Tisco favours hotel sector, highlights ERW, SHR and CENTEL as tourism recovery plays

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The analyst team at Tisco Securities maintains an Overweight rating on the hotel sector, seeing several growth drivers in the second half of 2026, including the normalisation of the global tourism recovery, improving trends in the meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions, or MICE, business, and the continued recovery in flight numbers, which is expected to support growth in revenue per available room, or RevPAR, in 2026 and 2027. The hotel stocks favoured by the research team, in order of preference, are ERW, SHR, CENTEL, MINT and AWC. The four hotel companies under coverage reported combined core profit of 3.99 billion baht, up 5.5% year on year and up 68.8% from the previous quarter, while the stocks under coverage posted RevPAR growth of around 12% to 13% compared with the same period a year earlier. The research team has initiated coverage of SHR with a buy rating and a fair value of 2.20 baht, based on an EV/EBITDA of 5.5 times at the end of 2027, equivalent to a forward P/E of 9.4 times. It maintains a buy rating on CENTEL with a revised fair value of 50.00 baht, a buy rating on ERW with a fair value of 4.20 baht, and a buy rating on MINT with a fair value of 32.00 baht. AWC keeps a hold rating with a fair value of 3.20 baht. Foreign tourist arrivals are expected to rise to 35.4 million in 2027, or 9% growth from the same period a year earlier, with the 2027 tourist arrival forecast cut by 2% from the previous estimate made in July 2026.

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