TISCO: Treasury Twist Signals Intervention, Gold and Commodities to Benefit

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Summary · why it matters

TISCO Economic and Strategy Analysis Center (TISCO ESU) stated that the US Treasury Twist measure, although not yet able to pressure bond yields immediately, reflects the government's stance of being ready to intervene in financial markets to maintain costs conducive to investment, especially in AI. It pointed out that commodities and gold are assets that benefit in the long term and help diversify risk. Mr. Thanatach Srisawat, Head of Investment Strategy, said that the announcement of such measures came after the 30-year bond yield surged to 5.3%, the highest since before the 2008 global financial crisis, reflecting a Financial Repression policy similar to QE or YCC. Gold rose 10-15% within a few days after the announcement, and the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return index has delivered an average return of nearly 14% per year since 2021, close to the S&P 500, and was also positive in 2022 amid the supply shock.

Impact on assets 3

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Others▲ · 1 stocks
⛏Gold Futures
GOLD
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Intervention-style Treasury Twist and financial repression are framed as long-term supportive for gold, which rose 10-15% after the announcement.

Others▼ · 1 stocks
％United States 30 Year Bond Yield
US-30Y
▼ NegativeMonetaryrelevance

Treasury Twist / financial repression aimed at pushing yields down after the 30-year yield hit 5.3%, implying downward pressure on the yield.

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