Nattakrit Laothawisap, Head of Wealth Advisory at TISCO Bank, said that for the remainder of the year the stock market will come under pressure from oil prices expected to stay elevated amid the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, pushing inflation higher, and central banks are expected to raise interest rates, including Europe and Japan. Most recently, the US Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise rates by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00%, and is likely to raise them again in December 2026 to 4.00-4.25%. This marks the first return to policy rate hikes since 2023, pushing the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds to a 20-year high of 5%, while the real yield stands above 2.6%, the highest in 18 years. TISCO Wealth Advisory therefore recommends three portfolio adjustments: increase the weighting of global bonds, maintain the weighting of energy stocks that benefit from tight supply, and reduce the weighting of growth stocks whose P/E is higher than the market, shifting instead to quality Value stocks with reasonable prices, strong earnings and high cash flow, such as financials, healthcare and industrials. It pointed to the lesson of the rising interest rate cycle in 2022, when the P/E of the MSCI ACWI Growth index fell by about 30%, while the P/E of MSCI ACWI Value fell by about 20%.
TISCO Financial Group Public Company LimitedTISCO's wealth advisory recommends portfolio shifts (global bonds, energy, value over growth) amid expected rate hikes and elevated oil, but this is house-view guidance rather than a direct hit to TISCO's own earnings.
Fed unanimously raised rates 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% and is likely to hike again in December 2026, pushing the effective federal funds rate higher.
Rate hikes and inflation expectations pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield to a 20-year high of 5%.
