UOB Kay Hian expects Q3/26 banking sector profit at 64 billion baht, KBANK takes the crown

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Analysts at UOB Kay Hian Securities (Thailand) expect the combined net profit of the eight banks in the third quarter of 2026 to come in at 64 billion baht, down 10% year-on-year but up 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. Excluding provisions, the group's pre-provision operating profit is expected to fall 10% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter. On individual bank net profits, KBANK is forecast at 12.203 billion baht, down 7.9% quarter-on-quarter and down 6.2% year-on-year. KTB is seen at 12.121 billion baht, roughly flat quarter-on-quarter but down 17.1% year-on-year. SCB is expected at 11.62 billion baht, up 4.5% quarter-on-quarter but down 3.6% year-on-year. BBL is projected at 10.535 billion baht, up 10.9% quarter-on-quarter but down 23.6% year-on-year. BAY is estimated at 8.328 billion baht, up 0.4% quarter-on-quarter but down 5.2% year-on-year. TTB is forecast at 5.448 billion baht, down 1.2% quarter-on-quarter but up 2.8% year-on-year. KKP is seen at 1.925 billion baht, down 9.3% quarter-on-quarter but up 15.3% year-on-year, while TISCO is expected at 1.78 billion baht, up 0.9% quarter-on-quarter and up 2.9% year-on-year. The research team estimates the banking group's credit costs will fall 0.29% year-on-year and 0.12% quarter-on-quarter to 1.31% in the third quarter of 2026, and expects the NPL ratio to hold steady from the previous quarter at 3.1%. It has also trimmed its profit forecasts for the group by 1.4%, 0.3% and 0.5% for 2026 to 2028 respectively, while maintaining an OVERWEIGHT rating, with KBANK and KTB as its top picks.

Impact on assets 8

Financials▲ · 6 stocks
Bank of Ayudhya PCL
BAY
± MixedCapitalrelevance

BAY Q3/26 net profit forecast at 8.328 billion baht, down 5.2% y/y but up 0.4% q/q, part of the analyst earnings preview.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 2 stocks
Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
± MixedCapitalrelevance

BBL Q3/26 net profit projected at 10.535 billion baht, up 10.9% q/q but down 23.6% y/y, per UOB Kay Hian estimates.

SCB X Public Company Limited
SCB
± MixedCapitalrelevance

SCB's Q3/26 net profit forecast at 11.62bn baht, up 4.5% q/q but down 3.6% y/y, with group forecasts trimmed and OVERWEIGHT maintained.

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