Bualuang says flood impact on SET earnings limited, watches for AMATA production halt

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An analysis by Bualuang Securities assesses that the flood situation, which had expanded as of 1 October 2026 to cover 30 provinces and 191 districts in Bangkok, 1.18 million households and about 3.35 million people, is still having a limited impact on the economy. The Bank of Thailand estimates the effect on GDP at about 0.03–0.10% and expects the impact on GDP to be no more than 0.1% and on SET earnings no more than 2%, far below the major floods of 2011. The most important thing to watch is the duration of production halts in the industrial sector rather than the amount of flooded area. At AMATA City Chonburi, about 150 factories were affected and 34 temporarily halted production, while KCE and HANA have some production bases in Ayutthaya. As for DELTA's plants in Bang Pu and Wellgrow, no water entered the factories and operations have returned to normal. If factories can resume production quickly, the impact will be limited to short-term earnings, but if production halts drag on, damage to machinery, transport and the supply chain could raise risks to earnings further. Caution is therefore still warranted on AMATA as well as the automotive and electronics groups that have production bases in at-risk areas. BGRIM stated that its SPP power plants in AMATA City Chonburi and its floating solar facilities are still operating normally, and electricity demand from industrial customers has not been significantly affected. For other groups, the impact remains fairly limited. The retail lending group is expected to see an impact on 2026 earnings of about 2% for TIDLOR and MTC and 1% for SAWAD, while banks face their main risk from higher provisioning, with the impact on earnings estimated at about 1–2%, greater than the effect on interest income. Bualuang Securities views the volatility from the floods as an opportunity to gradually accumulate stocks with resilient earnings and a chance of a quick recovery, namely CRC, AWC, CENTEL, BDMS, BH, GULF, GUNKUL and DELTA, KCE, HANA, whose production bases have so far been only limitedly affected, while demand for AI and data centers remains a supporting factor.

Impact on assets 15

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 3 stocks
B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited
BGRIM
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

BGRIM stated its SPP power plants in AMATA City Chonburi and floating solar facilities are still operating normally with industrial electricity demand not significantly affected.

Financials▼ · 3 stocks
Semiconductors▼ · 2 stocks
Consumer Discretionary▲ · 2 stocks
Climate Adaptation & Water▼ · 1 stocks
Amata Corporation Public Company Limited
AMATA
▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

About 150 factories at AMATA City Chonburi affected and 34 halted production, with caution warranted on AMATA as flood-related production halts could drag on.

Electrification & Mobility▲ · 1 stocks
Real Estate▲ · 1 stocks
Aging Population▲ · 1 stocks
Health Care▲ · 1 stocks
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