The TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, or TISCO ESU, is warning that Thai SME operators are facing multiple risks: harder access to funding, rising financial costs, production costs pushed up by inflation, slowing consumer purchasing power, and intensifying competition. Methas Rattanasorn, head of economic research at TISCO ESU, said that more than half of the inventory increase in the second quarter came from categories where sales fell but stockpiles rose, such as automobiles, petroleum, and chemicals, which could drag on economic growth from the first quarter of 2027 onward. He also noted that exports in the first two quarters of 2026 grew 20%, but the manufacturing sector grew only 0.1%, reflecting that goods produced for the domestic market barely grew and were displaced by Chinese products. Meanwhile, Thailand's exports rely increasingly on imported goods and components, rising from 48% in 2018 to about 70% today, creating a hollowing-out effect, with real economic value added barely moving since mid-2024. Methas proposed that the government use tax incentives for operators that use domestic raw materials and labor, or local content, such as tax exemptions for using 50% local content, following the example of Singapore, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia. Thakorn Piyapan, chief executive of TMBThanachart Bank, or ttb, said the group of greatest concern is operators that have opened many branches to the point of fierce market competition, such as beverage shop chains. Rising-star businesses that align with an aging society include pet-related businesses, both dog and cat hotels and pet food, as well as health hospitality, massage, meditation, and health food, along with niche-market businesses such as small boutique hotels, electronic components and AI, and clinics certified by the Food and Drug Administration, or FDA. Electric vehicle businesses still have opportunities, especially repair shops that adapt to serve EVs, including paint repair, inspections, and specialized services. Thakorn advised SMEs to start with small, modest investments first to gauge the market, and not to rush into opening 10 branches at once.
TISCO Financial Group Public Company LimitedTISCO ESU warns of SME risks from bloated stockpiles, weak domestic demand, and Chinese import displacement, but no direct financial impact on TISCO is stated.
TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limitedttb CEO comments on at-risk SME operators and rising-star businesses, but the article states no direct financial impact on ttb.
