TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, or TISCO ESU, has raised its forecast for Thailand's economic growth in 2026 to 2.1% from 1.8%. Methas Rattanasorn, head of economic analysis, said the main drivers come from the AI investment cycle and continued expansion of global demand for electronics. However, TISCO ESU expects Thailand's economy to slow to 2.0% in 2027, pressured by the cost of living, energy prices holding at high levels, and cost-of-living support measures gradually coming to an end. It estimates Thailand will run a current account deficit of about 3% of GDP this year, and expects the Monetary Policy Committee to hold the policy rate at 1.00% at least until mid-2027, which could weaken the baht to 34.50 baht per US dollar by the end of this year, while inflation may return above 4% in the final quarter of the year. TISCO ESU also warned that Thailand must accelerate structural reforms to cope with Japanification, a risk it says is greater for Thailand than it was for Japan, because Thailand's per capita income is nearly half that of Japan before it entered its lost decades. The hybrid and electric vehicle industry accounts for only 1.7% of the manufacturing sector, while traditional industries make up more than three-quarters of industrial manufacturing.
TISCO Financial Group Public Company LimitedTISCO ESU raises Thailand's 2026 GDP forecast to 2.1% from 1.8%, a positive revision from the firm's own research unit.
TISCO expects the MPC to hold the policy rate at 1.00% until mid-2027 and the baht to weaken to 34.50 per USD, signaling a weaker THB.
