Moshi Moshi Retail Corp. PCL

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited said its research team holds a neutral to slightly positive view on the retail sector under its coverage, assessing that the impact from branch closures and travel restrictions remains limited. If the situation does not drag on beyond one week, the impact on each company's sales will not exceed 1%. In the short term, operators of everyday consumer goods such as BJC, CPALL, CPAXT, CRC-Tops and GO Wholesale will benefit from stockpiling. CPALL has a convenience store network of about 6,700 branches in Bangkok and its vicinity, accounting for 41% of its total branches. Meanwhile, the home repair and decoration group, including CRC-Thai Watsadu, DOHOME, GLOBAL, HMPRO, ILM and MRDIYT, is expected to benefit more after the waters recede. HMPRO has 39 large-format branches in Bangkok and its vicinity, or 32% of all large-format branches in Thailand. Using the Hat Yai flooding of 21–28 November 2025 as a case study, the retail sector index rose 0.5% on the first day and 1.4% in the first week, with home-improvement stocks responding more strongly, led by HMPRO up 3% on the first day and 10% in the first week, GLOBAL up 3% and 9%, and DOHOME up 1% and 6%. The research team maintains a NEUTRAL weighting on the retail sector, selecting CRC, followed by MOSHI and MRDIYT, as its top picks in that order.

Three brokerages issued their daily investment strategy views. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to slow within a range of 1,595 to 1,610 points, pressured by a sharp rise in US bond yields, with 5-year and 10-year yields breaking above 5%, while crude oil prices turned back up above US$100 per barrel once again. CGS International (Thailand) sees the SET Index in a range of 1,600 to 1,630 points, supported by the positive factor of the US and China agreeing to extend their trade truce by another two months until January 10, 2570. DAOL expects the SET Index to move sideways after the investment mood came back under pressure from bond yields and rising oil prices. For today's top picks, PTTEP is rated 'Buy' with a target price of 180.00 baht, and AOT is rated 'Buy' with a target price of 72.00 baht. Finansia Syrus's top picks for September are BTG, HANA, ITC, PR9 and STA, with STA rated 'Trading Buy' with a target price of 23 baht. MOSHI expects same-store sales growth of 4.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, and PR9 expects net profit for the hospital group in the third quarter of 2026 to rise 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter. Meanwhile, the ADB raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP in 2026 to 2.0% from 1.8%, but cut its 2027 forecast to 1.9% from 2.0%.

CGSI, or CGS International Securities (Thailand), expects the SET Index to hold above 1,600 points, supported by the positive factor of the US and China agreeing to extend their trade truce by another two months, until January 10, 2027. The statement came during a meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, helping to reduce geopolitical risk and supporting the global investment mood. CGSI sees the SET Index range at 1,600-1,630 points, even though it is being pressured by the rebound in oil prices and US bond yields, as well as uncertainty over the Middle East situation, after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared at the UN General Assembly that Iran will not surrender to US pressure. This sent the November Brent crude contract to close at 103.08 dollars per barrel, up 3.83 dollars, or 3.86%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones closed at 51,511.59 points, down 352.10 points, or 0.68%; the S&P500 closed at 7,706.03 points, down 58.61 points, or 0.75%; and the Nasdaq closed at 26,936.04 points, down 308.24 points, or 1.13%. For recommended stocks, CGSI expects MOSHI's same-store sales growth in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 to grow 4.3% year on year, with net profit growing 14.2% year on year. For the hospital group, it expects combined net profit in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 to rise 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter, driven by an increase in foreign patients as well as outbreaks of influenza and COVID-19.

UOB Kay Hian (Thailand) maintains a "Buy" rating on MOSHI, or Moshi Moshi, with a target price of 50.00 baht, based on a mid-2027 target price at a PE of 20 times, after MOSHI's management joined the Asian Gems Conference. Management's tone was neutral but still positive on the long-term outlook. The company aims to open 35 new branches per year, focusing on provincial markets, with at least 5 new standalone-format branches in major provincial cities. At the same time, MOSHI can raise its market share to 60.5% in 2025. On operating results, SSSG in the latest period grew 5-6% year on year, driven by effective marketing campaigns and growth in stationery sales, as well as the use of brand ambassadors such as Pond-Phuwin and Bookkin. However, gross margin in the third quarter of 2026 is likely to be pressured by the weaker baht and higher freight costs. The research team therefore expects net profit in the third quarter of 2026 to grow in the range of 10-15% year on year, compared with 21% year on year in the first half of 2026, before margins recover in the fourth quarter of 2026 on the back of a higher revenue share from products imported directly from China. The 2026 targets remain on plan, including revenue growth of 10-15%, year-on-year gross margin expansion, and the opening of 35 new branches. Meanwhile, the stock currently trades at a PE of 14.5 times, close to its historical low of about 14.0 times as of December 2025, which the research team views as an appropriate entry point.

Kasikorn Securities said in an analysis that the Cabinet's approval to extend the Thai Help Thai Plus program by another two months through November 2026, using roughly 43 billion baht remaining from the original program, could boost Thailand's economic growth prospects in 2026 through consumption, with gross domestic product possibly expanding about 2.2-2.3% versus the previous estimate of 2.0%. It therefore holds a mildly positive view on the Thai economy this year. On investment, Kasikorn Securities has a neutral to slightly negative view on retail stocks, since it had previously expected same-store sales to return to growth of about 3-4% after the original program ended in September 2026, but the two-month extension could pose a slight downside risk to same-store sales forecasts because those stores cannot join the program. Kasikorn Securities continues to favor Central Retail Corporation, or CRC, and Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation, or MOSHI, as they are expected to be only limitedly affected by the extension, along with fourth-quarter earnings momentum heading into the high season. The Thai Help Thai Plus (60/40) program is scheduled to run from October 1 to November 30, 2026, with the government co-paying 60% and the public paying 40%, with the government contributing no more than 200 baht per person per day and no more than 1,000 baht per person over the entire program.

Kasikorn Securities (KS) assesses that same-store sales growth (SSSG) for the retail sector in August 2026 is likely to expand slightly at 0-1%, supported by a low base in the previous year. Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) views that SSSG will mostly turn slightly positive, led by BJC, CPALL, CRC, and DOHOME, but CPAXT and HMPRO remain negative due to not participating in the "Thai Helps Thai Plus" project. KS expects the average SSSG for the sector in July-August to turn positive at approximately 0.5%, from a negative 0.6% in Q2 2026, and selects CPALL, MOSHI, and CRC as top picks. ASPS, on the other hand, selects CRC, COM7, and BJC. The research side maintains a "Neutral" view on the commerce sector, and ASPS maintains an "Equal-weight" investment rating on the commerce sector, expecting sector profits in 2026 to grow 12% year-on-year.

Krungsri Securities expects normal profits for the retail group (excluding IT products) in 3Q26F to still grow y-y, despite flat same-store sales (SSS), with the main support coming from expanding gross margins. Meanwhile, August SSS was flat y-y, slowing from +1% in July, due to frequent rain and weak purchasing power. However, Big C (a subsidiary of BJC) bucked the trend with 2% y-y growth, supported by product adjustments and orders from small retailers. The lifestyle and department store groups continued to perform well, with MOSHI and MRDIYT posting SSS growth of 4% and 1%, respectively, while CRC grew 1.5%. The home repair and decoration group contracted by an average of 1%, with GLOBAL weakest at -7% and HMPRO at -4%. September SSS recovery is expected to be limited due to the "Thai Helps Thai Plus" measures and high cost of living. The firm maintains a NEUTRAL stance on the retail group and selects MOSHI, CRC, and MRDIYT as top picks.

Krungsri Securities expects normalized profit for the retail sector in the third quarter of 2026 to grow year-on-year but decline quarter-on-quarter due to the rainy season. The year-on-year profit growth is driven by higher gross margins from product mix, promotional management, and lower transportation costs, while same-store sales are expected to be flat amid still-fragile purchasing power. The research team forecasts normalized profit for the retail sector in 2026 at 68.2 billion baht, up 9 percent year-on-year, higher than expected sales growth of 4 percent year-on-year. Excluding GLOBAL and DOHOME, which benefited significantly from low-cost inventory in the second quarter of 2026, MRDIY, MOSHI, and CRC are expected to post the strongest normalized profit growth in the sector. The firm maintains a neutral weighting on retail stocks because fragile purchasing power limits same-store sales recovery, and recommends selective plays, naming MOSHI, CRC, and MRDIY as top picks in the sector.

MOSHI reported second-quarter net profit for 2026 of 161.9 million baht, down 15.2% from the previous quarter but up 20.4% from a year earlier, supported by the expansion of 11 new branches to a total of 218, new product launches, and sales during the back-to-school and Songkran periods. Retail business grew 17.9% and the online channel grew 176.6%, while gross margin rose to 56.4% from 55%. The company announced an interim dividend of 0.64 baht per share, representing a yield of 1.6%, with the XD date on 28 August. For the second half, the company targets 2026 revenue growth of 15 to 20% and still has plans to open another 18 branches out of a full-year target of 35. The average target price from IAA Consensus is 48.94 baht.

TTB Wealth Securities maintains an Overweight recommendation on the retail sector, assessing that sector earnings have passed their trough and the contraction in same-store sales is coming to an end. It expects combined earnings per share of the retail companies under its coverage to grow 12 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, although down 16 percent quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors, and forecasts a continued recovery in the second half of 2026. Key drivers include a return to same-store sales growth, margin expansion from better product selection, and cost savings. The broker expects home improvement and furnishing retail stocks, namely GLOBAL, DOHOME, and HMPRO, as well as CRC, to show the strongest recovery, while CPN, CPALL, and COM7 continue to grow well on successful business strategies. For the building materials and home furnishing retail group, the securities firm estimates EPS will grow 37 percent in the second quarter of 2026, after earnings contracted continuously during 2023 to 2025, supported by better margins, a narrowing decline in same-store sales growth, and favorable product pricing from inflation. GLOBAL is seen as the standout, with earnings expected to grow 84 percent, driven by a higher proportion of house-brand products, cost control, and favorable pricing. CRC is expected to post 36 percent earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026, thanks to business strategy adjustments that support both same-store sales and margins, as well as lower marketing and interest expenses. Meanwhile, CPN is forecast to grow earnings by 15 percent, CPALL by 7 percent, COM7 by 30 percent, and MOSHI by 19 percent, with these companies seen as continuing to gain market share and expand margins. On the other hand, CPAXT is estimated to see earnings fall a further 17 percent due to weak same-store sales and margin compression from consumers trading down to lower-priced goods. For BJC, although earnings are expected to rise 12 percent from the acquisition of a wholesale business in Vietnam, the core BigC business remains weak with negative same-store sales growth. MRDIY is forecast to grow earnings by only 13 percent, below expectations, despite rapid store expansion. TTB Wealth Securities says the trend for the second half of 2026 will strengthen as the economy improves, maintaining a positive bias on building materials and CRC, and selecting CPN, GLOBAL, and CRC as top picks in the retail sector. For recommendations and target prices, stocks rated BUY are CPN with a target price of 75 baht, GLOBAL at 9 baht, CRC at 31 baht, CPALL at 62 baht, COM7 at 34 baht, DOHOME at 4.50 baht, HMPRO at 9.50 baht, MOSHI at 50 baht, and MRDIYT at 12.20 baht. CPAXT is rated HOLD with a target price of 14 baht, and BJC is rated SELL with a target price of 12.50 baht.

Bualuang Securities revealed that net profits for the second quarter of 2069 for stocks under its coverage came in 5.6% above market expectations, with 48% of stocks beating estimates compared to a five-year average of 37%. Standout performers were led by SCC, up 41% from its petrochemical business, SCGP up 20% from packaging and recycling, KKP up 18% from non-interest income, and TU up 10.9% from seafood demand. Meanwhile, DELTA missed profit forecasts by 31% due to supply chain issues. The research team also noted positive signals from IT retail sales at COM7 and ADVICE, which grew 10% and 17% year-on-year in July. In the lifestyle segment, MOSHI saw same-store sales rise 9% on the squishy toy trend. Tourism continued to recover, with foreign arrivals in July reaching 2.5 million, and ERW's revenue per available room expected to grow both year-on-year and month-on-month. Export demand for food and pet food remained strong, with TU projecting 5-6% growth and ITC projecting 10% growth. The investment strategy therefore focuses on COM7, ADVICE, MOSHI, CPALL, ERW, TU, and ITC.

Krungsri Securities forecasts Thai stock market profits for the second quarter of 2026 at 250 to 280 billion baht, down 15 to 24 percent from a year earlier and down 19 to 26 percent from the previous quarter. The refinery group saw volatile earnings on the downside, while the industrial goods, ICT, and power sectors are expected to post profit growth. The research team recommends a speculative strategy on stocks whose results will stand out or have passed their trough. Stocks expected to show Q2 profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter include PTTEP, SCC, SCGP, ADVANC, TRUE, BH, IVL, THANI, TNP, MOSHI, BA, AP, INSET, and ADVICE. Stocks for which Q2 is likely the year's low point and earnings will accelerate in the second half of 2026 include KTB, KBANK, AOT, BDMS, EGCO, ICHI, THAI, and TFG. The top picks are ADVANC, SCC, IVL, BH, KBANK, AOT, and ICHI.

Bualuang Securities expects the SET Index in August to move in a range of 1,600 to 1,700 points, supported by a broad-based earnings recovery, reflected in SET EPS being revised up by 4.2 percent in July and 6.3 percent year-to-date. Foreign investors bought a net 49 billion baht of Thai stocks in July and 76 billion baht year-to-date. Bualuang Securities recommends a Defensive Yield Core strategy combined with Satellite Alpha through four main themes. The first theme is Thailand Power Infrastructure Cycle, focusing on investment in transmission systems and renewable energy driven by data center electricity demand in the Eastern Economic Corridor reaching 26,045 megawatts. The government is preparing to invest 31 billion baht to expand the transmission system and plans to use remaining loan funds of around 200 billion baht to support solar rooftop and smart grid projects, benefiting stocks such as GULF and GUNKUL. The second theme is Higher for Longer Defensive-Dividend Rotation, focusing on high-dividend stocks amid high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, especially in the communications sector where earnings are still growing. ADVANC's second-quarter 2026 profit is expected to rise 24 percent year-on-year, and TRUE's by 48 percent year-on-year. The third theme is Policy-driven Tourism Recovery, focusing on the tourism sector which is expected to have passed its earnings trough in the second quarter of 2026, supported by government measures worth 1.75 billion baht, benefiting stocks such as ERW. The fourth theme is Selective Consumption Recovery, focusing on IT retail and beverage sectors that are still growing, with COM7 sales up 8 to 10 percent year-on-year, ADVICE up 13 to 15 percent year-on-year, and MOSHI expecting same-store sales growth of 4 percent, benefiting stocks such as CBG.

Several brokers view MOSHI as the standout in the retail sector. Maybank Securities forecasts second-quarter 2026 profit at 154 million baht, up 15% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth of 3.5%, the highest in the group. KGI Securities and DBS Vickers Securities emphasize recovering consumer confidence and ongoing branch expansion plans. In the hotel sector, ERW is expected to post a 25% year-on-year profit increase in the second quarter of 2026, supported by short-haul tourists and HOP INN. CENTEL is projected to earn 120 million baht, up 15% year-on-year, and is benefiting from positive sentiment around year-end domestic events. For large-cap stocks, PTT is seen as having its core business returning to a recovery cycle. Krungsri Securities expects normalized profit in 2026 to grow 66%, with the stock trading at a low price-to-book value of just 0.95 times. TRUE is forecast to achieve a new record high for second-quarter 2026 profit, reaching 6.8 billion baht, a 232% year-on-year surge, driven by higher margins and reduced competition. In logistics, SJWD is expected to report normalized second-quarter 2026 profit of 337 million baht, up 18% year-on-year, the highest in five quarters. UOB Kay Hian has upgraded BJC to a buy recommendation, citing an improving utilization outlook for its glass bottle production. Additionally, AIRA Securities notes that GANFENG23, which references Ganfeng Lithium Group, one of the world's largest lithium producers, has a forward price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 of just 7.8 times, well below its five-year historical average of 14.4 times, with earnings expected to recover as lithium carbonate prices rise to 160,000 yuan per ton.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited stated that the overall retail sector in 2026 will slow in line with purchasing power, with the modern retail market expected to grow only 1.5 to 2.5 percent, down from 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2025, and average same-store sales for the group are expected to be flat. However, the general merchandise, home improvement, and lifestyle segments still have room to expand branches and gain market share from small retailers, with same-store sales growth forecast at 3 percent for MOSHI, 2 percent for CPALL, and 1 percent for MRDIYT. Meanwhile, big-ticket items and hypermarkets are under pressure, with CRC's same-store sales seen flat, while HMPRO and GLOBAL are expected to decline 1 percent. The research team forecasts core profit for the group in 2026 to 2027 to grow at an average of 7 percent per year, but growth will be concentrated, with MOSHI and MRDIYT standing out at 18 percent and 17 percent per year respectively, driven by aggressive store opening plans relative to their current base. CRC continues to grow, and excluding the 691 million baht profit from Rinascente sold in the fourth quarter of 2025, profit from continuing operations would grow 11 percent per year. The investment strategy focuses on stock picking rather than buying the whole sector, with a market-weight allocation, and recommends MOSHI, MRDIYT, and CRC as top picks.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand index opened at 1,656.19 points, up 10.19 points or 0.62 percent. CGSI estimates the SET Index's trading range at 1,635 to 1,650 points and is approaching a test of the key resistance level at 1,650 points amid concerns over tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, investors are watching earnings reports from major technology companies this week, including Alphabet and Intel. For stock recommendations, CGSI recommends RATCH, citing that the renewal of the RG contract until 2034 and the full consolidation of HKP starting from the fourth quarter of 2025 will enhance earnings visibility. It has raised net profit estimates by 22 percent for 2026, 37 percent for 2027, and 24 percent for 2028, and upgraded the recommendation to buy, with a profit target of 39.00 baht and a stop-loss at 37.50 baht. As for MOSHI, it expects second-quarter 2026 net profit to rise 16 percent year-on-year, with efficient product management and a higher proportion of imported goods supporting sales growth and maintaining margins in the second half of 2026, with a profit target of 41.00 baht and a stop-loss at 38.00 baht.

Land and Houses Securities has raised its profit forecast for MOSHI for 2026 by about 5% to 786 million baht from 750 million baht, while maintaining a buy recommendation with a new target price of 52.50 baht. It expects second-quarter 2026 profit at 161 million baht, growing 19.9% year-on-year but down 15.6% quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors. Sales are still expanding 17.2% year-on-year, supported by same-store sales growth of 4% and the addition of 11 new branches to reach 217 branches. Gross margin is expected to be stable near the previous quarter's 56.2%, helped by a product mix shift toward imports from China. Selling and administrative expenses to sales are expected to rise to 34.2% due to marketing expenses. The second-half trend remains positive, with same-store sales in July so far still positive at around 7%, and costs have not been affected by higher energy prices as the company has sufficient inventory through August.