South Korea Estimates CPTPP Membership Would Boost GDP by 0.38 Points Over 10 Years
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South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources estimates that joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or CPTPP, could raise South Korea's GDP by 0.38 percentage points over the first 10 years, compared with a scenario in which it does not join. The assessment examined the macroeconomic impact as well as effects on the manufacturing sector, small and medium-sized enterprises, or SMEs, and the agriculture, fisheries and forestry sectors, with relevant government agencies and research institutes taking part in the study. In manufacturing, joining CPTPP is expected to increase output value by 6.3 to 6.7 trillion won per year, or about 4.6 billion dollars, over the 15 years after accession. The agricultural sector, by contrast, could be hit negatively, with output value potentially falling by about 710 billion won per year. The South Korean government decided in 2022 to push ahead with joining CPTPP, but it has not yet submitted a formal application, facing opposition from the agriculture and fisheries sectors as well as strained relations with Japan. Last month, the South Korean government said it would review the possibility of joining CPTPP based on the country's interests and the benefits its people would receive. CPTPP is a regional trade agreement in the Indo-Pacific, currently with 12 members including Japan, Mexico, Australia, Canada and Vietnam. Together, its members accounted for about 15.2% of world trade in 2019.