Precious Metals

China's central bank, the PBOC, said on October 7 that it added another 740,000 ounces of gold to its reserves in September, a 23rd consecutive monthly increase, as gold prices eased toward 4,000 dollars an ounce. Gold fell more than 6% in September as higher energy prices stemming from conflict in the Middle East stoked inflation and pushed the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, a survey of 74 central banks published by the World Gold Council in June found that 45% of respondents planned to buy more gold next year, the highest share since the survey began in 2018, with only one aiming to reduce purchases. Joachim Nagel, president of Germany's central bank, said earlier this week that rising government public debt is a factor pushing central banks to increase their gold holdings. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, deputy governor of the Bank of Italy, told the London Bullion Market Association's annual meeting in Sorrento on Monday, October 5, that gold is a safe asset whose role is especially important now amid high geopolitical risk and concerns about economic fragmentation.

Trinity Securities assesses that global stock markets in the fourth quarter of 2026 will face a tug-of-war between macro factors weighing on sentiment and micro factors supporting the market. It expects the SET Index to swing within a range of 1,500 to 1,700 points and recommends gradually accumulating stocks when panic selling occurs, through a bottom-fishing strategy. It also highlights five standout stock themes: livestock, tourism, retail, processed agricultural products, and sectors benefiting from foreign direct investment. Natchat Mekmasin, senior assistant managing director of the securities analysis department at Trinity Securities, said the SET Index target from the PE Model stands at 1,750 points in the best case, 1,630 points in the base case, and 1,510 points in the worst case, compared with the current SET level of about 1,580 points. Meanwhile, Thailand's implied equity risk premium is around 5.8%, higher than the long-term average of 4.0%. Kamolchai Polinthong assessed that the gold price has passed its low of 3,900 US dollars per ounce and recommends gradually accumulating in the 4,000 US dollars per ounce zone, aiming to take profits at a target of 5,000 US dollars per ounce early next year. At the same time, Trinity Securities has launched the DR Terminal program, developed jointly with the Stock Exchange of Thailand to help Thai investors access foreign stock data, with features including a Valuation Screener, DR Compare, and Trinity Underlying Scanner.

B2Gold has reported encouraging drilling results from its Back River Gold District program in Nunavut, confirming high-grade mineralization and a new Tattuk discovery near the Nuvuyak zone. The exploration update follows a 90 day share price return of 37.62% and a year to date gain of 19.19%, though the 30 day share price return slipped 4.77% and the 1 year total shareholder return stands at 2.81%. B2Gold's most followed narrative pegs fair value at CA$11.06 per share against a last close of CA$7.39, a 33% undervaluation gap. Planned operational upgrades including a wind farm and medium-speed generators at Goose are expected to structurally lower long-term fuel costs and emissions. The company's heavy exposure to higher risk regions and its finite reserve base remain key risks to that undervaluation story.

Eldorado Gold has secured permanent connection of its Skouries mine in northern Greece to the national power grid after final approval from the Greek transmission authority. The grid link provides long-term electricity supply for Skouries and supports ongoing processing and mining work as the operation moves toward planned commercial production in the fourth quarter of 2026. The company's shares last closed at CA$54.78, down 8.0% over the past month after a 90-day gain of about 30.2%, with a one-year total shareholder return of roughly 35.7%. Commissioning of the Skouries copper-gold project is slated for the first quarter of 2026 and remains on schedule, with the most followed analyst narrative pegging fair value at about CA$71.91, implying the stock is 24% undervalued.

Mr. Poon Panichpibool, a money and capital market strategist at Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krungthai Bank Public Company Limited, or KTB, said the 10-year US bond yield fluctuated within a range of 5.25% to 5.30%, tracking volatile crude oil prices amid uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East. Buy-on-dip purchases of long-term bonds by market players, along with the view that the US Federal Reserve, or FED, is not expected to raise interest rates again this year, helped cap and slow the rise in the 10-year US bond yield. KTB maintained its previous recommendation that market players can gradually buy long-term US bonds, especially when the 10-year US bond yield breaks above the 5.25% zone, where the risk-reward of holding long-term bonds is very attractive, or represents a clear asymmetric risk-reward, if one assesses a scenario in which the yield could move up or down by roughly 0.50% to 1.00%. In the currency market, the dollar moved sideways, with the dollar index, or DXY, still fluctuating around 101.9 points within a range of 101.7 to 102.1 points. As for gold prices, COMEX gold futures for December 2026 delivery continued to move sideways and held steady around 4,190 dollars per ounce, supported by buy-on-dip purchases from market players and remarks by the President of the German central bank, who said that government debt and rising geopolitical turmoil will support gold accumulation by central banks.

GoldInxs Mining Corp. has closed the first tranche of its previously announced non-brokered private placement, issuing 4,315,270 flow-through units at $0.13 each for gross proceeds of $560,985.10 and 784,831 units at $0.11 each for gross proceeds of $86,331.41, for aggregate gross proceeds of $647,316.51. Each unit consists of one common share and one common share purchase warrant, with each warrant exercisable at $0.25 for 24 months after closing, subject to an accelerated expiry provision if the shares trade at or above $0.50 for ten consecutive trading days. The company said proceeds will fund exploration work and other operations at its flagship Fishpot Project in Central British Columbia, along with general working capital. GoldInxs intends to pay aggregate cash finder's fees of $28,366.25 and issue 218,201 non-transferable finder's warrants, subject to TSX Venture Exchange acceptance, and may complete additional tranches of the offering. An insider purchased 385,000 flow-through units representing $50,050 of the gross proceeds, a related party transaction the company said is exempt from formal valuation and minority shareholder approval under MI 61-101.

StrikePoint Gold Inc. has completed its acquisition of the Northumberland Gold Project in Nevada's Walker Lane from subsidiaries of Newmont Corporation, paying US$70 million in upfront cash at closing on October 6, 2026. The company also agreed to two additional contingent cash payments of US$25 million each, the first due within 120 days after completion of a feasibility study and the second within 120 days after achieving certain commercial production milestones at Northumberland. The project hosts an initial independent mineral resource estimate of 2.86 million ounces of gold equivalent in the indicated category and 1.57 million ounces of gold equivalent in the inferred category, contained within 67 million tonnes and 31 million tonnes respectively, based on more than 1,500 historical drill holes. The escrow release conditions for a C$190 million bought deal private placement of 95 million subscription receipts at C$2.00 each, led by sole underwriter Canaccord Genuity Corp., were satisfied on October 6, 2026, ahead of the October 24 deadline, and the subscription receipts converted into 95 million common shares. Concurrently with closing, StrikePoint sold a 0.5% net smelter return royalty over Northumberland to an affiliate of Tembo Capital for US$10 million, with the company holding a right to buy back half of that royalty for US$25 million. Alan Pangbourne, who brings over 35 years of global mining operations experience, has been appointed to the board as chairman, and trading in the shares is expected to resume on the TSX Venture Exchange on or about October 8, 2026.

Gold prices rebounded today, supported by the decline in the dollar and US government bond yields. At 10:55 p.m. Thailand time, spot gold was up $34.87, or 0.80%, at $4,165.07 an ounce, while COMEX December gold futures rose $39.40, or 0.96%, to $4,196.20 an ounce. Investors increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its October meeting after the US services index fell to 54.9 in September, below the forecast of 55.2 and down from 55.4 in August. The latest CME Group FedWatch Tool shows investors now assign a 78.4% probability to the Fed holding rates at 3.75-4.00% in October, up from just 29.1% a week ago, and cut the odds of a 0.25% hike to 4.00-4.25% to 21.6% from 70.9% a week earlier. The market is also watching remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who will appear alongside International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on October 16 during the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings 2026 in Bangkok, before the Fed enters its blackout period on monetary policy comments on October 17 and holds its FOMC meeting on October 27-28. Meanwhile, global crude oil prices fell, with Brent crude dropping more than 1% below $99 a barrel and West Texas crude falling more than 1% below $89 a barrel, after reports of higher oil exports from the Middle East and the release of oil from G7 strategic reserves.

Big Bear Gold Corp. says its common shares are expected to resume trading on the TSX Venture Exchange at market open on Thursday, October 8, 2026. Trading had been halted on September 28, 2026, pending news of the company's acquisition of an optioned interest in the Peerless Property. Under an assignment and assumption of property option agreement dated September 25, 2026, with Bathurst Metals Corp. and Stanley R McClay as bare trustee for BCT Holdings Corp., the company will acquire Bathurst's 100% optioned interest in the Peerless Property in the Bridge River Mining Camp, British Columbia. The transaction remains subject to TSXV approval, and full details were set out in the company's news release dated October 1, 2026.

First Majestic Silver Corp. hiked its 2026 production outlook after second-quarter silver output rose 3% year over year to 3.8 million ounces, driven by solid performances at the La Encantada and Santa Elena mines. The company now expects total silver production of 14.6-15.5 million ounces, up from its previous guidance of 13-14.4 million ounces, a 4% year-over-year improvement at the mid-point, while total gold production for 2026 is expected to be 128,000-135,000 ounces, up from the previous forecast of 116,000-129,000 ounces. Within that total, the Los Gatos mine is expected to produce 5.1-5.5 million ounces of silver in 2026, a 5% increase at the mid-point from previous guidance, and the La Encantada mine's silver production is expected to rise 19% at the mid-point from previous guidance to 3.4-3.6 million ounces. The Santa Elena mine is expected to produce 72,000-76,000 ounces of gold, up 10% at the mid-point from prior guidance, while San Dimas is expected to produce 4.6-4.9 million ounces of silver, up 13% at the mid-point, on higher throughput rates. First Majestic produced 7.3 million ounces of silver and 69,001 ounces of gold in the first half of 2026, and its shares have gained 36.4% over the past year.

Barrick Mining Corporation announced that the Government of Tanzania has renewed the Special Mining Licenses for its North Mara Gold Mine for another 15 years, supporting continued investment in the mine, its workforce and surrounding communities. Since Barrick took over operations in 2019, Tanzanian nationals have come to account for 96% of the company's approximately 3,000 employees in the country, with 47% drawn from communities surrounding its mines. Barrick has contributed approximately $5.3 billion to Tanzania's economy since 2019, including $1.2 billion in 2025 through taxes, royalties, salaries, dividends and local procurement, and more than 90% of its procurement is sourced from Tanzanian-registered companies, the majority of them indigenous businesses. The renewal reinforces the partnership between Barrick and the Tanzanian Government, which established Twiga Minerals in 2019 to jointly operate the North Mara and Bulyanhulu mines, with the Government holding a 16% interest in each mine while the two partners share the economic benefits equally. Barrick said the license renewal marks an important milestone for North Mara and its partnership with Tanzania, reinforcing its commitment to long-term relationships with government, communities and other stakeholders.

Kinross Gold Corporation has raised its 2026 return of capital target to 50% of free cash flow from 40%, citing its cash flow outlook and balance sheet strength. The company returned $752.4 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2025, and has returned approximately $800 million so far in 2026, including $655 million through share repurchases. Earlier this year its board approved a 14% increase to its quarterly dividend, amounting to 16 cents per share on an annualized basis. Kinross logged attributable free cash flow of $726.8 million in the second quarter and $1.56 billion in the first half of 2026, with Tasiast and Paracatu remaining the key contributors to cash flow generation and production. Among peers, Barrick Mining Corporation returned $2.4 billion to shareholders in 2025 and $1.5 billion in the second quarter, while Agnico Eagle Mines Limited returned around $1.4 billion in 2025 and plans to return 40% of its annual free cash flow this year.

Amaroq Ltd. reported gold production of approximately 12 koz for Q3 2026 and approximately 21 koz for the nine months ended 30 September 2026 from its Nalunaq gold mine in southern Greenland, reaching its Q4 2026 production target of 12 koz one quarter early. The company reiterated its FY2026 gold production guidance of 25 to 35 koz. Amaroq also announced its inclusion in the FTSE 250 Index as of market open on 8 October 2026, following the announcement from FTSE Russell. CEO Eldur Olafsson said the quarter demonstrated growing operational consistency and the impact of enhanced recoveries from the flotation recovery circuit commissioned earlier in the summer, and that the index inclusion validates the company's move from AIM to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Amaroq is listed on the LSE and Nasdaq Iceland under the ticker AMRQ and on OTCQX under AMRQF.

Precious metals consultancy Metals Focus said in its annual report that it expects gold prices to set a record high in 2027. It said persistent inflation, a widening U.S. fiscal deficit and policy uncertainty will drive the rise as investors seek alternatives to traditional dollar-denominated assets. The average gold price in 2027 is projected to reach $5,330 an ounce, about 22% above current levels, though the U.S. Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy further to counter above-target inflation, which could pose short-term headwinds. Spot gold hit a record high of $5,594.82 in late January 2026, but has since fallen 25% amid soaring energy prices and Fed tightening, and is currently trading around $4,152.27. Metals Focus also expects silver to benefit from many of the same macroeconomic factors supporting gold and to rise over the next 12 to 18 months, with average prices climbing from $70 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026 to above $90 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2027. For platinum, it expects the average price in 2027 to be $2,060 an ounce as tight physical supply eases but a continued supply deficit supports prices, marking a fifth consecutive annual supply shortfall.

Hong Kong imported a total of 112.7 tonnes of gold of Russian origin in the first seven months of 2026, a record high and already more than the 92.1 tonnes imported in all of 2025, according to a CNBC report citing data from BullionVault, which analysed figures from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. The figures mark a sharp increase from 2021, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when Hong Kong imported only 3.3 tonnes of Russian gold. Russian gold accounted for nearly 15% of Hong Kong's non-monetary gold imports in the first seven months of this year, up from just 0.6% in 2021. A key turning point came in March 2022, when the London Bullion Market Association, or LBMA, suspended all six Russian gold and silver refineries from its Good Delivery List. The United States, Britain and other Western countries then imposed further restrictions on trade in Russian gold, effectively closing off markets that had once been key destinations for the metal. Vita Spivak, a senior adviser at Gatehouse Advisory Partners, said Hong Kong has become a major hub for trade between Russia and China since the war in Ukraine, with most of the gold ultimately destined for mainland China. Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, said Hong Kong's official data showing a rapid rise in Russian gold imports reflects the trade relationship and support between Russia and China, while Russian gold exports to Britain and Western countries that imposed sanctions have fallen sharply. The inflow of Russian gold comes as China is also broadening its gold purchases, designating gold as a strategic mineral, and the Chinese central bank continues to add gold to its reserves. Data from S&P Global shows China's official gold reserves rose by more than 40 tonnes in the first half of 2026, more than double the amount bought in the same period a year earlier.

Senior officials from the Italian and German central banks said gold remains a strategic reserve asset amid concerns over rising public debt and geopolitical uncertainty, even as bond yields have surged this year. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Italy, told the annual meeting of the London Bullion Market Association in Sorrento, Italy, on Monday, October 5, that gold is a safe asset and that this role is especially important in times of high geopolitical risk. He noted that the structure of the gold market has changed since 2022, driven by central bank buying in emerging market countries, significantly weakening the traditional inverse relationship between gold and real bond yields. Joachim Nagel, President of Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, said that although higher yields increase the appeal of bonds, diversification through holding gold remains crucially important given geopolitical tensions and credit risks from high levels of public debt. Metals Focus forecast in June that global central bank gold demand would slow by 15% year on year to 720 metric tons in 2026, but would still remain above pre-2022 levels. Although gold prices have fallen about 4% this year as U.S. Treasury yields climbed to multi-decade highs, prices have held above the 4,000 dollar level, supported by central bank buying and safe-haven demand.

Lightning Minerals Ltd has started Phase 2 diamond drilling at its wholly owned Mt Turner Gold Project in North Queensland, targeting extensions to mineralisation along the 14-kilometre Drummer Fault corridor. Managing director Troy Brice said the rig is mobilised and crews are on site, with the program comprising five targeted diamond drill holes for around 650 metres. The campaign follows the company's 2025 program, which Brice said delivered a 100% success rate, and is designed to test mineralisation along strike and at depth while adding support to the geological model, including validation from a University of New South Wales petrology report. Results are expected to contribute to a 3D geological model and support work towards a maiden mineral resource estimate for the Mt Turner Gold Project in 2027. Brice said Lightning Minerals believes Mt Turner has the potential to represent a district-scale gold system, with further exploration targets available beyond the current drilling area, and noted the company's strategic focus remains on gold and copper, with tungsten also emerging as an additional opportunity at Warby.

The World Gold Council estimates that the above-ground stock of gold mined by humanity stood at about 220,000 tonnes at the end of 2025, with two-thirds of that mined since 1950. The above-ground stock in 2010 was about 160,000 tonnes, meaning roughly 60,000 tonnes were added over the past 15 years. Mine production rose from around 400 tonnes a year in the early 1900s to about 3,800 tonnes in 2025, a record high, while gold prices are also at record levels. Comparing 2011 with 2025, among demand derived from mine production, jewellery demand fell by 300 tonnes, from 700 tonnes to 400 tonnes, while central banks increased their purchases by 300 tonnes, from 500 tonnes to 800 tonnes, and investment demand rose by 500 tonnes, from 1,700 tonnes to 2,200 tonnes. Central banks have been net buyers since 2010, exceeding 1,000 tonnes a year from 2022 to 2024 and surpassing 800 tonnes in 2025, well above the 2010-2021 average of 473 tonnes.

NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC. has filed and begun mailing its management information circular and definitive proxy statement for a November 3, 2026 special meeting at which shareholders will vote on the previously announced all-share transaction that would take its ownership of the Donlin Gold project in Alaska from 60% to 100%. Under the arrangement, a newly incorporated Delaware company, New NOVAGOLD, would become the ultimate parent of NOVAGOLD and its subsidiaries and would acquire the 40% interest in Donlin Gold LLC held by Paulson Advisers LLC and certain affiliates through Donlin Gold Holdings LLC. NOVAGOLD's board has unanimously recommended that shareholders vote FOR the Arrangement Resolution and each other resolution, and Citigroup Global Markets Inc. has delivered an opinion that the consideration to be received by NOVAGOLD shareholders other than Paulson is fair from a financial point of view. Shareholders of record as of September 23, 2026 are being asked to approve the arrangement by not less than two-thirds of votes cast, along with resolutions covering a New NOVAGOLD 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan, a New NOVAGOLD Employee Stock Purchase Plan, a NOVAGOLD Employee Share Purchase Plan and advisory compensation for named executive officers. The proxy voting deadline is October 30, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. Vancouver Time, and the board says the combined company is expected to have a market capitalization of approximately $4.9 billion, based on a NOVAGOLD closing price of $7.25 per share on September 15, 2026, with projected production of 1.3-million ounces of gold annually in its first 10 full years and 1.1-million ounces annually over the 27-year mine life.

Pan American Silver Corp. estimates 2026 project capital of $40-$43 million for its Timmins operation in Ontario, where it expects to produce 105.5-115 thousand ounces of gold at an estimated AISC of $2,575-$2,675 per ounce. The Timmins operations consist of the Timmins West and Bell Creek underground gold mines, which supply ore to the Bell Creek processing plant with a design capacity of 5,600 tons per day and current throughput of 4,400 tons per day. Timmins produced 103.6 thousand ounces of gold in 2025 at an AISC of $2,443 per ounce, and the company plans to drill 118,000 meters at Timmins in 2026. In June 2026, Pan American Silver identified mineral resources at the Bell Creek mine and satellite deposits, and it is proceeding with a conceptual plan for phased development of these new resources. The company has commenced the first phase of the Timmins Camp Project following board approval and a total investment of $146 million.

OceanaGold reported new drilling results from its Wharekirauponga project in New Zealand in late September 2026, highlighting multiple wide, high-grade gold intercepts that reinforce the continuity of the southern high-grade EG Vein and associated hanging-wall structures. Drilling has accelerated with five active rigs, and promising intercepts outside the current resource model point to a potentially larger, better-defined mineralized system that could influence future resource classification and project planning. The company's narrative projects $2.2 billion in revenue and $764.2 million in earnings by 2028, requiring 12.7% yearly revenue growth and a $388.4 million earnings increase from $375.8 million today. The update comes as OceanaGold plans the April 2027 retirement of CEO Gerard Bond, who is set to stay on as a Special Advisor for six months. Before this Wharekirauponga update, the most pessimistic analysts were still penciling in about US$2.6 billion of revenue and US$1.4 billion of earnings by 2029.

Silver price rose 2.3% to near $61.80 during Monday's European session as traders scaled back hawkish Federal Reserve expectations following soft September US labor data. The economy created just 29K jobs in September, below the 90K estimate and a prior reading revised down to 133K from 162K, while the Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.2% against expectations it would hold at 4.1%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a Fed rate hike at this month's policy meeting have fallen to 19.4% from 70.9% a week ago. Deutsche Bank analysts, however, see the broader labor market as broadly stable and expect two further 25 basis point Fed hikes over the next couple of quarters. The US Dollar Index rose 0.3% to near 102.20 and touched a fresh annual high near 102.53, supported by safe-haven demand tied to heightened French fiscal risks. On the technical side, XAG/USD trades at $61.69 below its 20-day exponential moving average at $63.24, with the Relative Strength Index at 43.89, while $30 is the immediate support zone and the August 3 low sits at $56.57.