Tisco points to strong Q2 recovery for power plant stocks, led by GULF's profit growth

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Tisco Securities expects the power plant sector to report strong second-quarter 2025 results, with combined net profit of the companies under its coverage, excluding RATCH, estimated at approximately 15.7 billion baht, up 26 percent from the previous quarter but down 77 percent from the same period last year due to a high base that included extraordinary items from GULF's merger. GULF is expected to post the most outstanding profit growth from the prior quarter, with core profit forecast to rise 74 percent year-on-year, driven by dividends from KBANK, seasonally better performance at its IPP power plants, and the restart of the Jackson power plant in the United States. EGCO is forecast to report net profit of 841 million baht, down from both the previous quarter and the same period last year, weighed by weaker results at the Paju power plant in South Korea, the Yunlin wind farm in Taiwan, and projects in the United States, as well as the impact of a power purchase agreement change at the Quezon plant in the Philippines. GPSC's net profit is expected to increase 5 percent from the prior quarter but decline 11 percent year-on-year, supported by the restart of the GHECO-One plant, while its SPP business continues to face pressure from higher natural gas and coal costs. BGRIM is forecast to report net profit of 656 million baht, down from the previous quarter but up significantly from a year earlier, as it laps large foreign exchange losses, although pressure persists from rising natural gas costs and credit losses in Vietnam. Tisco maintains a positive view on the power plant sector, recommending a buy on GULF with a target price of 82 baht, EGCO with a target of 144 baht, and GPSC with a target of 51 baht, while recommending a hold on BGRIM with a target of 14.80 baht, and picks GULF as the top stock in the group.

Impact on assets 5

Energy Transition & Power Demand± Mixed · 4 stocks
B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited
BGRIM
± MixedCapitalrelevance

Forecast net profit of 656 million baht, down from previous quarter but up significantly year-on-year, with pressure from natural gas costs and credit losses; hold rating.

Global Power Synergy PCL
GPSC
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Net profit expected to increase 5% from prior quarter, supported by GHECO-One restart, though SPP business faces higher gas and coal costs; buy rating.

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
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