Yuanta Securities expects US midterm elections to pressure SET, sees volatility, highlights 6 stocks to weather the storm

Thunhoon··USTHIR·Read original
2▲0 ▼0Impact / 5
Summary · why it matters

Yuanta Securities assesses that this round of US midterm elections is likely to increase short-term volatility in the stock market, with the current environment bearing some resemblance to 2018, when the S&P 500 declined in the one month before the election amid pressure from trade tensions and the Fed's rising interest rate cycle. The key pressures this time come from the Iran war, the Fed's return to rate hikes, and political uncertainty ahead of the election. The difference from 2018 is the direction of Fed monetary policy, which, although returning to rate hikes again, is still less restrictive this cycle, and the latest Dot Plot suggests that further rate increases are likely limited. At the same time, the decision to raise rates this round also helps reinforce confidence in the Fed's independence and reduces the Policy Risk Premium somewhat. The research team assesses that although the market still faces the risk of a correction before or during the Midterm Election, the downside may be more limited than in 2018 due to reduced monetary policy pressure. Top Picks include JPMUS19, NVDA19, AMZN19, META80, and NBIS80. On the Thai stock side, they include GULF, GUNKUL, SSP, MINT, SCB, and BBL.

Impact on assets 7

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 3 stocks
Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 2 stocks
Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
± Mixedrelevance

Listed among Thai top picks (BBL) to weather the storm, with no bank-specific news.

SCB X Public Company Limited
SCB
± Mixedrelevance

Named among Yuanta's Thai top picks to weather election-driven volatility, but no company-specific development is cited.

Consumer Discretionary▲ · 1 stocks
Artificial Intelligence▲ · 1 stocks
Nebius Group N.V.
NBIS
± Mixedrelevance

Named as a top pick (NBIS80) to weather election-driven volatility, but no company-specific development given.

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