recovered to 13.7% from 10.8% in Q1/2026, but still below 16.1% in Q2/2025. For Q3/2026, the outlook remains positive due to slightly higher selling prices for soybean meal and soybean oil, while soybean costs are expected to remain stable, supporting margins. On the supply side, global soybean supply for 2026/27 remains high, with the USDA raising its US production forecast to 4.52 billion bushels and ending stocks to 320 million bushels. Brazil is a key variable due to El Niño uncertainty, while demand from China continues to support prices, with US new-crop soybean outstanding sales at 8.3 million tons, of which about 3.1 million tons are to China. The soybean oil business is also supported by high vegetable oil prices, with palm oil up 17% YTD and soybean oil up 40% YTD as of mid-August. In 1H2026, soybean oil accounted for 33% of revenue and soybean meal 53%, while 88% of sales came from the domestic market. The research house views that short-term profit trends remain good, but consensus expects 2027 profit to decline 13% year-on-year, making TVO's key highlight its dividends, with consensus expecting a dividend yield of around 7% per year, while the stock trades at a 2027 PER of around 10.3 times.

Tisco Securities has maintained its buy recommendation on Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited, or TVO, with a fair value of 33.75 baht, and raised its 2026 profit forecast by 16% to 1.2 billion baht, citing a stronger-than-expected gross margin trend. It expects core profit in the third quarter of 2026 at around 750 million baht, up 74% from the same period last year but down 3% from the previous quarter, as soybean costs are expected to remain stable while domestic soybean meal prices are likely to rise by a low single-digit percentage, pushing gross margin above 13%. Management noted that the cost structure of imported soybeans follows an inverted-U shape through the year, with the second and third quarters of 2026 being the periods when the company enjoys a cost advantage, while costs are expected to gradually increase in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, 2026 operating performance is likely to beat the original target, under which the company aimed for total revenue growth of about 15%, while the first half of 2026 grew more than 20% and machinery is running at full capacity. Revenue growth in the first half of 2026 came more from sales volume than from price increases, with soybean meal sales volume up 30% from a year earlier while average selling price fell about 7% and unit costs declined 7-8%. Soybean oil sales volume rose 28%, while average selling price fell 3-6% and costs declined 1%, reflecting that growth came from volume and procurement efficiency rather than temporary margin gains, which Tisco views as more sustainable. For 2027, growth will not be supported by volume because the company has production capacity of 7,000 tonnes per day and a utilisation rate of 99%. Growth will therefore have to come from shifting the product mix from crude oil to refined oil, expanding into higher-margin products, and increasing advertising and promotional spending to raise realised value per tonne. On the next capacity expansion, management estimates investment of about 4.5 to 6.0 billion baht, with a new plant ideally having minimum capacity of about 3,000 tonnes per day, within an optimal range of 2,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day, and investment of around 1.5 to 2.0 million baht per tonne of daily capacity. However, expansion is still constrained by city planning, as the area in Nakhon Pathom province cannot expand capacity under the current city plan, so the company must wait for a new city plan. At the same time, the company is considering options to build a new plant in the central region, without yet disclosing the location, and management views demand as not a major concern and manageable. Tisco also sees a potential profit driver for TVO in 2027 from the El Nino phenomenon, as El Nino normally affects palm oil supply, which could indirectly affect demand for and prices of soybean oil. Meanwhile, risks to Brazilian soybean output could push soybean prices above 13 US dollars per bushel. Tisco maintains its buy rating on TVO using a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 times, or minus 0.5 standard deviation versus the five-year historical average. Key risks include lower-than-expected market share, weaker domestic livestock product prices, and a larger-than-expected decline in global soybean prices. Tisco expects a 2026 dividend payout of about 8%, or 2.46 baht per share, compared with a dividend of 0.90 baht per share in the first half of 2026.

Kasikorn Securities recommends buying shares of Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited, or TVO, with a target price of 30 baht, after the company reported normalized profit for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 at 796 million baht, up 2 percent from a year earlier and 58 percent from the previous quarter. The research team raised its normalized profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 14 percent and 10 percent respectively, citing better sales volume, and expects dividend yields of 8.6 percent and 7.0 percent respectively for those years. Management also has a positive view on the short-term outlook and expects third-quarter fiscal 2026 operating results to be similar to the second quarter.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the global investment landscape is facing challenges on all fronts, amid a sharper-than-expected slowdown in US employment, which fuels hopes that the Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate at the September meeting. Meanwhile, domestic factors are receiving a significant boost from the rapidly strengthening baht, supported by continued foreign inflows into the Thai bond market, with cumulative net purchases this month exceeding 9.2 billion baht. The baht recently touched 32.98 per US dollar. The research team has identified three main industry groups in Thailand that stand to benefit positively from the strong baht. The first group comprises large-cap stocks that are prime targets for foreign fund flows, including commercial banks such as KBANK, SCB, BBL, and KTB; retail and tourism plays like AOT, CPALL, and CRC; telecoms such as ADVANC and TRUE; and construction materials like SCC. The second group consists of companies with high foreign-currency debt or costs, including power and energy firms such as GULF, BGRIM, GPSC, and PTTEP, and airlines like AAV. The third group covers businesses that rely heavily on imported raw materials, including agriculture and food companies such as TFG and TVO. In addition, the research team recommends portfolio strategies to navigate volatility, highlighting safe-haven stocks combined with gold as a hedge, and names SYNTEC, PTT, and GUNKUL as top picks for the Thai stock market, along with LITE01 and ZIJIN80 for overseas investment.