Williams Signals Rate Hike Pause, October Odds Fall to 44%

Coinpedia··US·Read original
3▲0 ▼2Impact / 5
Summary · why it matters

The odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October have reversed course entirely after New York Fed President John Williams said there is no need to rush another rate hike, with the probability of a 25 basis point increase falling from more than 70% to around 44%. Speaking at a lecture at the University at Buffalo, Williams said the Fed's unanimous decision last month to raise rates to a range of 3.75% to 4% gives policymakers enough time to assess incoming economic data before taking their next step. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows the odds of an October hike have fallen to about 44.8%, while the market, including traders on the Kalshi platform, has shifted toward holding rates steady, with that probability rising to 55.2%. However, signals from the Fed are not all pointing in the same direction. Fed Governor Michael Barr said the central bank has been knocked off course by strong AI demand and higher oil prices, suggesting policy may need to be rebalanced. Williams also expects another rate hike later this year if the economy follows his projections, and expects inflation to reach 3.5% by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization now stands at 2.95 trillion dollars, barely changed over the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin accounting for 1.67 trillion dollars and a market share of 56.62%. Roughly 13,800 BTC was transferred out of Binance, the largest single-day net outflow since 2023, and Bitcoin is trading below 83,213 dollars. Spot trading volume in altcoins reached nearly four times that of Bitcoin, while Glassnode's Altcoin Cycle Signal index climbed above 81.

Impact on assets 3

Others▼ · 2 stocks
Others▲ · 1 stocks
Bitcoin
BTC-USD
± Mixedrelevance

Bitcoin noted trading below $83,213 with large Binance outflow, but no causal driver given for its price.

Off-coverage companies 2

BinancePrivate± Mixed
relevance

Binance only cited as venue for a 13,800 BTC single-day net outflow, no company-specific development.

GlassnodePrivate± Mixed
relevance

Glassnode's Altcoin Cycle Signal index above 81 is mentioned as market data, not a company event.

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