Summary · why it matters
InnovestX Securities Company Limited assesses that Thailand's financial markets will remain volatile throughout the fourth quarter of 2026, pressured by interest rate hikes from major central banks worldwide. Suthichai Koomworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research, said there are seven signals to watch: crude oil prices, government bond yields, public debt burdens, the US election, natural disasters and the El Niño phenomenon, demand for AI technology, and the earnings of listed companies. Dr. Piyasak Manasant, Head of Economic Research, estimates the impact of flooding on the economy, especially in Bangkok, at approximately 21,000 million baht, split into about 19,000 million baht in the third quarter of 2026 and another approximately 1,800 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, representing pressure on GDP of about -0.11%. However, there is a positive factor from the extension of the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus Phase 2" program, which supports GDP by about +0.08%, leaving the net impact at only about -0.03%. GDP is expected to grow 2.0% both this year and next year. Meanwhile, Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy, views this round of flooding as only a short-term event and expects that fund flows, which saw outflows of about 30,000 million baht over the past two weeks, will return to buy after the waters recede. He gives a suitable entry point of 1,500 to 1,550 points, maintains this year's SET target at 1,700 points, and sets next year's target at 1,715 points. Top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 include AMATA with a target price of 44 baht, CENTEL with a target price of 47 baht, CRC with a target price of 31 baht, KTB with a target price of 49 baht, and PR9 with a target price of 23 baht.
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