Drought, heat waves, and out-of-season rain are quietly eating into crop yields around the world — Europe's maize could lose up to 20%, and wheat around 10%, versus a world without global warming. And yet we need to produce roughly 70% more food by 2050. This lesson is about "adaptation," not cutting carbon — it's the business of growing more food using less water and land, through three levers: seeds that handle drought and heat · precise sensors and machines · and water systems that don't leak away.
Why is Climate-Resilient Agriculture & Food moving?
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El Niño and war squeeze global food supply, lifting resilient-ag demand
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Food prices at three-year high on drought and Black Sea grain risk The UN food price index hit its highest since January 2023, driven by cereals, sugar and vegetable oils. Drought in US and European grain belts and attacks on Black Sea export routes are tightening supply, which raises demand and pricing power for irrigation, seed and fertilizer suppliers.
Establishes the supply-driven price backdrop that powers the whole theme.
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JPMorgan warns of 2027 food crisis, farm stocks jump JPMorgan says global food inflation could double to 5% in early 2027 as a likely super El Niño cuts yields and fertilizer stays short. Chinese seed and grain stocks rose on the news. This is investor money moving toward the theme on expected scarcity.
Shows capital flowing into the theme on a forecast of worsening food scarcity.
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El Niño cuts India's sugar and monsoon output India's monsoon is 15% below normal, its driest in 17 years, and sugar output may fall enough to force 2-3 million tonnes of imports, with raw sugar futures up 30%. Drought hurts farm incomes and input demand, but supports irrigation and import-driven pricing.
Shows the real counterweight: drought lifts prices but damages the farmers who buy theme products.
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Asia food-security unrest risk as war hits fuel and fertilizer Verisk Maplecroft warns erratic weather plus the Iran war's hit to fuel and fertilizer supply could spark unrest in India, Indonesia and the Philippines. Thailand's sugar crop is slumping. This threatens farm output and the input supply chain across the region.
Adds the geopolitical and social-instability risk that could disrupt the theme's supply chain.
Q3 2026
▲2▼1
El Niño and war squeeze global food supply, lifting resilient-ag demand
▲
Food prices at three-year high on drought and Black Sea grain risk The UN food price index hit its highest since January 2023, driven by cereals, sugar and vegetable oils. Drought in US and European grain belts and attacks on Black Sea export routes are tightening supply, which raises demand and pricing power for irrigation, seed and fertilizer suppliers.
Establishes the supply-driven price backdrop that powers the whole theme.
▲
JPMorgan warns of 2027 food crisis, farm stocks jump JPMorgan says global food inflation could double to 5% in early 2027 as a likely super El Niño cuts yields and fertilizer stays short. Chinese seed and grain stocks rose on the news. This is investor money moving toward the theme on expected scarcity.
Shows capital flowing into the theme on a forecast of worsening food scarcity.
◆
El Niño cuts India's sugar and monsoon output India's monsoon is 15% below normal, its driest in 17 years, and sugar output may fall enough to force 2-3 million tonnes of imports, with raw sugar futures up 30%. Drought hurts farm incomes and input demand, but supports irrigation and import-driven pricing.
Shows the real counterweight: drought lifts prices but damages the farmers who buy theme products.
▼
Asia food-security unrest risk as war hits fuel and fertilizer Verisk Maplecroft warns erratic weather plus the Iran war's hit to fuel and fertilizer supply could spark unrest in India, Indonesia and the Philippines. Thailand's sugar crop is slumping. This threatens farm output and the input supply chain across the region.
Adds the geopolitical and social-instability risk that could disrupt the theme's supply chain.
Royal Irrigation Department cuts Chao Phraya Dam outflow to 2,400 cubic metres per second
The Royal Irrigation Department is preparing to gradually reduce the discharge below Chao Phraya Dam to 2,400 cubic metres per second, after water volumes from upstream areas have continued to trend downward. Currently, Chao Phraya Dam is releasing water at a rate of 2,500 cubic metres per second, and the water level above the dam stands at +16.38 metres above mean sea level. The reduction will begin at 08:00 today, 7 October, decreasing by about 20 cubic metres per second per hour until it reaches 2,400 cubic metres per second at 13:00, and that rate will be maintained thereafter. As of 06:00, Station P.17 on the Ping River had a flow of 484 cubic metres per second, while Station N.67 on the Nan River had a flow of 998 cubic metres per second, bringing the combined flow at Station C.2 in Nakhon Sawan province down to 1,915 cubic metres per second. Meanwhile, the Sakae Krang River at Station Ct.19 in Uthai Thani province had a flow of 52 cubic metres per second. At the same time, the department has reduced water intake into the irrigation systems on both the eastern and western sides to a combined 487 cubic metres per second, down from 564 cubic metres per second yesterday, so that management of the entire water system remains balanced and consistent with the declining water volumes. The Royal Irrigation Department will continue to closely monitor rainfall and runoff from upstream areas.
J.P. Morgan Upgrades Corteva to Overweight After Vylor Spinoff, Sets $19 Target
J.P. Morgan upgraded Corteva to Overweight from Neutral on Tuesday, arguing that the agricultural-chemicals company left behind after the spinoff of its seed business is undervalued and has a stronger financial profile than its share price suggests. Lead analyst Jeffrey J. Zekauskas set a December 2027 price target of $19, compared with Corteva's Oct. 5 closing price of $12.39, implying upside of about 53%; the sharp reduction from J.P. Morgan's previous $83 target reflects the separation of Corteva's seed business into Vylor rather than a comparable collapse in the bank's assessment of the underlying company. The new Corteva consists of the former company's crop-chemicals operations, which J.P. Morgan estimates has a gross margin of about 38%, ebitda margins of 16.5% to 17% and negligible net debt, with the shares trading at roughly 5.7 times estimated 2027 ebitda, about one turn below rival FMC despite FMC carrying substantially more leverage. Zekauskas estimates a high-quality crop-chemicals business could ordinarily warrant about 10 times 2027 ebitda, equivalent to roughly $21 a share before environmental liabilities, but J.P. Morgan uses a more conservative 9-times multiple to reach its $19 target, accounting for uncertainty over PFAS and PFOA liabilities inherited from the former DuPont structure; it models a conservative scenario in which combined liabilities for DuPont, Chemours and Corteva reach $8 billion, twice the existing $4 billion framework, putting Corteva's responsibility at about $1.3 billion, or roughly $2 a share. J.P. Morgan forecasts Corteva revenue rising from $7.87 billion in 2026 to $8.10 billion in 2027, adjusted ebitda increasing from $1.28 billion to $1.37 billion, adjusted EPS climbing 31.6% to 85 cents in 2027 and free cash flow to the firm jumping to $542 million from an estimated $63 million this year, with potential catalysts including $300 million in run-rate savings targeted from 2024 through 2027 and $500 million by 2029, plus a recovery in grain prices.
CTVA · Capital · Positive J.P. Morgan upgraded Corteva to Overweight and set a $19 price target, calling the post-Vylor crop-chemicals business undervalued at ~5.7x 2027 EBITDA.
FMC · Competition · Neutral FMC is named only as a valuation comparison, with Corteva trading about one turn below FMC despite FMC carrying substantially more leverage.
Nutrien to Indefinitely Shut Trinidad Nitrogen Operations
Nutrien Ltd. announced it will indefinitely shut down its Trinidad Nitrogen operations at the Point Lisas Facility following a comprehensive review of strategic alternatives and discussions with relevant stakeholders. The decision responds to ongoing natural gas constraints and supply uncertainty and is aimed at reducing pressure to enhance free cash flow and return on invested capital. Nutrien had previously implemented a controlled shutdown of the facility on Oct. 23, 2025, due to port access restrictions and a lack of reliable and economic natural gas supply, and it determined that permanently halting operations was the optimal path. The shutdown should not affect Nutrien's 2026 nitrogen sales volume guidance, which was maintained at 9.2-9.7 million tons, because the company had already assumed no production from Trinidad's operations. On its second-quarter call, the company raised its 2026 Potash sales volume guidance to 14.2-14.8 million tons from 14.1-14.8 million tons, while Phosphate sales volume guidance remains 2.4-2.6 million tons and global potash shipments are projected at 74-77 million tons for 2026.
NTR · Supply · Positive Nutrien indefinitely shuts its Trinidad nitrogen operations due to natural gas constraints, cutting high-cost capacity and easing pressure to improve free cash flow and ROIC.
FMC Files Rimisoxafen Herbicide for Approval in Brazil
FMC Corporation has submitted a regulatory dossier for rimisoxafen to Brazilian authorities, the second global regulatory submission for the herbicide after its filing with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in July 2026. Brazil is one of the world's largest soybean and corn producers, with more than 50 million hectares of soybeans and more than 20 million hectares of corn under cultivation, where growers are increasingly battling resistant broadleaf weeds including Amaranthus hybridus and Amaranthus palmeri. The Herbicide Resistance Action Committee classified rimisoxafen under Groups 12 and 32, and as the first dual mode of action herbicide its field testing has shown consistent activity against small-seeded broadleaf weeds, including those resistant to other herbicides. Rimisoxafen is the third novel herbicide active ingredient FMC has advanced to regulatory submission in Brazil, following Isoflex and Dodhylex, though it remains subject to regulatory review and approval and is not currently registered for sale or use in Brazil or any other country. FMC shares have slumped 72.6% in the past year compared with the industry's 10% growth in the same period.
FMC · Regulation · Positive FMC filed its rimisoxafen herbicide dossier with Brazilian regulators, advancing a novel active ingredient toward approval in a major crop market
Cabinet approves 8-year Chao Phraya-Pa Sak-Gulf of Thailand project, initial funding set for 2027
The Cabinet meeting approved the Chai Nat-Pa Sak-Gulf of Thailand project with an 8-year implementation period from 2027 to 2034 to address flooding and drought problems in the long term. It is expected to reduce damage by 16.93 billion baht per year and reduce flooded area by 3.48 million rai, along with a dry-season water retention canal of approximately 1,555 million cubic meters, and a budget for 2027 has already been set to start the project. As for the Bang Bala-Bang Sai drainage project, another project that is continuing but not yet complete, the original contract was to finish in 2026-2027 and be extended to 2029, but the Cabinet saw that the time should not be extended again. The Royal Irrigation Department, which is responsible for the work, therefore moved the deadline to July 2028 and will not allow further extension. The meeting also approved a central budget for 2026 of 4.731 billion baht to provide relief and rehabilitation for flood victims in Bangkok and across the country, assigning the Ministry of Interior to expedite coordination with relevant agencies and local authorities to deliver assistance to the public as quickly as possible. Meanwhile, the Chao Phraya River Basin management meeting resolved to allow the Chao Phraya Dam to release water at a maximum of 2,200 cubic meters per second, up from 2,000 cubic meters per second, releasing it in stepped levels. If all the water is released, the water level will rise by 30 centimeters, and drainage will take place tomorrow.
Thai Chamber of Commerce expects flooding in 27 areas to cost the economy 12 billion baht
The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates that economic damage from flooding between September 25 and 29, 2026, a total of five days, covering Bangkok and 26 provinces in the central, eastern, northern, and northeastern regions, will be approximately 12.283 billion baht, or about 0.066% of annual GDP. The forecast range is between 5.896 billion and 20.635 billion baht, or 0.03% to 0.11% of GDP, depending on the actual extent of the flooded areas. Thanavath Phonvichai, chairman of the advisory board of the forecasting center, said the figures do not yet include damage to property, housing, vehicles, inventory, and agricultural output, which will be assessed clearly after the water recedes. Bangkok is expected to suffer the most damage at about 7.014 billion baht, or roughly 57% of total damage, followed by the eastern region at about 2.976 billion baht, with Chonburi hit hardest at about 2.101 billion baht, and the greater Bangkok area at about 1.839 billion baht, where Samut Prakan is the most affected in that group. The forecasting center assesses that the impact is not severe enough to change the direction of the economy for the full year, but it adds downward pressure on growth in the second half of the year. It recommends that the government speed up relief for informal workers and small operators, manage water in the Chao Phraya basin, and monitor prices of essential goods through the vegetarian festival from October 10 to 18, 2026.
BAAC launches 2 flood-relief loan schemes with 0% interest for 6 months, total credit limit up to 500,000 baht
The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives has launched two loan programmes to assist farmers and customers affected by flooding, with a combined credit limit of up to 500,000 baht per borrower. The first programme is an emergency expense loan for customers hit by natural disasters in the 2026/27 period, offering up to 50,000 baht per borrower at 0% interest for the first six months, after which the MRR rate applies, currently 6.575% per year. The second programme is a rehabilitation and quality-of-life loan for farmer customers affected by natural disasters, offering up to 500,000 baht per borrower at MRR minus 2% per year, with repayment over up to 15 years. Chatchai Sirilai, manager of the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives, said the bank is ready to provide funding so affected customers can access low-interest capital for emergency expenses, building or repairing homes, agricultural buildings, farm tools and machinery, and restoring damaged production. Once the situation eases, the bank will send teams to survey damage to customers' homes, assets and farmland in order to gather data for considering assistance and reducing their debt burden. Affected customers can register their interest from today at their local bank branch, or call the BAAC Contact Center on 02 555 0555 around the clock.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Climate-Resilient Agriculture & Food Capital
Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) · Demand · Positive BAAC launches two flood-relief loan programmes with up to 500,000 baht per borrower, expanding its lending to affected farmers and customers.
Typhoon Dujuan hits Chiba, 100,000 nishikigoi carp lost
Heavy rain from Typhoon Dujuan caused some embankments around lakes in Chiba Prefecture near Tokyo to collapse, sweeping away roughly 100,000 ornamental nishikigoi carp that were ready for sale, while authorities assess widespread damage to agriculture and fisheries in the area. Kyodo News reported that rice paddies and other farmland were submerged, and water also flooded carp and eel breeding ponds around Lake Inbanuma in northern Chiba Prefecture. Kenji Tani, 58, owner of an aquaculture farm in Narita whose facility had about 100,000 carp ready to go on sale, found that after water burst into the ponds only 200 to 300 fish survived. Strawberry farms in Kimitsu were also affected by water overflowing the banks of a nearby river, damaging roughly 10 to 20 percent of strawberry seedlings at one farm. Damage to agriculture, forestry and fisheries in Chiba Prefecture is expected to rise from the figure of about 87 million yen as of last Thursday, after heavy rain in August caused 8.22 billion yen in damage across 33 municipalities and another round of heavy rain in early September caused about 230 million yen in damage across 17 municipalities.
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking expands disaster-prevention loans, first in Japan to meet international standard
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking announced on the 25th that it will expand lending for corporate spending on disaster prevention and climate change measures. As natural disasters caused by climate change, such as heavy rain and floods, increase, the bank aims to support investment in flood-proofing buildings, installing emergency power sources, river improvement, cooling equipment, and developing crops suited to climate change. The bank became the first Japanese financial institution to obtain an opinion from the UK-based nonprofit Climate Bonds Initiative, which promotes such investment, stating that its sustainable finance framework conforms to international standards. This makes it easier for companies to show investors that they are working on disaster prevention and climate change measures if they receive loans through the bank's framework. It also signed a memorandum with the Climate Bonds Initiative together with SMBC Nikko Securities to share knowledge on climate-related standards and evaluation methods and expand the supply of funds to the disaster prevention field. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group aims to handle 50 trillion yen in sustainable finance by fiscal 2029.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Cooling & Heat Resilience ▲Capital
8316.JP · Regulation · Positive SMBC became the first Japanese financial institution to obtain Climate Bonds Initiative conformity for its sustainable finance framework, easing disaster-prevention lending and supporting its 50 trillion yen sustainable finance target.
Vylor and Rainbow Crops Partner on AI-Driven Gene-Edited Corn Traits
Vylor, the advanced seed and genetics company spinning off from Corteva on October 1, 2026, and Belgium-based Rainbow Crops, a spin-off from VIB, announced a collaboration to develop new corn traits using artificial intelligence and multiplex gene editing. Under the partnership, both companies will use Rainbow Crops' AI-supported Trait Foundry technology to accelerate development of corn hybrids more resilient to extreme weather such as heat, drought and floods, combining the platform with Vylor's gene editing expertise. Mat Muller, who will lead Vylor Edge, Vylor's investment platform, said the AI-enabled multiplex gene editing capabilities will allow hundreds of gene edits simultaneously, with performance validated in phenotyping facilities and field trials. Giacomo Bastianelli, CEO and co-founder of Rainbow Crops, said early corn work has been an important proof point for the Trait Foundry platform. The collaboration follows the European Parliament's passage on 17 June 2026 of legislation allowing gene-edited plants to be imported and cultivated across the European Union, and comes after Corteva, through its Corteva Catalyst investment platform, participated in Rainbow Crops' recently closed €9.7 million seed financing round, an investment that will become part of the Vylor Edge portfolio upon the separation.
El Niño drags India's rainfall 15% below average, raising risk of driest monsoon in 17 years
India's meteorological department has reported that an intensifying El Niño is putting India at risk of its driest monsoon season in 17 years, after cumulative rainfall from June to September came in 15% below the long-term average. That could weigh on agricultural output and further stoke food inflation, which climbed to 5.95% in August. The report said that if dry conditions persist, this year's monsoon will be the weakest since 2009, when rainfall was 18% below normal, potentially affecting both the current harvest and the next planting cycle. Food costs rose for a seventh straight month in August. The meteorological office had forecast in May that rainfall this season would be 10% below normal. Christian Werner, managing director of the consultancy Global Weather Climate Analytics in Australia, said weather conditions could favor cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal in the final week of September, which may help bring critically needed rain to eastern and northeastern India and ease drought conditions there. Adequate monsoon rainfall is crucial for the hundreds of millions of Indian farmers who rely on seasonal rains to grow their crops, with India among the world's largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton.
South Korea's August PPI rises 0.2% as heatwave pushes up agricultural prices
South Korea's central bank said on September 18 that the country's producer price index, or PPI, rose in August as agricultural prices climbed due to the impact of a heatwave. The PPI increased 0.2% in August from the previous month, after falling 0.4% in July, which was the first decline since August 2025. Compared with the same period a year earlier, the PPI rose 7.9% in August, accelerating from a 7.7% increase in July. The Bank of Korea said prices of industrial goods, including petroleum and chemical products, remained flat in August from the previous month, while electricity, gas and water prices rose 0.9%. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products rose 3.8% in August, accelerating from a 1.5% increase in July from the previous month, driven by prolonged high temperatures throughout the month. The domestic supply price index, which reflects both producer and import prices, fell 1.3% in August from the previous month.
Indonesia Tightens Penalties for Forest Burning, Weighs 'Ecological Terrorism' Law
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has ordered relevant agencies to tighten legal enforcement and penalties against those using slash-and-burn methods to clear land, after the country faced weeks of severe forest fires that produced haze affecting neighboring countries. At a cabinet meeting, Prabowo said the government would not be lenient toward individuals or companies responsible for the fires, and instructed the Minister of the Presidential Secretariat and the Minister of Law to consider ways to increase legal penalties, and proposed that the government discuss with the House of Representatives to tighten the law, possibly classifying such burning as "ecological terrorism" given the severity of the problem. He also ordered local governments to revoke exemptions that allow smallholder farmers to use fire to clear small plots, and directed police to pursue criminal cases against companies that violate fire prevention measures. Reports say the Indonesian government has mobilized more than 50 aircraft to drop water and conduct cloud seeding to control the fires, while Japan sent three CH-47 Chinook helicopters to join the water-dropping mission on Wednesday, September 16. This fire season is the most severe in 11 years, amid weather from a "super El Niño" phenomenon that has left forests and agricultural land severely dry, with Borneo and Sumatra the worst-affected areas. The haze has increased respiratory illness cases and pushed air quality in Singapore and Malaysia to levels harmful to health. Government data show that from January to July this year, fires burned 202,000 hectares, or nearly 500,000 acres, while YKAN, an environmental group, estimates that fires caused an additional roughly 600,000 hectares, or 1.4 million acres, of damage in August. Indonesian Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni warned that the fires could persist into early November, as the rainy season is likely to arrive later than previously expected.
Verisk Maplecroft warns Asia faces unrest risk from food crisis as Thailand's sugar output slumps
Verisk Maplecroft, a risk consultancy, warns that erratic weather and the fallout from the Iran war could heighten food security risks in Asia and may lead to social unrest and political instability in vulnerable countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines. In a report published on 17 September, it said the Iran war has affected the supply of fuel and fertiliser, key inputs for the agricultural sector, while extreme weather from a strong El Niño is also hitting farm output in several Asian countries. Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, is battling hard-to-control wildfires that are disrupting harvests, while India, the world's largest rice exporter, has seen monsoon rainfall 15% below normal. Thailand, meanwhile, is likely to see a sharp drop in sugar output and remains heavily dependent on energy and fertiliser imports, while facing pressure from farmers' debt burdens ahead of the next planting season. Data from Verisk Maplecroft's food security index shows that more than half of the countries at high or critical risk on food security are also in the two highest-risk groups on its civil unrest forecast index, including India, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Indonesia. Protests have already broken out in the Philippines and Indonesia in recent weeks, and Verisk Maplecroft warns that if pressure from food prices and supplies intensifies and governments are seen as responding ineffectively, it could lead to unrest and political instability in these high-risk countries. In countries already facing conflict, such as Afghanistan and Myanmar, a food shock could increase the risk of a humanitarian crisis.
Terradot and Google Launch Largest Enhanced Rock Weathering Project in Southern Brazil
Terradot and Google announced a megaton-scale climate project in Southern Brazil that pairs methane avoidance in rice farming with permanent carbon dioxide removal, marking Google's largest carbon removal purchase to date. Google will purchase 1M tonnes of near-term methane impact by 2030 and 1M tonnes of carbon removal impact by 2040, delivering 1M tonnes of impact by 2030. The project is the largest enhanced rock weathering project ever undertaken and the first of any kind to combine near-term methane elimination with durable carbon removal at this scale. Terradot will help rice farmers across more than 200,000 hectares starting in Rio Grande do Sul adopt Alternate Wetting and Drying, an irrigation practice that periodically drains flooded paddies to cut water use and sharply reduce methane, while spreading naturally sourced crushed volcanic rock on farmland to generate durable carbon removal. Terradot CEO James Kanoff said the project eliminates the trade-off between moving fast on near-term warming and removing carbon permanently, and Google Head of Carbon Removal Randy Spock said the agreement is built to be a template rather than a one-off. As part of the project, Google is providing an R&D grant to Terradot and to Stanford Doerr School's Soil & Environmental Biogeochemistry Lab to strengthen the scientific foundation of AWD as a methane mitigation strategy.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Climate-Resilient Agriculture & Food ▲Demand
Climate Adaptation & Water › Precision Irrigation & Water-Efficient Systems ▲Demand
Terradot · Demand · Positive Terradot lands a megaton-scale deal with Google to deploy enhanced rock weathering and AWD across 200,000+ hectares in Rio Grande do Sul.
GOOG · Demand · Positive Google purchases 1M tonnes of methane impact by 2030 and 1M tonnes of carbon removal by 2040, its largest carbon removal purchase to date.
Jefferies Flags Six Consumer Stocks at Risk From Super El Niño
Jefferies warned that six consumer stocks could be disrupted by a Super El Niño this year and into 2027, part of a larger multi-sector list of names the firm identified as at risk. Current forecasts suggest the 2026-27 El Niño may be the strongest in modern history, and the firm noted that, unlike most climate risks, El Niño is highly trackable months in advance, giving investors an opportunity to identify economic consequences before they fully materialize. Analyst Scott Marks said Hershey carries concentrated cocoa exposure through its core U.S. chocolate portfolio and has built its 2027 margin recovery plan around expected cocoa deflation, warning that a Super El Niño driving a hotter, drier West African 2026/27 crop would undercut the central pillar of that recovery story. J.M. Smucker is exposed through its coffee portfolio, with sourcing potentially impacted for Brazilian arabica and Vietnamese and Indonesian robusta, while Mondelez International faces El Niño exposure through cocoa, with roughly 60% of supply in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, where strong events historically turn hotter and drier heading into the November-January harvest. Analyst Pedro Baptista noted PriceSmart derives approximately 11% of sales from Colombia and also operates across Central America, and analyst Anne Ling said Yum China could see extreme rainfall, flooding and adverse weather temporarily reduce dine-in traffic and disrupt logistics and delivery efficiency, while analyst Alex Wright highlighted that a sharp rise in sweetener costs could pressure margins at Coca-Cola FEMSA if cost increases outpace pricing actions.
HSY · Supply · Negative Jefferies warns a Super El Niño could drive hotter, drier West African cocoa crops, undercutting Hershey's cocoa-deflation-based 2027 margin recovery plan.
MDLZ · Supply · Negative Roughly 60% of Mondelez's cocoa supply is in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, where a strong El Niño historically turns hotter and drier into the November-January harvest.
PSMT · Supply · Negative PriceSmart derives ~11% of sales from Colombia and operates across Central America, regions exposed to Super El Niño disruption.
SJM · Supply · Negative J.M. Smucker's coffee portfolio faces sourcing risk for Brazilian arabica and Vietnamese/Indonesian robusta under a Super El Niño.
YUMC · Supply · Negative Yum China could see extreme rainfall, flooding and adverse weather reduce dine-in traffic and disrupt logistics and delivery efficiency.
Cabinet approves 95-billion-baht Lower East Chao Phraya irrigation project to tackle drought and flooding in 8 provinces
The Cabinet has approved a project by the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, through the Royal Irrigation Department, to upgrade the Lower East Chao Phraya irrigation system, with a total budget of 95 billion baht over a six-year implementation period from fiscal year 2027 to 2032. The budget comprises 76.50729 billion baht in loans, or 80.53%, and 18.49271 billion baht from the annual expenditure budget, or 19.47%. The project is divided into two phases. Phase 1, worth 40.507 billion baht, prioritizes accelerating the construction and dredging of north-south canals to drain water directly into the Gulf of Thailand, including Khlong Rapeepat, Khlong Rapeepat South Branch, Khlong 13, Khlong Nakhon Nueang Khet, Khlong Phra Ong Chao Chaiyanuchit, Khlong Samrong and Khlong Dan. Phase 2, worth 54.493 billion baht, covers the remaining construction in sequence. The project spans an irrigation canal network of 22 main canals with a total length of about 460 kilometres and 23 water control structures across eight provinces: Saraburi, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Nakhon Nayok, Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi, Samut Prakan, Chachoengsao and Bangkok. It will increase the volume of water that can be taken into Khlong Rapeepat from 210 to 400 cubic metres per second and raise drainage into the Gulf of Thailand through coastal canals to 144 cubic metres per second. Once completed, the project is expected to reduce flood damage by an average of 10 billion baht per year, protect more than 258,000 rai of community and key economic areas from flooding, and add more than 17 million cubic metres per year of water stored for consumption in the dry season.
Cabinet approves 15-billion-baht national disaster insurance scheme covering 30 million households
Today's cabinet meeting (Sept 15) was chaired by Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn on behalf of Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who is on a trip to the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. The Interior Ministry is seeking approval for a total budget framework of 15 billion baht to buy natural disaster insurance under the national disaster insurance programme, and is proposing three types of policy covering floods, windstorms and earthquakes, for 30 million households, with a one-year coverage period from 1 October 2026 to 1 October 2027, to ease the burden of risk on the state, which spends tens of billions of baht a year on relief for disaster victims. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives is seeking approval for a project to improve the irrigation system in the lower Chao Phraya basin and the lower eastern side, with a budget of about 95 billion baht, using loans from the Asian Development Bank, or ADB, together with the national budget. The Transport Ministry, for its part, is proposing to cancel the item for construction of the ministry's new headquarters building, which was tied to the budgets for 2026 to 2028, effectively delaying the construction plan. Attention is also on proposals to appoint and transfer senior officials at several ministries to fill positions left vacant by retirements on 30 September this year.
Research warns Himalayan glaciers melting 65% faster, threatening 20% of India's GDP
New research from global consultancy Systemiq, produced jointly with the Integrated Mountain Initiative and drawing on technical data from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development and the GB Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, warns that glaciers in the Himalayas are losing mass up to 65% faster than a decade ago, and that the mountain range is approaching a dangerous tipping point. Of the roughly 40,000 glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalaya and Karakoram region, only about 21 are monitored in detail and continuously, reflecting a huge data gap. The report estimates that water from the Himalayas supports economic activity equivalent to about 20% of India's GDP, through sectors ranging from wheat, rice and tea cultivation to hydropower and the pilgrimage economy. Yet the mountain states receive only about 5% of that economic value, while the Himalayan region accounts for about 18% of the country's land area but roughly 35% of all disasters. The Indian government told parliament in July that 56 glacial lakes had been classified as very high risk, following a scientific assessment in 2025 covering 189 high-risk lakes in India's Himalayan region, and the Central Water Commission is monitoring 2,485 glacial lakes larger than 10 hectares in the country's Himalayan river basins. The report also proposes 10 urgent measures, from reducing black carbon emissions, which Systemiq estimates cause about one third of Himalayan glacier melt, to expanding glacier monitoring systems, upgrading early warning systems, and reshaping tourism in mountain areas, which currently handle about 400 million tourist visits a year.
Systemiq · · Neutral Systemiq is the consultancy that produced the glacier-melt research; the report itself is not a company-specific financial or operational development.
USDA Points to Higher Soybean Output, Pushing CBOT Grains Lower Across the Board
Grain futures on the CBOT closed lower across the board on Friday, September 11, led by soybean contracts, which fell more than 2.6% and dropped below the 13-dollar-per-bushel level, after the US Department of Agriculture, or USDA, projected higher output. November-delivery soybeans fell 35.75 cents, or 2.68%, to close at 12.9650 dollars per bushel, while December-delivery corn fell 3.50 cents to close at 5.3025 dollars per bushel, and December-delivery wheat fell 16 cents, or 2.16%, to close at 7.2525 dollars per bushel. The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, or WASDE, said 2026 soybean production would come in at 4.54 billion bushels with a yield of 52.8 bushels per acre, above the August estimates of 4.52 billion bushels and 52.7 bushels respectively. At the same time, the USDA estimated US corn exports for the 2026/2027 marketing year at 1.93 million tons, above the upper end of the 700,000-ton to 1.7-million-ton range forecast by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Soybean exports were put at 2.64 million tons, above analyst expectations, while wheat exports were 194,200 tons, below what analysts had forecast. The USDA also cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 3 million tons to 43 million tons, and lowered Ukraine's by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons. Analysts at StoneX said the downgrades reflected that supply chains remain under pressure from intensifying conflict between the two countries.
El Niño Slashes India's Sugar Output, Risking 2-3 Million Tonne Imports as Prices Surge 30%
India's sugar output is likely to fall to around 29-31 million tonnes next season, as dry weather driven by El Niño threatens the harvest due to begin next month, compared with an estimated 31 million tonnes in the current season according to the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association. A Bloomberg survey of 11 traders, analysts and sugar mill operators indicates India may need to import 2-3 million tonnes of sugar next year, after current import quotas are used up. Klaudiu Kofrik, principal analyst at Covrig Analytics, expects India may begin additional imports as early as July next year. The International Sugar Organization warned in May that the global sugar market could face a deficit of about 260,000 tonnes. India's monsoon rainfall, crucial for sugarcane cultivation, has been about 15% below normal. Those expectations have pushed raw sugar futures in New York up about 30% since the start of the year, and India last month allowed sugar mills and refineries to import raw sugar duty-free, while setting stock-holding limits for traders and large users. Ashwini Srivastava, joint secretary for sugar at India's Food Ministry, said authorities will monitor sugar prices closely and have begun tracking production data on a monthly basis.
SUGAR · Supply · Positive El Niño-driven drought cuts India's sugar output and forces 2-3 million tonnes of imports, tightening global supply and lifting raw sugar futures ~30%.
Google and Mitti Labs Sign Five-Year Rice Methane Carbon Credit Deal
Mitti Labs has announced a five-year carbon credit agreement with Google to scale climate-smart agriculture across 100,000 hectares of smallholder rice farms in India, delivering one million high-integrity credits to Google by 2030 in what the company calls the largest rice methane offtake to date. The partnership will transition over 70,000 farmers to water and methane-savings irrigation practices, aiming to eliminate 3M tons of near-term warming impact, measured as GWP20 and equivalent to 1M tons of GWP100 impact, while conserving billions of gallons of water across critical regional basins. Rice paddies continuously flooded under traditional practices account for more than 10% of global methane emissions, and Mitti Labs says its model cuts up to 50% of methane emissions from rice fields and reduces irrigation volumes by close to 40% while maintaining rice yields. The partnership is projected to deliver billions of liters of water savings across India, equivalent to Bengaluru's annual supply for three years, and Mitti Labs will use Google's support to expand its NASA-supported GeoAI platform, which fuses satellite radar data with field-collected ground truth at the resolution of individual smallholder plots. Kate Brandt, Chief Sustainability Officer at Google, said the company is committed to finding solutions that neutralize warming across both the near and long term, while Mitti Labs co-founder Xavier Laguarta called the partnership a powerful accelerator of its mission to reduce emissions, save water, and strengthen the livelihoods of the 150 million smallholder farmers who grow rice.
Mitti Labs · Demand · Positive Mitti Labs secures a five-year agreement with Google to deliver one million carbon credits and scale its climate-smart agriculture model across 100,000 hectares.
GOOG · Regulation · Positive Google signs a five-year carbon credit offtake deal with Mitti Labs to source one million high-integrity rice methane credits by 2030, supporting its climate/sustainability commitments.
OCBC warns Thailand faces highest inflation risk from El Niño in ASEAN
OCBC Group Research expects the El Niño phenomenon to expose ASEAN countries to greater inflation risk than to an economic slowdown, with higher prices for rice, wheat, corn and vegetable oils set to be key factors weighing on their economies. Lavanya Venkateswaran, a senior economist for ASEAN and India affairs at OCBC, said in a report published on September 9 that the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand are the ASEAN countries at high risk from El Niño, while Malaysia and Vietnam face significant risk as well, though of a more concentrated kind. She said that apart from Thailand and Vietnam, most major economies in the region are net rice importers, leaving the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia exposed to terms-of-trade effects from higher rice prices, and noted that most of the ASEAN-6 are large net importers of grains, making them especially vulnerable to imported inflation pressures when wheat and corn prices rise on world markets. The impact on economic growth is expected to be concentrated in the agricultural sector, with Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, which have large agricultural sectors, vulnerable to lost output and lower rural farm incomes, while agricultural exporters such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam may receive some offset from higher commodity export earnings.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Climate-Resilient Agriculture & Food Demand
CORN · Demand · Positive El Niño-driven inflation risk is tied to higher world prices for corn, implying stronger demand/price pressure for corn futures.
WHEAT · Demand · Positive Article cites higher wheat prices on world markets as a key El Niño inflation factor, supportive for Chicago SRW wheat futures.
RICE · Demand · Positive Higher rice prices are flagged as a key El Niño inflation driver for ASEAN net importers, supportive for rough rice futures.
Krungsri turns bullish on agriculture sector, top picks for El Niño theme: TVO, STA, NER
Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited disclosed that its research division has raised its investment weighting for the agriculture and food sector to Bullish, reflecting Buy ratings on most stocks in the group. It identified TVO, STA and NER as the biggest beneficiaries of this El Niño theme, and upgraded TVO to Buy with a 2027 forecast target price of 36.00 baht, from Neutral at 31.00 baht. STA and NER remain rated Buy on expectations that rubber prices will stay elevated longer than the phenomenon itself. TFG remains a fundamental Top pick with a target price of 14.20 baht, supported by its retail branch expansion plan, cost locking through the third quarter of 2027, and a dividend yield of about 8% per year paid quarterly, which is not driven by the El Niño theme. Meanwhile, CPC and NCEP assess a more than 90% chance of a Very strong El Niño occurring between September 2026 and January 2027, and put the odds at 69% that the October to December 2026 period will be more severe than any El Niño since 1950. Impacts vary by product category. The USDA expects global soybean output in 2026/27F to reach a record 442.3 million tonnes, while global palm oil stocks have a stocks-to-use ratio of 18.3%, the lowest in 10 years, and global rubber supply is shrinking as Indonesia's output falls from 2.0 million tonnes in 2025 to 1.5 million tonnes in 2026F. Feed costs will begin to affect CPF, GFPT and TFG from the fourth quarter of 2027 onward.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Climate-Resilient Agriculture & Food ▲Demand
TVO.BK · Capital · Positive Krungsri upgraded TVO to Buy with a raised target price of 36.00 baht from Neutral at 31.00 baht on the El Niño theme.
NER.BK · Supply · Positive NER remains rated Buy as global rubber supply shrinks (Indonesia output falling), keeping rubber prices elevated longer.
STA.BK · Supply · Positive STA remains rated Buy on expectations rubber prices stay elevated longer amid shrinking global rubber supply.
CPF.BK · Supply · Negative Feed costs will begin to affect CPF from Q4 2027 onward due to El Niño-driven supply pressures.
GFPT.BK · Supply · Negative Feed costs will begin to affect GFPT from Q4 2027 onward due to El Niño-driven supply pressures.
TFG.BK · Supply · Neutral TFG is a fundamental Top pick on branch expansion and cost locking, but feed costs will begin to affect it from Q4 2027 onward.
C3S reports August 2026 was the hottest on record, with global temperature reaching 16.96 degrees
The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, or C3S, reported that August 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded in history, with the global average surface air temperature reaching 16.96 degrees Celsius, slightly above the previous record of about 16.95 degrees Celsius set in July 2023, and 0.85 degrees Celsius above the August average for the 1991-2020 period. It was also about 1.65 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the 1850-1900 period. The month was also the first since November 2025 that the global monthly average temperature rose more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Meanwhile, Western Europe also experienced its hottest summer on record, as a heatwave that began unusually early and intensely in May pushed the June-August average temperature above the previous record set in 2003. The global average sea surface temperature outside the polar regions, between latitudes 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north, reached 21.07 degrees Celsius in August, the highest level ever recorded for that month, and remained unusually high across much of the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the El Nino phenomenon is intensifying and could become one of the strongest on record in the coming months. Samantha Burgess, head of climate strategy at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said the figures reflect that climate change is driving extreme weather in both the atmosphere and the oceans, with growing impacts on communities, economies and ecosystems worldwide.
UK food inflation expected to exceed 6% next year, industry body FDF says
The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) said on the 9th that it expects UK food inflation to rise to nearly 4% by the end of the year and to exceed 6% by the middle of next year. The forecast reflects the ongoing effects of the war between the United States and Iran, drought in Europe, and the El Niño phenomenon. The FDF projected that food and non-alcoholic drink price growth in December of this year would be 3.9% year on year, a sharp downward revision from its previous forecast of just under 10%, but it expects prices to keep rising next year and to peak at 6.4% in July next year. Chief Executive Karen Betts noted that food and drink manufacturers have kept food prices as low as possible during the energy crisis that has persisted since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but said this cannot continue indefinitely. She added that with energy, logistics, and packaging costs remaining high, combined with this summer's intense heat, food prices are expected to rise through the end of the year and to continue rising into next year. According to the FDF, food inflation is expected to remain well above its historical average in the second half of 2027, and while the peak will be lower than forecast in April, the flat trend is likely to be prolonged. According to the UK Office for National Statistics, food and drink inflation fell to 1.3% in July, the lowest level since August 2024. The UK consumer price index rose 2.9% in July, and the Bank of England forecasts that food inflation will reach 3.5% by December and that CPI growth will accelerate to 3.1%.
Heat of the 'Plus 2°C Era' Hits Japan's Dining Tables, Affecting Production, Logistics, and Prices
In the summer of 2025, Japan's average temperature was 2.36°C above the normal, marking the highest since records began in 1898, and the third consecutive year of record highs. This extreme heat has damaged crops and livestock, leading to reduced supplies and higher prices for eggs, rice, and vegetables. For example, in Ibaraki Prefecture, egg production rates have dropped by 10-20%, and the ratio of top-grade Koshihikari rice from Niigata Prefecture has fallen to just a few percent. According to Teikoku Databank, the average price of a curry rice meal has hit a record high of 365 yen, with an index of 142.6 compared to the 20-year average. If temperatures continue to rise, a plate of curry rice could cost around 500 yen by the 2040s, prompting consumers to consider new rice varieties and adjust storage methods.
Mengcao Ecological Wins Bid for 95.4 Million Yuan Wulatehou Banner Three-North Project
Mengcao Ecological announced on September 7 that it has confirmed winning the bid for Construction Section Six of the integrated protection and restoration project for forests, grasslands, wetlands, and desertified land under the Three-North Program in Wulatehou Banner, Bayannur City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, for the year 2026, with a winning amount of approximately 95.4 million yuan. The project is part of the key construction tasks in the Yellow River Jiziwan area under the sixth phase of the Three-North Program, with funding sourced from the central government and matching funds from the autonomous region, providing relatively strong payment security. Relying on the National Grassland Technology Innovation Center platform, Mengcao Ecological has established a three-in-one technological foundation comprising a grass seed gene bank, a grass seed resource bank, and a grassland big data platform. It has also invested approximately 170 million yuan in Wulate Middle Banner, also in Bayannur City, to build a 34,000-mu seed source breeding base with an annual output of 750 tons of high-quality forage grass seeds. Since Wulatehou Banner and Wulate Middle Banner share highly similar climate, soil, and vegetation communities, the mature technical models and localized seed source systems validated in the Middle Banner can be directly transferred and applied, providing assurance for the Hou Banner project.
UK Warns Public to Stockpile Food Ahead of Severe El Niño
Britain's environment minister has advised households to stockpile food in preparation for severe weather as El Niño forms over the Pacific Ocean. Dame Angela Eagle, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, stated that the phenomenon could be the largest ever recorded, leading to drier summers, wetter winters, and more intense storms. The warning coincides with a report from the National Audit Office indicating that the country's food supply chain faces increased risks from cyberattacks and climate crises, while the government relies too heavily on the private sector to manage disruptions to the food system. The UK government plans to launch a national emergency preparedness strategy within the year, aiming to ensure that citizens and businesses are ready for events that could impact electricity, water, and food systems. Given the UK's heavy reliance on food imports, past events such as COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and extreme weather have highlighted the fragility of the food system. However, the government maintains that the food system remains diverse and resilient, with no current signs that food security is at risk.
French Finance Ministry: Heatwave and Drought Could Shave 0.1 Percentage Point Off Growth
The French Finance Ministry said on Tuesday that this summer's drought and heatwave could shave 0.1 percentage point off the country's economic growth in 2026. The main reason is a drop in agricultural income, reflecting an estimated 8% decline in agricultural value added. However, it stressed that this is a preliminary estimate and not an official revision of this year's growth forecast of 0.7%. Arnaud Rousseau, president of France's largest agricultural union FNSEA, said agricultural production losses this summer are expected to exceed 10 billion euros ($11.58 billion). The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) last week revised down second-quarter growth from an initial 0.2% to 0.0%, making it nearly impossible for the government to achieve its full-year outlook.
AgriCapture Partners with Google to Save 5.4 Billion Gallons in Texas
AgriCapture has announced a multi-year partnership with Google and the Bonneville Environmental Foundation to replenish 5.4 billion gallons of water in Southeast Texas by transitioning 6,000 acres of rice farmland in the Trinity River Basin to water-saving irrigation practices. The program will reduce irrigation withdrawals in one of the state's most stressed watersheds, where roughly 140,000 acres are flood irrigated annually. Google is financing the upfront capital for the irrigation infrastructure and providing performance-based payments to farmers for the water they save, as part of its broader commitment to responsible water management. AgriCapture will quantify the water savings using flow meters, field sensors, and geospatial monitoring, generating verified volumetric water benefits. This Texas program adds to AgriCapture's portfolio of water and carbon projects across six U.S. states and nine other countries, while Google has committed over $500 million to water infrastructure globally.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Precision Irrigation & Water-Efficient Systems ▲Demand
AgriCapture · Demand · Positive AgriCapture lands a multi-year partnership with Google to deliver verified water-saving projects across 6,000 acres in Texas.
GOOG · Capital · Positive Google is financing upfront capital for irrigation infrastructure and providing performance-based payments as part of its water commitment.
Study: El Niño variability most intense in 1,000 years
A new study published in the journal Science finds that temperature variability associated with the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean has been more intense than at any time in the 1,000 years before the Industrial Revolution. ENSO variability over recent decades has been more than 36% higher than in the pre-industrial period, with the sharpest increase occurring over the past 40 years. ENSO encompasses both warm El Niño and cool La Niña events, which affect rainfall and temperatures worldwide, leading to droughts, floods, and agricultural problems. The increased variability is driven mainly by more frequent and intense El Niño events, coupled with rising global temperatures. Meanwhile, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on August 13 that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-2027. The study also warns that ENSO variability in the eastern Pacific has already exceeded the ceiling recorded in coral structures from centuries before the Industrial Revolution.
Dayu Water-Saving 2026 Interim Report: Design Qualifications Deliver Dividends, Cash Flow Is the Core Test
Dayu Water-Saving Group released its 2026 interim report on August 25. Relying on a design-led, full-industry-chain collaborative model, the company achieved breakthroughs in smart water conservancy and ecological governance, with steady revenue expansion and significantly improved asset quality. However, affected by one-off factors such as goodwill losses from the sale of equity in a subsidiary, net profit attributable to the parent turned negative, while non-recurring profit and loss excluded net profit maintained slight growth, and operating cash flow remained in net outflow. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.586 billion yuan, up 24.27 percent year on year. Net profit attributable to the parent was negative 1.1079 million yuan, down 108.80 percent year on year. Non-recurring profit and loss excluded net profit was 4.4138 million yuan, up 1.55 percent year on year. Net cash flow from operating activities was negative 569 million yuan, with the net outflow widening 3.59 percent year on year. Among these, revenue from agricultural water design services was 360 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year increase of 306.84 percent, with a gross margin of 36.81 percent, mainly benefiting from the completed integration of Huai'an Water Conservancy Survey and Design Research Institute and the highlighted advantages of its double Class A design institute qualifications. Revenue from smart agricultural water project construction was 937 million yuan, up 13.28 percent year on year, with a gross margin of 17.53 percent. Revenue from agricultural water technology product sales was 139 million yuan, down 36.67 percent year on year. New contracts signed in the first half totaled 2.166 billion yuan. On the profit side, the company transferred part of its equity in the holding subsidiary Huitong Technology, recognizing investment income of negative 19.2347 million yuan. Combined with factors such as gains and losses on disposal of non-current assets, this caused net profit attributable to the parent to swing from profit to loss. Looking ahead, with the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan, national water network construction, modernization of irrigation districts, and the building of digital twin water conservancy systems will bring a certain incremental market. However, attention should be paid to risks from intensifying industry homogenization, accounts receivable management caused by longer project payment collection cycles, and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on gross margins.
Citi Raises Corn, Soybean and Wheat Price Targets on El Niño Risks
Citi has raised its price forecasts for corn, soybeans and wheat, citing the strengthening Super El Niño as its highest-conviction agricultural market risk heading into late 2026 and early 2027. The bank lifted its three-month corn target to $5.40 per bushel and its 12-month forecast to $5.90 per bushel, while soybean targets rose to $12.75 for three months and $13.25 for 12 months, and wheat targets increased to $7.25 and $7.75 respectively. The revisions follow NOAA's August 2026 update assigning a more than 90% probability to a very strong El Niño event and a 69% chance that October through December conditions will surpass every El Niño episode recorded since 1950. Citi identified palm oil, robusta coffee, rice, sugar, cocoa and Australian wheat as among the commodities most exposed, with the greatest risks concentrated in Australia, India, Southeast Asia and parts of Brazil. The bank also noted that lower palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia could boost demand for soybean oil, adding further upward pressure to soybean prices.
Global Watering Equipment Market to Reach $24.2 Billion by 2035
The global watering equipment market is projected to grow from $12.8 billion in 2025 to $24.2 billion by 2035, a compound annual growth rate of 6.5%, according to a new report from ResearchAndMarkets.com. The sprinklers segment accounted for $4.52 billion in 2025, making it the largest product category, while the agriculture segment held a 44.9% share. North America generated $2.77 billion in 2025, representing a 21.5% share, and is expected to grow at a 5% CAGR through 2035. Major companies include Netafim (Orbia), Rain Bird Corporation, Hunter Industries, Husqvarna Group (Gardena), The Toro Company, Jain Irrigation Systems, and Hozelock (Exel Industries).
JA Tsumagoi Village and partners launch experiment using satellite data to promote cabbage sales
JA Tsumagoi Village, JAXA, and Dentsu began an experimental initiative on the 24th to use satellite data to forecast supply and prices of Tsumagoi Village's specialty cabbage, linking this to in-store promotions and advertising. When they determine it is a good time to sell due to increased supply, they will create demand through merchandising, and when supply is short, they will curb advertising, aiming to stabilize supply, demand, and prices while reducing food loss. Previously, producers walked the fields to check growth, but now satellite data on color, size, and other broad-area indicators will predict shipment volumes eight weeks ahead. Ajinomoto is also cooperating, and from the same day, Cook Do products are displayed next to Tsumagoi Village cabbage at Tokyu Store Sangenjaya. Going forward, they will propose cabbage-based menu ideas according to supply forecasts and roll out similar promotions at about 50 stores in sequence.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Precision Irrigation & Water-Efficient Systems Demand
嬬恋村農業協同組合 · Demand · Positive The initiative aims to stabilize supply and demand for Tsumagoi cabbage, directly benefiting the agricultural cooperative.
4324.JP · Demand · Positive Dentsu is a partner in the satellite data initiative, which could lead to new business opportunities in data-driven marketing.
2802.JP · Demand · Positive Ajinomoto's Cook Do products are being promoted alongside cabbage, potentially boosting sales through tie-in merchandising.
Global funds begin enforcing TNFD, moving beyond carbon tunnel vision
Institutional investors worldwide are starting to enforce the TNFD framework to assess nature and biodiversity risks, rather than looking only at greenhouse gas emissions through carbon tunnel vision. Multinational companies and retailers in Europe and America are beginning to set conditions for purchasing goods that do not harm ecosystems. If suppliers are found to be discharging wastewater or clearing forests, they may have credit lines suspended or face immediate rejection of their goods. One example is a Thai processed food exporter that nearly lost a Scandinavian customer because its fruit orchards used chemicals that damaged topsoil. But when IoT soil sensors and AI drones were used to spray biological agents instead of chemicals, the topsoil recovered within one season, and the customer agreed to pay above-market prices to place the products in the Nature Positive category, which is gaining popularity among Gen Z consumers in Europe.
Research warns Bangkok at risk of severe drought from super El Niño
New research warns that a super El Niño forming late this year will severely affect 12 major Asian cities, with Bangkok and five other cities at risk of prolonged drought lasting several months, while Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Colombo could face severe flooding. The report by WaterAid, prepared by academics from the University of Bristol and Cardiff University, analysed 44 years of rainfall data and found that the stronger the El Niño, the more rainfall deviates from normal. Sea surface temperatures could rise up to 3.6 degrees Celsius above normal, compared with the previous record of 2.75 degrees Celsius in 2015-2016. Researchers warn that we are entering uncharted territory, and the global food crisis could worsen as a result.
Probability of a super El Niño rises to 95%, potentially disrupting tropical crop supplies
Shenwan Hongyuan Research noted that the probability of a super El Niño event has recently risen to 95%, and extreme weather could significantly disrupt global agricultural supply. A strong El Niño will cause drought and lower output in major natural rubber and palm oil producing areas in Southeast Asia, while sugarcane production in India and Thailand will come under pressure, supporting expectations of higher sugar prices. Core blueberry producing regions in Peru and Chile also face output reduction risks, pushing prices higher in the fourth quarter. Historical experience shows that such climate events often reshape the supply and demand landscape for some tropical cash crops through weather premiums, thereby lifting inflation expectations. As of 10:41 a.m. on August 20, 2026, the China National Grain Industry Index tracked by the ChinaAMC Grain ETF was down 2.47%, but the ETF had seen four consecutive days of net capital inflows.
JPMorgan fertilizer warning misread as 12.3% grocery spike
A JPMorgan fertilizer analysis recirculating this week has been paired with a 12.3% figure that is not a forecast but the upper bound of a USDA 95% prediction interval for 2027 grocery prices. The USDA's actual midpoint forecast is 2.9%, with a lower bound of negative 5.6%, and the agency says discussions should focus on the midpoint. JPMorgan senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi said rising fertilizer prices could lift global food inflation temporarily to 4-5%, while the bank's April 7 research noted nitrogen benchmarks jumped 25% to 50% after the Strait of Hormuz closure. Retail urea has since fallen about 21% from its May peak to $678 a ton in early August, and the current grocery inflation story is concentrated in beef, with USDA forecasting a 10.7% rise in 2026, while egg prices are projected to fall 30.7% this year.
