Bualuang raises Thai stock market profit target, highlights 8 standout stocks CRC, AMATA, GUNKUL as energy beneficiaries

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Summary · why it matters

Bualuang Securities (BLS) has revised up its earnings estimate for the Thai stock market in September by 0.7% month-on-month and 15.6% since the start of the year. Piriyapon Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management, said the main driver came from groups benefiting from energy and commodity prices amid prolonged wars. The petrochemical group was raised 6.2% month-on-month, led by PTTGC up 13% and IVL up 7%, while the energy group rose 1.8% on refineries BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, pushing PTT up another 2%. The agricultural group rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA raised 26%. On the other side, groups whose costs are linked to energy prices were revised down, led by PTG down 26% and OR down 4%, as well as SPP power plants such as BGRIM down 2% and GPSC down 1%. Meanwhile, businesses sensitive to the economy such as property, LH down 1% and ORI down 13%, also faced downgrades. This reflects a clearer divergence in earnings direction between industry groups and individual companies. The strategy therefore focuses on Earnings Leaders with strong profits. CRC is expected to post core profit growth of 25 to 30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 from same-store sales growth of around 2% and revenue growth of about 4% year-on-year. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% year-on-year. BH and BDMS are entering a seasonal profit recovery period. AOT, AWC and CENTEL benefit from tourism entering the high season, with AOT's winter slots from October 2026 to March 2027 up 4% year-on-year and AWC's RevPAR in July to August up 23% year-on-year, while CENTEL rose 5 to 6% year-on-year. AMATA is supported by data center demand adding clarity to profits, and GUNKUL benefits from a recovery in wind power plants along with investment opportunities in transmission systems.

Impact on assets 22

Energy Transition & Power Demand± Mixed · 6 stocks
Global Power Synergy PCL
GPSC
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

BLS revised down SPP power plant earnings, with GPSC cut 1% as energy-linked costs weigh on profits.

PTT Public Company Limited
PTT
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

PTT's earnings estimate was raised another 2% as part of the energy group benefiting from energy prices.

Real Estate± Mixed · 3 stocks
Origin Property PCL
ORI
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

Origin Property's earnings estimate was downgraded 13% as an economy-sensitive property business.

Consumer Discretionary▲ · 2 stocks
Electrification & Mobility▼ · 2 stocks
PTG Energy PCL
PTG
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

PTG's earnings estimate was cut 26% because its costs are linked to energy prices.

Climate Adaptation & Water▲ · 1 stocks
Critical Materials & Supply Chain▲ · 1 stocks
Indorama Ventures PCL
IVL
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

IVL's earnings estimate was raised 7% as part of the petrochemical group benefiting from energy and commodity prices.

Industrials▲ · 1 stocks
Airports Of Thailand PCL
AOT
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

AOT benefits from tourism high season, with winter slots Oct 2026-Mar 2027 up 4% year-on-year.

Health Care▲ · 1 stocks
Bumrungrad Hospital PCL
BH
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

BH is entering a seasonal profit recovery period, per BLS's standout stock picks.

Consumer Staples▲ · 1 stocks
Aging Population▲ · 1 stocks
Materials▲ · 1 stocks
Energy▲ · 1 stocks
Synthetic Biology (non-pharma)▲ · 1 stocks
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