The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, approved a plan by PJM Interconnection, the operator of the nation's largest power grid, to fast-track new electricity generation to meet soaring demand from the expansion of data centers and artificial intelligence technology, but ordered the plan's implementation suspended for five months, until February 28, 2027, while opening a process to receive written comments on issues that remain in doubt. FERC encouraged PJM to file a revised proposal that could help shorten the delay. Key issues to be addressed include cost allocation, financial security, and conditions for withdrawing from projects. FERC Chairman Laura Swett said the commission would not accept a generation procurement mechanism with significant flaws simply because it was submitted at the last minute, especially when the plan could impose financial burdens in the billions of dollars on consumers. FERC Commissioner Lindsay See said existing electricity users should not have to bear costs arising from new demand. Monitoring Analytics, the grid's independent watchdog, warned that if data center projects cannot proceed as planned, other electricity users may have to shoulder the costs instead. PJM plans to hold a single special generation procurement auction to make up for a shortfall of about 6.8 gigawatts, after this year's earlier auction failed to attract enough generation supply to meet demand during peak electricity use.
Monitoring Analytics warned that if data center projects cannot proceed, other electricity users may have to shoulder the costs, but the article gives no clear positive or negative for the watchdog itself.
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Shell Signals Another Earnings Beat as Refining Margins Near Double
Shell said on Wednesday it expects its indicative refining margin to leap to $42 per barrel, nearly double the $24 per barrel recorded in the previous quarter, setting the energy giant up for a bumper quarter in its products division. The company will release its full third-quarter results at the end of October, and Garry White, chief investment commentator at Raymond James, said the update suggests another strong set of results is in prospect and that a further earnings beat could be on the cards in the September quarter. The margin expansion follows G7 leaders agreeing to release a 100m emergency supply of diesel and oil in a bid to stave off a brewing supply crisis, with diesel prices smashing the 200p a litre mark in Britain for the first time ever last week. The surge in refining profitability will help offset softer performance in Shell's chemicals division and absorb roughly $2.5bn in expected cash outflows tied to German emissions certificate payments, though summer heatwaves across western Europe led to low water levels on the Rhine River and forced Shell to curtail processing at its flagship Rheinland refinery in Germany, pushing overall refinery utilisation down to between 93 per cent and 97 per cent compared to 102 per cent in the second quarter. Elsewhere, Shell reported a boost in gas production following the completed acquisition of ARC Resources, raising its integrated gas production outlook to 740,000–780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, after revealing the $16.4bn deal for the Canadian shale producer in April.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Pricing
SHEL.LSE · Capital · Positive Shell expects indicative refining margin to nearly double to $42/bbl, setting up a bumper quarter and possible earnings beat.
SHEL.LSE · Supply · Positive G7 emergency release of 100m barrels of diesel/oil amid a brewing supply crisis is driving the refining margin surge.
Maybank Highlights 4 Investment Themes Riding on PDP 2026 to Drive Thailand as a Data Center Hub
Maybank Securities (Thailand), or MST, hosted a special seminar, "Maybank Exclusive Meeting with Minister of Energy," inviting Ekkanat Prompan, Minister of Energy, to share his vision with institutional investors as they prepare for the energy transition and surging electricity demand from data centers and the digital economy. Ekkanat said Thailand's energy policy is advancing under the principles of clean energy, supply security, and fair prices, with the national Power Development Plan, or PDP 2026, as a key mechanism. It targets raising the share of renewable energy to 50% in the first 10 years, while opening the door to energy storage systems and smart grids, and preparing to launch a direct clean power trading market, or Direct PPA, to attract investment from big tech and data centers. On power generation, large private power producers, or IPPs, remain a crucial cog in maintaining the stability of Thailand's power system. In petroleum exploration and production, or E&P, the government aims to increase domestic energy sources, diversify supply sources, partner with neighboring countries, and promote biofuels including ethanol and biodiesel to cut crude oil imports and reduce risks from Spot LNG volatility. Based on these policy directions, MST identifies four investment themes to watch: renewable energy, energy storage systems, and smart grids; Direct PPA, data centers, and digital infrastructure; energy security such as E&P and natural gas; and IPPs and traditional power plants. It recommends selecting companies with quality assets, stable cash flows, and readiness to adapt to new forms of energy business.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Regulation
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Firm Power & Transition Fuels Regulation
MST.BK · Capital · Positive Maybank Securities (Thailand) hosted the seminar and its MST research unit identified four investment themes tied to PDP 2026, positioning it as the source of the investment thesis.
Shell Lifts Q3 Integrated Gas Output Forecast, Sees Stronger Refining Margins
Shell PLC raised its third-quarter integrated gas production forecast to 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from its previous guidance of 570,000 to 630,000 boepd. The British energy major produced 631,000 boepd in the second quarter, partly reflecting the acquisition of ARC Resources. Shell also forecast an indicative refining margin of $42 a barrel for the quarter, up sharply from $24 a barrel in the second quarter, while its indicative chemicals margin is expected to fall to $208 a tonne from $270 a tonne. The company warned that weaker chemicals margins and higher cash outflows could weigh on its results. Shell is due to report third-quarter results on Oct. 29.
Shell Guides to Higher Q3 Gas Production and Refining Margins, $300M Write-Off
Shell said Wednesday it expects about $300M in third-quarter upstream exploration well write-offs, alongside higher integrated gas production and refining margins. Upstream production is forecast at 1.735 million to 1.835 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, while integrated gas production is expected to rise to 740,000-780,000 boe/d and LNG liquefaction volumes are forecast at 7.2-7.6 million tonnes. In the second quarter, the European oil and gas major produced 631,000 boed, compared with over 900,000 boed before the US and Israel started a war on Iran in February. Shell's indicative refining margin is expected to rise to $42 a barrel in Q3'26 from $24 a barrel in Q2'26, with Trading & Optimisation expected to remain in line with the previous quarter. The update follows CEO Wael Sawan's Tuesday remark that oil flows from the Middle East have rebounded to roughly 80% of pre-war volumes, and last month's agreement to farm into two BP offshore exploration projects, taking a 30% interest in BP's Conifer prospect in the U.S. Gulf and a 50% stake in the Tupinamba block in Brazil's Santos Basin, with financial terms not disclosed.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Supply
SHEL.LSE · Capital · Positive Shell guides to higher Q3 integrated gas production and refining margins, though partly offset by ~$300M upstream exploration write-offs.
NATGAS · Supply · Positive Shell forecasts higher integrated gas production (740,000-780,000 boe/d) and LNG liquefaction volumes, signaling increased gas supply.
Broker says PDP2026 to be approved 2 months earlier, first power plant auction expected mid-2027
Bualuang Securities said the Power Development Plan 2026, or PDP2026, is likely to be approved by October 2026 through the energy minister, the Energy Policy Administration Committee and the National Energy Policy Council, without needing cabinet approval, about two months faster than the market had expected. New capacity for 2026-2037 remains unchanged at 50.9GW, and the first power plant auction is expected in mid-2027. What has changed is not the size of investment but the sequence of investment, because the current grid serves today's demand, not the volume of renewable energy. Battery energy storage systems, direct power purchase agreements and data centers under PDP2026 mean investment in transmission systems, smart grid substations and engineering, procurement and construction work must come before new power plants. Case 4, expected to be the main approach, requires investment of about 500 billion baht for grid stability during 2029-2050. Demand for direct power purchase agreements already exceeds 2,000MW and is not limited to data centers, while electricity demand from data centers has been confirmed at about 7-8GW. The deciding factors are the wheeling charge for grid use and the readiness of the transmission system. For battery storage, the ministry is giving more weight to large, grid-scale systems, with battery capacity in the plan for 2026-2037 at 14.5GW and possibly rising to 55GW by 2050. The broker keeps an above-market view on the utilities sector, with GULF and GUNKUL still the top picks, but the order of attractiveness has clearly shifted, with GUNKUL moving to the front on its transmission EPC business and electrical equipment that benefit before the power plant auction. GULF still has the greatest opportunity to add profit in value terms and has businesses covering renewable energy, battery storage and gas. GPSC is supported by power plant renewals and battery storage, BGRIM still needs clarity on the wheeling charge, and EGCO and RATCH stand out for dividends and the opportunity from power plant renewals.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Grid, Transmission & Power Equipment ▲Regulation
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Energy Storage & Grid Flexibility ▲Regulation
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Firm Power & Transition Fuels Regulation
GULF.BK · Demand · Positive PDP2026 approval expected two months early and confirmed 7-8GW data-center demand plus >2,000MW DPPA demand expand GULF's power project pipeline.
GUNKUL.BK · Demand · Positive Broker moves GUNKUL to top pick as its transmission EPC and electrical equipment businesses benefit first from grid investment before the power plant auction.
Brokers recommend buying GPSC and BGRIM after PDP2026 draft eyes 7-year PPA extensions for existing power plants
Dao Securities (Thailand) said the PDP2026 draft is likely to open the way for existing power plants to extend their power purchase agreements, or PPAs, by another 7 years, to bridge the transition period between the gradual expiry of existing plants and the entry of new capacity and renewable energy. There are concerns that new power plants may not be built and connected to the grid in time to meet rising electricity demand, particularly from data centers. Meanwhile, the Energy Policy and Planning Office said it will not extend PPAs for every plant, but will consider only projects essential to system stability, such as power plants in the EEC area. GPSC stands to benefit from the 713MW Glow IPP, while BGRIM has proposed extending PPAs for a total of 22 IPP-SPP projects with combined capacity of about 3,000MW. BANPU has the 1,434MW BLCP plant, whose agreements will gradually expire in 2032, while RATCH may benefit from gas-fired IPP plants that meet the criteria. Dao's research team has a positive view on the power plant sector, as PPA extensions will let operators keep using existing plants and infrastructure without large investments in new projects, while reducing risks from PPA expiries and enhancing the value of existing assets over the long term. The research team sees upside for GPSC and BGRIM from multiple projects that may win extensions, and therefore maintains buy ratings, with a target price of 60.00 baht for GPSC and 25.00 baht for BGRIM.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Firm Power & Transition Fuels ▲Regulation
BGRIM.BK · Regulation · Positive BGRIM proposed extending PPAs for 22 IPP-SPP projects totaling ~3,000MW under the PDP2026 draft, and Dao maintains a buy rating with a 25.00 baht target.
GPSC.BK · Regulation · Positive GPSC stands to benefit from the 713MW Glow IPP PPA extension under the PDP2026 draft, and Dao maintains a buy rating with a 60.00 baht target.
BANPU.BK · Regulation · Neutral BANPU's 1,434MW BLCP plant is mentioned as having PPAs expiring from 2032, but the article does not say it is a candidate for the 7-year extension.
RATCH.BK · Regulation · Neutral RATCH is only noted as possibly benefiting from gas-fired IPP plants that meet the criteria, with no confirmed project named.
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