Summary · why it matters
Global Securities, or GBS, assesses that the Thai stock market index in October 2026 is likely to move in a sideways-down pattern, with an expected trading range of 1,520-1,600 points, according to Wilasinee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director of Global Securities Company Limited. The main pressure comes from WTI crude oil prices in the global market surging past 100 dollars per barrel amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, military confrontations in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, combined with OPEC+ production capacity controls, before prices fell back below 90 dollars per barrel after G7 intervention and Saudi Arabia helped cool the rally. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years, and investors worry that the FED may raise interest rates another one to two times this year after already raising once. The Thai stock market was also pressured by foreign capital outflows totaling a net 20,000-25,000 million baht in September and the temporary impact of flooding, which Kasikorn Research Center estimates caused preliminary damage of 7,000-17,000 million baht. However, there are supporting positive factors from US Headline PCE inflation for August, which came in lower than expected at 3.4% year-on-year, US GDP for the second quarter of 2026 growing 2.2%, and the CME FedWatch Tool indicating the probability of a FED rate hike in October fell to only 24%. Meanwhile, Thailand's exports in August accelerated 24.3% year-on-year, worth 34,618.7 million US dollars, with exports to the US market expanding 48.7%, and in the first eight months of this year total exports were worth 266,149.7 million US dollars, expanding 18.9% year-on-year, leading major economic agencies to assess that Thailand's GDP for all of 2026 will grow in the range of 1.5%-2.5%. Watcharain Jongyanyong, Director of the Research Department at Global Securities, recommends an investment strategy in two groups of standout stocks: stocks benefiting from post-flood repairs, comprising GLOBAL, DOHOME, HMPRO, TASCO, DCC and DRT, and export stocks with continued growth prospects, comprising STA, TEGH, NER, AAI, ITC, TU, CCET, HANA, KCE and DELTA.
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