Food purchased from stores in Canada rose 4.3% year over year in May, up from 3.8% in April, marking the 16th consecutive month that food retail inflation has outpaced headline consumer price growth. Fresh fruit prices climbed 5.3% after a 0.5% decline in April, driven by berries and grapes, while fresh vegetable prices surged 9% following a 4.1% increase, with tomato prices jumping more than 45% due to supply contractions from poor weather in Mexico and reduced acreage after US tariffs. The overall Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% in May, up from 2.8% in April, partly because of higher fuel costs. Canada's Competition Bureau has launched a review of competition across the food-and-drinks supply chain, examining production and processing, transport and distribution, and retail pricing practices, with a final report expected in the first half of next year.
Royal Irrigation Department cuts Chao Phraya Dam outflow to 2,400 cubic metres per second
The Royal Irrigation Department is preparing to gradually reduce the discharge below Chao Phraya Dam to 2,400 cubic metres per second, after water volumes from upstream areas have continued to trend downward. Currently, Chao Phraya Dam is releasing water at a rate of 2,500 cubic metres per second, and the water level above the dam stands at +16.38 metres above mean sea level. The reduction will begin at 08:00 today, 7 October, decreasing by about 20 cubic metres per second per hour until it reaches 2,400 cubic metres per second at 13:00, and that rate will be maintained thereafter. As of 06:00, Station P.17 on the Ping River had a flow of 484 cubic metres per second, while Station N.67 on the Nan River had a flow of 998 cubic metres per second, bringing the combined flow at Station C.2 in Nakhon Sawan province down to 1,915 cubic metres per second. Meanwhile, the Sakae Krang River at Station Ct.19 in Uthai Thani province had a flow of 52 cubic metres per second. At the same time, the department has reduced water intake into the irrigation systems on both the eastern and western sides to a combined 487 cubic metres per second, down from 564 cubic metres per second yesterday, so that management of the entire water system remains balanced and consistent with the declining water volumes. The Royal Irrigation Department will continue to closely monitor rainfall and runoff from upstream areas.
J.P. Morgan Upgrades Corteva to Overweight After Vylor Spinoff, Sets $19 Target
J.P. Morgan upgraded Corteva to Overweight from Neutral on Tuesday, arguing that the agricultural-chemicals company left behind after the spinoff of its seed business is undervalued and has a stronger financial profile than its share price suggests. Lead analyst Jeffrey J. Zekauskas set a December 2027 price target of $19, compared with Corteva's Oct. 5 closing price of $12.39, implying upside of about 53%; the sharp reduction from J.P. Morgan's previous $83 target reflects the separation of Corteva's seed business into Vylor rather than a comparable collapse in the bank's assessment of the underlying company. The new Corteva consists of the former company's crop-chemicals operations, which J.P. Morgan estimates has a gross margin of about 38%, ebitda margins of 16.5% to 17% and negligible net debt, with the shares trading at roughly 5.7 times estimated 2027 ebitda, about one turn below rival FMC despite FMC carrying substantially more leverage. Zekauskas estimates a high-quality crop-chemicals business could ordinarily warrant about 10 times 2027 ebitda, equivalent to roughly $21 a share before environmental liabilities, but J.P. Morgan uses a more conservative 9-times multiple to reach its $19 target, accounting for uncertainty over PFAS and PFOA liabilities inherited from the former DuPont structure; it models a conservative scenario in which combined liabilities for DuPont, Chemours and Corteva reach $8 billion, twice the existing $4 billion framework, putting Corteva's responsibility at about $1.3 billion, or roughly $2 a share. J.P. Morgan forecasts Corteva revenue rising from $7.87 billion in 2026 to $8.10 billion in 2027, adjusted ebitda increasing from $1.28 billion to $1.37 billion, adjusted EPS climbing 31.6% to 85 cents in 2027 and free cash flow to the firm jumping to $542 million from an estimated $63 million this year, with potential catalysts including $300 million in run-rate savings targeted from 2024 through 2027 and $500 million by 2029, plus a recovery in grain prices.
CTVA · Capital · Positive J.P. Morgan upgraded Corteva to Overweight and set a $19 price target, calling the post-Vylor crop-chemicals business undervalued at ~5.7x 2027 EBITDA.
FMC · Competition · Neutral FMC is named only as a valuation comparison, with Corteva trading about one turn below FMC despite FMC carrying substantially more leverage.
Nutrien to Indefinitely Shut Trinidad Nitrogen Operations
Nutrien Ltd. announced it will indefinitely shut down its Trinidad Nitrogen operations at the Point Lisas Facility following a comprehensive review of strategic alternatives and discussions with relevant stakeholders. The decision responds to ongoing natural gas constraints and supply uncertainty and is aimed at reducing pressure to enhance free cash flow and return on invested capital. Nutrien had previously implemented a controlled shutdown of the facility on Oct. 23, 2025, due to port access restrictions and a lack of reliable and economic natural gas supply, and it determined that permanently halting operations was the optimal path. The shutdown should not affect Nutrien's 2026 nitrogen sales volume guidance, which was maintained at 9.2-9.7 million tons, because the company had already assumed no production from Trinidad's operations. On its second-quarter call, the company raised its 2026 Potash sales volume guidance to 14.2-14.8 million tons from 14.1-14.8 million tons, while Phosphate sales volume guidance remains 2.4-2.6 million tons and global potash shipments are projected at 74-77 million tons for 2026.
NTR · Supply · Positive Nutrien indefinitely shuts its Trinidad nitrogen operations due to natural gas constraints, cutting high-cost capacity and easing pressure to improve free cash flow and ROIC.
FMC Files Rimisoxafen Herbicide for Approval in Brazil
FMC Corporation has submitted a regulatory dossier for rimisoxafen to Brazilian authorities, the second global regulatory submission for the herbicide after its filing with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in July 2026. Brazil is one of the world's largest soybean and corn producers, with more than 50 million hectares of soybeans and more than 20 million hectares of corn under cultivation, where growers are increasingly battling resistant broadleaf weeds including Amaranthus hybridus and Amaranthus palmeri. The Herbicide Resistance Action Committee classified rimisoxafen under Groups 12 and 32, and as the first dual mode of action herbicide its field testing has shown consistent activity against small-seeded broadleaf weeds, including those resistant to other herbicides. Rimisoxafen is the third novel herbicide active ingredient FMC has advanced to regulatory submission in Brazil, following Isoflex and Dodhylex, though it remains subject to regulatory review and approval and is not currently registered for sale or use in Brazil or any other country. FMC shares have slumped 72.6% in the past year compared with the industry's 10% growth in the same period.
FMC · Regulation · Positive FMC filed its rimisoxafen herbicide dossier with Brazilian regulators, advancing a novel active ingredient toward approval in a major crop market
Cabinet approves 8-year Chao Phraya-Pa Sak-Gulf of Thailand project, initial funding set for 2027
The Cabinet meeting approved the Chai Nat-Pa Sak-Gulf of Thailand project with an 8-year implementation period from 2027 to 2034 to address flooding and drought problems in the long term. It is expected to reduce damage by 16.93 billion baht per year and reduce flooded area by 3.48 million rai, along with a dry-season water retention canal of approximately 1,555 million cubic meters, and a budget for 2027 has already been set to start the project. As for the Bang Bala-Bang Sai drainage project, another project that is continuing but not yet complete, the original contract was to finish in 2026-2027 and be extended to 2029, but the Cabinet saw that the time should not be extended again. The Royal Irrigation Department, which is responsible for the work, therefore moved the deadline to July 2028 and will not allow further extension. The meeting also approved a central budget for 2026 of 4.731 billion baht to provide relief and rehabilitation for flood victims in Bangkok and across the country, assigning the Ministry of Interior to expedite coordination with relevant agencies and local authorities to deliver assistance to the public as quickly as possible. Meanwhile, the Chao Phraya River Basin management meeting resolved to allow the Chao Phraya Dam to release water at a maximum of 2,200 cubic meters per second, up from 2,000 cubic meters per second, releasing it in stepped levels. If all the water is released, the water level will rise by 30 centimeters, and drainage will take place tomorrow.
Thai Chamber of Commerce expects flooding in 27 areas to cost the economy 12 billion baht
The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates that economic damage from flooding between September 25 and 29, 2026, a total of five days, covering Bangkok and 26 provinces in the central, eastern, northern, and northeastern regions, will be approximately 12.283 billion baht, or about 0.066% of annual GDP. The forecast range is between 5.896 billion and 20.635 billion baht, or 0.03% to 0.11% of GDP, depending on the actual extent of the flooded areas. Thanavath Phonvichai, chairman of the advisory board of the forecasting center, said the figures do not yet include damage to property, housing, vehicles, inventory, and agricultural output, which will be assessed clearly after the water recedes. Bangkok is expected to suffer the most damage at about 7.014 billion baht, or roughly 57% of total damage, followed by the eastern region at about 2.976 billion baht, with Chonburi hit hardest at about 2.101 billion baht, and the greater Bangkok area at about 1.839 billion baht, where Samut Prakan is the most affected in that group. The forecasting center assesses that the impact is not severe enough to change the direction of the economy for the full year, but it adds downward pressure on growth in the second half of the year. It recommends that the government speed up relief for informal workers and small operators, manage water in the Chao Phraya basin, and monitor prices of essential goods through the vegetarian festival from October 10 to 18, 2026.
Thailand
