Consumer Staples

Target Corporation is raising capital investments to strengthen its store network, supply chain and technology capabilities, expecting capital expenditures of approximately $5 billion in fiscal 2026. Through the first half, the retailer deployed about $2.4 billion in capital expenditures, up nearly 30% from a year ago, with spending directed toward new stores, full-store remodels and technology upgrades. Target opened 17 new stores in the second quarter, bringing the first-half total to 24, and had more than 100 full-store remodels underway, moving toward roughly 130 for the year, as stores handle more than 95% of the company's sales. The company is modernizing its technology foundation and has partnered with OpenAI, Google Gemini and other leading platforms as it explores agentic commerce, saying digital traffic sourced from external AI platforms is growing more than 3.5 times the industry rate versus a year ago. Target is also investing in Proxima, a digital twin of its middle-mile inventory positioning system, and said it fulfilled nearly 30% more same-day and next-day units in the second quarter than a year earlier. Separately, Walmart raised its fiscal 2027 capital expenditure outlook to about 4% of net sales from roughly 3.5% earlier, while Dollar General expects fiscal 2026 capital expenditures of $1.4-$1.5 billion and plans about 4,730 real-estate projects during the year.

Costco Wholesale Corporation lowered prices across several everyday Kirkland Signature items in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, reinforcing its private label as a member-value lever. Management said Kirkland Signature typically offers savings of at least 15%-20% versus national-brand equivalents while maintaining equal or better quality. KS Walnuts were reduced to $9.99 from $13.79, Colombian Whole Bean Coffee to $19.99 from $21.99, Dry Facial Towels to $18.99 from $19.99 and Coarse Black Pepper to $5.99 from $6.99. The value push was supported by tariff refunds: Costco received $184 million in the quarter, including $174 million in refunds and $10 million in interest, and management said it intends to reinvest the majority of additional tariff-refund dollars to enhance member value. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco's current fiscal-year sales and earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 8.3% and 11.8%, respectively, and the estimate for current fiscal-year earnings has increased by 36 cents to $22.87 per share over the past 30 days.

Archer Daniels Midland Company's Ag Services business stands to gain from continued Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, which would support grain merchandising, origination and transportation volumes. ADM's second-quarter 2026 Ag Services operating profit surged 159% year over year, helped by strong commercial execution and the return of its Barcarena, Brazil, export terminal to full operations. Management said China is well underway in fulfilling its commitment to purchase 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans in 2026 and has been buying roughly 1 million tons per week, a contributor to the company's 2026 outlook. ADM expects Ag Services results in the third quarter to be slightly lower than the second quarter, with fourth-quarter performance depending partly on the pace of U.S. exports and whether additional corn and sorghum programs develop alongside soybean shipments. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ADM's 2026 and 2027 earnings per share indicates year-over-year growth of 59.2% and 3.9%, respectively, and the stock carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Coca-Cola is guiding to about 5% organic revenue growth for 2026, with comparable currency-neutral EPS growth of 7%-8% excluding acquisitions and divestitures and comparable EPS projected to rise 9%-10%. In the second quarter, organic revenues rose 6% and unit case volume advanced 5%, while comparable gross and operating margins expanded about 120 and 90 basis points, respectively; management noted that on a two-year basis volume growth was 2%. The company expects volume and price/mix to remain more in tandem through 2026, using packaging and price-point architecture in North America to address pressured lower-income consumers while treating India and China as longer-term investment opportunities. Longer term, management continues to target organic revenue growth of 4%-6%, with an ambition to perform toward the upper end of that range on a sustained basis, though comparisons become tougher in the second half and the fourth quarter includes six fewer days year over year. Coca-Cola shares have risen 3.3% in the past three months against the industry's decline of 3.8%, and the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24.69X versus the industry's 18.49X. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Coca-Cola's 2026 and 2027 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 9.7% and 7.1%, respectively, with estimates for both years stable over the past seven days.

Mission Produce's Marketing and Distribution segment posted third-quarter fiscal 2026 sales of $414.3 million, up from $344.1 million a year earlier, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $24.7 million from $20 million. The company sold roughly 253 million pounds of avocados in the quarter, up 38% year over year, lifted by the Calavo acquisition and growth in its legacy business, though lower average selling prices partly offset the gain. A more balanced sourcing mix across Mexico, California and Peru helped per-unit margins recover sequentially from the fiscal second quarter, and Mission Produce increased its estimated U.S. retail market share by about 60 basis points year to date. Management said added packing capacity in Mexico and California and complementary customer relationships from the Calavo combination could drive meaningful market-share gains between 2027 and 2030. The Zacks Consensus Estimate points to a 17.7% year-over-year decline in AVO's fiscal 2026 earnings and 29.2% growth in fiscal 2027, with the stock carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Keurig Dr Pepper unveiled a first look at its 2027 beverage innovation pipeline ahead of the 2026 National Association of Convenience Stores Show, spanning new flavors, an expanded energy lineup and refreshed iconic brands. On the carbonated soft drink side, the company will launch Dr Pepper Ice Cream Float nationwide as a permanent offering in cans and 20 oz. bottles beginning February 2027, with fountain and frozen formats arriving mid-year, alongside a limited-time 7UP Miami Vice in June 2027, the holiday return of 7UP Shirley Temple with a new 20 oz. package, and Canada Dry Raspberry Lemonade in Spring 2027. In energy, KDP will distribute more than 25 new items across its energy brand portfolio in 2027, including permanent versions of GHOST Energy x 7UP and GHOST Energy x A&W, the January launch of GHOST Energy Sour Strips Appleberry, and a limited-time GHOST Energy Blueberry Cream, while Bloom Energy adds Strawberry Shortie in October 2026 and Cotton Candy and Lemon Freezie in January 2027, and C4 Energy expands its zero-sugar Cereal's Most Wanted lineup with Cocoa Loco and new 8.4-ounce mini cans. GHOST is now a $1 billion brand at retail, and KDP said innovation and limited-time offerings drive nearly three-quarters of energy category growth. The company is also investing in iconic brands, following 7UP's most significant brand evolution in more than 15 years with a lime-forward formula and refreshed packaging, while Sunkist will introduce updated graphics and a refreshed recipe in Q1 2027. Attendees at the 2026 NACS Show in Las Vegas will get an exclusive preview of upcoming innovations across KDP's owned and partner brands, including Snapple, Electrolit, Polar, La Colombe and Vita Coco.

Nippon Ham announced on the 5th that it has reduced the per-bag content of its flagship sausage product Schau Essen by 10 grams, from 117 grams to 107 grams. With the price unchanged, this amounts to an effective price increase. The change took effect with deliveries from the 1st. The company reviewed the content volume as raw material, labor, and energy costs continue to rise. The reference retail price for the two-bag pack remains 702 yen, and the company said it increased the weight of each individual sausage to boost customer satisfaction.

PTC agreed to be acquired by Schneider Electric for $205 per share, valuing the software company's equity at more than $22 billion, with the transaction expected to close by the third quarter of 2027. PTC shares surged 36% premarket on the news. Brazilian stocks rallied after right-wing presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro edged out incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva by around 2 percentage points in Sunday's election, sending the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF up 12% and U.S.-listed shares of Itau Unibanco and Banco Bradesco up more than 13% each. Wells Fargo gained 1% after a Morgan Stanley upgrade to overweight from equal weight, while DraftKings popped over 5% on a Bank of America upgrade to buy from neutral, with analyst Julie Hoover expecting prediction markets to generate $400 million in fees for 2027 and between $200 to $400 million in market making. Estee Lauder rose 2.8% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight, citing its growth and earnings profile over the next several years.

Carlsberg A/S agreed to acquire two PepsiCo bottling businesses from Revery, adding Iberia Refreshments in Georgia and JI Pepsi Cola Bottler Armenia to its non-alcoholic beverage operations. Financial terms for the two deals were not disclosed. Once completed, Carlsberg will take responsibility for producing, selling, and distributing PepsiCo's soft drink portfolio in both countries, lifting the number of markets covered by Carlsberg's PepsiCo bottling arrangements to 17. Carlsberg plans to combine Georgia and Armenia with Azerbaijan, where it has separately agreed to become PepsiCo's bottler, into a South Caucasus operating cluster intended to support a wider beverage portfolio and shared production, sales, and distribution. PepsiCo SVP and GM of Internal Beverages Europe Natalia Filippociants said the expanded partnership is expected to help the company unlock the next phase of growth in the two markets.

Shares of Exotic Food Public Company Limited, or XO, closed at 19.00 baht, up 1.10 baht or 6.15%, on trading value of 24.68 million baht, after Chief Executive Officer Jittiporn Chantrat revealed that the global seasoning sauce market continues to expand. The global hot sauce market was worth approximately 120 billion baht in 2025 and is expected to grow at an average of 7.7-7.8% per year, reaching about 200 billion baht in 2032. Meanwhile, the sriracha sauce market was valued at approximately 19.3 billion baht in 2025 and is expected to rise to more than 30 billion baht in 2032. XO holds roughly 7.9% of the global sriracha sauce market. The company targets revenue growth of no less than 10% in 2026 from about 2.15 billion baht in 2025, which would amount to nearly 2.4 billion baht. It is also proceeding with investment in a new factory worth approximately 1.3 billion baht, funded about 70% by loans from financial institutions and about 30% by company cash. The plant is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2028, with exports from the new factory beginning in the third quarter of 2028. Brokerage Globlex Securities raised its 2026 revenue forecast for XO to 2.37 billion baht from 2.26 billion baht, a 10% increase from the previous year. It expects gross profit margin of 47%, excluding the impact of inventory write-downs, and maintains its 2026 net profit forecast at 535 million baht, up 6% from the previous year. It also raised its target price to 19.20 baht from 15.60 baht and upgraded its recommendation from hold to speculative buy.

Analysts from 5 securities firms recommend "buying" shares of Thai Union Group (TU) with target prices in the range of 13.90 - 16 baht, expecting third-quarter profit of 1.309 - 1.420 billion baht, with strong growth, and believe that the surge in tuna costs has already passed its peak, with long-term positive factors beginning to provide support. Yuanta Securities raised its 2026 - 2027 profit forecasts by 18% and 4% respectively, and set a new target price of 16.00 baht, an upside gain of 29%, expecting normal profit in 3Q26 of 1.420 billion baht, up 4.3% QoQ and 17.4% YoY, on revenue of 35.882 billion baht. Krungsri Securities maintained its Buy recommendation with a target price of 15.50 baht, expecting normal profit in 3Q26F of about 1.349 billion baht and normal profit forecasts for 2026-2027F of 5.135 billion baht and 5.970 billion baht respectively. Maybank Securities recommends buying with a target price of 14.50 baht, expecting net profit in 3Q69 of 1.3 billion baht, with results scheduled for reporting on 2 November. Pi Securities assesses fair value at 15.4 baht, expecting normal profit in 3Q26 of 1.400 billion baht, and states that flooding has not affected the group's production in any way. Meanwhile, Trinity Securities gives a target price of 13.90 baht, expecting profit in 3Q69 of 1.309 billion baht, up 4% QoQ and flat YoY, with gross margin expected at 20.6%, and maintains its 2026 profit forecast at 4.7 billion baht.

Pluk Phak Praw Rak Mae Public Company Limited, known as OKJ, the owner of the healthy restaurant brand Ohkajhu, has announced a major business transformation, or Big Revamp, restructuring its menus, portion sizes, pricing, and in-store experience on the largest scale in 13 years, since opening its first branch in Chiang Mai province in 2013. Consumers will experience the new format simultaneously at every branch nationwide starting October 5. The overhaul covers four areas: adding new menu items and smaller size options along with more Side Dish and Add-on choices; upgrading service and the Customer Journey; moving to All-Inclusive pricing that includes VAT with no service charge; and maintaining the quality of ingredients from organic farms in Chiang Mai province under the Farm-to-Table concept. Chief Executive Officer Chalakorn Ekachaiyapattanakul said the changes reflect that customer voices truly matter to the company, amid a Thai restaurant market valued at more than 572 billion baht in 2025 and growing 4.8% from the previous year, according to data from the Department of Business Development, Ministry of Commerce. Meanwhile, OKJ Group has also launched the OKJ TOGETHER membership system linking five brands under the group: Ohkajhu, Oh Juice, Jo Wings, Ohkajhu Wrap & Roll, and Grill & Ground, which together have more than 85 branches nationwide as of September 2026, and are expected to exceed 90 branches across all brands by the end of this year. OKJ currently has more than 452,000 members in total and has revised its points accumulation terms to be six times more rewarding and faster, requiring spending of just 80 baht to immediately receive 1 point and 1 star, down from the previous requirement of 500 baht per 1 point.

APCO has launched a new product, BIM AD, for brain health care, building on its expertise in stem cells and immune-boosting innovation derived from mangosteen extract, as it moves into the preventive wellness market. Professor Dr. Picheth Viriyachitra, Chief Executive Officer of Asian Phytocuticals Public Company Limited, or APCO, said on 5 October 2026 that the company plans to publish the research behind this innovation in an international academic journal within October. On marketing plans, the company is focusing mainly on the domestic market, targeting consumers aged 40 and over, and using the BIM Advisor model as a channel to expand its customer base alongside health education. APCO expects the launch of BIM AD to help broaden its customer base in the brain health segment and drive sales growth in the second half of this year.

KAMART, or Carmart Public Company Limited, informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand that its board of directors, at a meeting on October 2, 2026, approved a share buyback program for financial management with a maximum value of no more than 218 million baht. The number of shares to be repurchased will not exceed 30 million shares, representing no more than 2.34% of all issued and paid-up shares. The buyback will be carried out through automatic matching via the exchange's trading system from October 6, 2026 to April 5, 2027, or within six months. For the pricing criteria, the company will take the average share price over the past 30 trading days into consideration, and the buyback price must not exceed 115% of the average closing price over the five trading days preceding the transaction date. The average share price over the past 30 trading days, based on data disclosed by the company, stands at 6.86 baht per share. KAMART stated that the buyback aims to keep the market moving reasonably and to manage the company's liquidity efficiently. After the buyback, shareholders will benefit from higher return on equity, or ROE, and higher earnings per share, or EPS, while the number of shares traded on the exchange will decrease. On its financial position, the company has retained earnings of 817.19 million baht, while liabilities due within six months from the start of the buyback stand at 761 million baht. As of October 1, 2026, net cash flow from operating activities was 728 million baht. The company also expects about 943 million baht in cash flow from operations in the six months after the third quarter of 2026, and therefore assesses that it has sufficient liquidity to repay its debts and carry out the buyback program.

Tisco Securities released an analysis of retail sector stocks, noting that same-store sales growth, or SSSG, improved by 0.9% in September, recovering from a contraction of 1.5% in July and 0.4% in August, driven by stockpiling of goods related to the flood situation as well as a recovery in fundamentals. It expects SSSG at 7-Eleven under CPALL to come in at positive 3%, while Makro under CPAXT is seen at positive 1.5% and Big C under BJC at positive 2%. Overall, SSSG in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to decline 0.3% under pressure from the high base effect of previous government economic stimulus measures, but strong operating results in September should partially offset the weakness in July and August. Tisco's research team recommends BJC, expecting September SSSG to be positive at 2% on the benefit of flood-related stockpiling and store improvements, as well as the broad-based recovery that began to emerge in August. BJC's stores showed significantly better development across all product categories, and SSSG is expected to accelerate again once the impact of government stimulus spending fades and customer numbers return to normal in December 2026. CPALL, meanwhile, is expected to report September SSSG in positive low- to mid-single-digit territory, improving from the previous two months, with 7-Eleven benefiting from consumer stockpiling in late September amid heavy rain and flood risk. It also received support from extended alcohol sales hours and an increase in Chinese tourist numbers, while the impact of branch closures due to flooding remained limited.

Shares of Plook Phak Pro Rak Mae Public Company Limited, or OKJ, climbed 11.18% to 3.78 baht at 10:57 a.m. on October 5, 2026, on trading value of 41.93 million baht, after Chief Executive Officer Chalakorn Ekachaiyapattanakul said the company is pressing ahead with a major revamp of its restaurant business under the Ookajuu brand, its biggest in 13 years since opening its first branch in Chiang Mai province in 2013. The revamp began across all branches nationwide on October 5, 2026, under the concept Same Roots New Moves, spanning new menu items and smaller portion sizes, side dishes and add-ons, upgraded service and in-store experience, and an all-inclusive pricing structure that includes value-added tax and carries no service charge. On targets, the company aims to lift repeat-visit rates and customer lifetime value, and is developing the OKJ TOGETHER membership system linking five brands in the group: Ookajuu, Oh Juus, Jo Wings, Ookajuu Wrap & Roll, and Grill & Ground, under the concept of one phone number equals one member. As of the end of September 2026, the OKJ group had more than 85 restaurants nationwide and expects to expand to more than 90 branches by the end of 2026. Membership in the system stands at more than 452,000, and the points accrual terms have been revised from 500 baht spent per one point to one point and one star for every 80 baht spent.

OKJ shares jumped 11.76% to 3.80 baht, up 0.40 baht, on trading value of 38.21 million baht, after the company announced its largest business transformation in 13 years, since opening its first branch in Chiang Mai province in 2013. Chalakorn Ekchaipattanakul, Chief Executive Officer of Plook Phak Pro Rak Mae Public Company Limited, said the overhaul covers menu structure, portion sizes, pricing and the in-store experience, in response to consumer behaviour that increasingly emphasises value and variety. Customers will experience the new format simultaneously at every branch nationwide from 5 October 2026 onwards. Pricing will be all-inclusive, covering VAT with no service charge, alongside more small-size options and additional side dishes. This comes as the Thai restaurant market was valued at more than 572 billion baht in 2025, growing 4.8% from the previous year, according to data from the Department of Business Development, Ministry of Commerce. Meanwhile, OKJ Group also launched its OKJ TOGETHER-ONE MEMBERSHIP. ALL OUR BRANDS system, linking all five brands in the group: Ohkajhu, Oh Juice, Jo Wings, Ohkajhu Wrap & Roll, and Grill & Ground, which together have more than 85 branches nationwide as of the end of September 2026 and are expected to exceed 90 branches by the end of this year. OKJ currently has more than 452,000 members in total, and has revised its points-accumulation terms to be six times more rewarding and faster, from the previous requirement of 500 baht spent per one point to spending just 80 baht to receive one point plus one star immediately.

Karmart Public Company Limited, or KAMART, announced that its Board of Directors, at its 5/2569 meeting held on 2 October 2569, approved a share buyback programme for financial management purposes with a maximum value of no more than 218 million baht. The company will buy back no more than 30 million shares, or no more than 2.34% of its total issued and paid-up shares. The buyback will be carried out through the Stock Exchange of Thailand's trading system using the Automatic Order Matching method. The buyback period runs from 6 October 2569 to 5 April 2570.

Shares of Karmart Public Company Limited, or KAMART, jumped sharply by 8.27% after the company's board approved a share buyback program for financial management purposes. As of 11:14 a.m. on October 5, 2026, the price stood at 7.20 baht, up 0.55 baht, or 8.27%, having hit an intraday high of 7.35 baht and a low of 6.95 baht, with trading value of approximately 23.36 million baht. The board resolved on October 2, 2026, to approve a buyback of no more than 30 million shares through trading on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, representing 2.34% of paid-up shares, with a maximum buyback value of 218 million baht. The program will run from October 6, 2026, to April 5, 2027. The buyback is intended for the company's financial management and has helped fuel interest in KAMART shares during this morning's trading session.

Several brokers have issued analyses of Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, or TU, expecting net profit in the third quarter of 2026 to hold steady from the same period a year earlier but rise slightly from the previous quarter. The fourth-quarter outlook is expected to soften on seasonal factors and high tuna prices, but full-year 2026 profit is still seen growing and continuing into next year, prompting a Buy recommendation along with target price estimates for 2027. Trinity Securities expects third-quarter net profit of 1.309 billion baht, up 4% quarter on quarter and steady year on year, maintaining its full-year 2026 profit forecast at 4.7 billion baht, up 2% year on year, with a Buy recommendation and a target price of 13.90 baht. Phillip Securities (Thailand) expects third-quarter profit of 1.252 billion baht, down 4.9% year on year and 1.0% quarter on quarter, on SG&A expenses, sea freight costs, marketing expenses, special M&A expenses and foreign exchange losses, maintaining its full-year 2026 profit forecast at 4.7 billion baht, with a Buy recommendation and a 2027 target price of 15.30 baht. Finansia Syrus Securities expects third-quarter net profit of 1.29 billion baht, up 2.5% quarter on quarter and steady year on year, with the September tuna price at 2,275 US dollars per tonne, up 8.3% quarter on quarter and 42.2% year on year, the highest in nine years, maintaining its full-year 2026 profit forecast at 4.78 billion baht, up 3.7% year on year, and 2027 at 5.04 billion baht, up 5.4%, with a Buy recommendation and a 2027 target price of 14.80 baht. It sees ITC's M&A deal likely to materialize in the fourth quarter of 2026, while Pi Securities recommends Buy with a target price of 15.40 baht, expecting third-quarter net profit of 1.306 billion baht, up 0.1% year on year and 3% quarter on quarter; excluding special items, normal profit would be 1.406 billion baht, up 14% year on year and 3% quarter on quarter, maintaining full-year 2026 profit at 4.854 billion baht.

Asian Phytocuticals Public Company Limited, or APCO, has launched BIM AD, a new product for brain health care, building on its expertise in immunotherapy from mangosteen extract to expand its portfolio in the Brain Health segment and move into the preventive wellness market. Professor Dr. Pichet Wiriyachitra, Chief Executive Officer, said BIM AD was developed by combining knowledge of stem cells and immunotherapy innovation through the concept of stimulating stem cells involved in the body's tissue creation and repair processes, aiming to support brain health care and long-term internal organ recovery. The company plans to publish the research on this innovation in an international academic journal within October. For its marketing plan, the company will focus mainly on the domestic market, targeting consumers aged 40 and over, and will use the BIM Advisor model as a channel to expand its customer base alongside health care education. Professor Dr. Pichet said APCO is a leader in stem cell care and recovery using natural innovations, and he believes the launch of BIM AD will help expand its customer base in the Brain Health segment and drive sales growth in the second half of this year.

Shares of Karmart Public Company Limited, or KAMART, climbed 8.27% after the company's board approved a share buyback program for financial management. At 10:35 a.m., the stock stood at 7.20 baht, up 0.55 baht, with a high of 7.35 baht and a low of 6.95 baht, on trading value of 21.70 million baht. The buyback sets a maximum amount to be determined by management, but no more than 30 million shares, representing no more than 2.34% of all issued and sold shares. The buyback period runs from October 6, 2026 to April 5, 2027.

OKJ Public Company Limited, known as Pluk Phak Because I Love Mom, the owner of the healthy restaurant brand Ohkajhu, has announced the most significant business transformation in its 13-year history since opening its first branch in Chiang Mai province in 2013. The overhaul covers menu structure, portion sizes, prices, and an entirely new in-store experience. Consumers will experience the new format simultaneously at all branches nationwide starting October 5. Chief Executive Officer Chalakorn Ekachaipattanakul said the changes respond to shifting customer voices regarding value, variety, and flexibility, with new menu items and small-size options added, along with all-inclusive pricing that includes VAT and no service charge. The revamp comes as Thailand's restaurant market is valued at more than 572 billion baht in 2025, growing 4.8% from the previous year, according to data from the Department of Business Development, Ministry of Commerce. Meanwhile, OKJ Group has also launched the OKJ TOGETHER membership system linking five brands under the group: Ohkajhu, Oh Juice, Jo Wings, Ohkajhu Wrap & Roll, and Grill & Ground, which together have more than 85 branches nationwide as of September 2026, with expectations of surpassing 90 branches across all brands by the end of this year. OKJ currently has more than 452,000 members in total and has revised its point-accumulation terms to be six times more rewarding and faster, requiring spending of just 80 baht to immediately receive 1 point and 1 star, compared with the previous requirement of 500 baht per point.

Yuanta Securities estimates that the third-quarter 2026 normalized profit of Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, or TU, will come in at 1.42 billion baht, up 4.3% from the previous quarter and up 17.4% from a year earlier. Revenue is expected at 35.882 billion baht, growing 6.0% from the previous quarter and 4.0% from a year earlier, driven by the canned food and pet food businesses. The gross profit margin is expected at 20.7%, up from 19.0% in the third quarter of 2025, while net profit is forecast at 1.305 billion baht. The price of tuna rose in September to 2,200 to 2,300 US dollars per ton, after hitting a record high of 2,100 US dollars per ton in August, the first time the price exceeded 2,000 US dollars per ton, bringing the third-quarter average to about 2,075 US dollars per ton, up 17.3% from the previous quarter and up 33.9% from a year earlier. The research team therefore raised its 2026 and 2027 profit forecasts by 18% and 4% respectively, and set a new target price of 16.00 baht, based on 12.5 times earnings, maintaining a buy recommendation with 29% upside. It also expects a second-half dividend of 0.40 baht, representing a 3% return.

Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, or KKPS, maintains a Buy rating on Thai Union Group, or TU, with a target price of 16.00 baht versus the current price of 12.40 baht, assessing that third-quarter 2026 results remain strong on growing sales and high gross margins. The research team expects TU to post net profit of 1.27 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, down 2.4% from the same period a year earlier but up 0.7% from the previous quarter, bringing nine-month accumulated profit to 77% of the full-year 2026 net profit estimate. Sales are expected to grow in line with the company's target of 4-6% this year, and the gross margin is forecast at 20.3%, in line with management's target of more than 20% and the full-year target range of 19.5-20.5%, supported by a better product mix, especially the pet food business. The expense-to-sales ratio is expected at about 14.9% on higher freight rates and one-time financial advisory fees, which are expected to decline in the fourth quarter of 2026. On cost risk, higher tuna prices still have a limited effect in the third quarter of 2026 because the company holds about two months of raw material inventory, and tuna costs are expected to gradually be reflected in the fourth quarter of 2026 before easing after the fishing gear ban period ends. The research team views TU's core business, excluding items related to other businesses, as trading at a 2027 P/E of less than 3 times, with an estimated dividend yield of about 6%.

Finansia Syrus Securities said in an analysis today that it expects Thai Union Group to post net profit of approximately 1.29 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 2.5% from the previous quarter and flat compared with the same period last year. Earnings remain resilient despite pressure from rising expenses, supported by sales in the Ambient and Pet Food businesses, which continue to grow well. Meanwhile, if tuna prices decline in October, it would ease cost pressure and be a positive factor for margins in the next quarter. Finansia also maintained its forecast for TU's 2026 profit to grow 3.7% from last year, and shifted to a 2027 target price of 14.80 baht, seeing further upside from the merger and acquisition deal of i-Tail Corporation as well as the group's operational efficiency improvement plans. It therefore maintained its Buy recommendation.

Asia Plus Securities estimates that TU's net profit for the third quarter of 2026 will be 1.3 billion baht, and excluding foreign exchange losses, normal profit will be 1.4 billion baht, up 16% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter. The result is supported by sales that continue to grow in line with targets and margins that remain at a high level, which helps offset pressure from rising selling and administrative expenses. The research team expects sales this quarter of 36 billion baht, up 4.3% year-on-year and 6.4% quarter-on-quarter, driven by growth in branded products and OEM business in the Ambient group, especially in the US and French markets. The PetCare business is supported by global brand customers in the US, while the Frozen business is expected to decline slightly year-on-year on weaker demand for frozen products, as is the Feed business. Gross margin is expected at 20.3%, improving from 19.0% in the third quarter of 2025 but down from 21.4% in the second quarter of 2026, as tuna costs begin to rise. If third-quarter 2026 profit meets expectations, net profit and normal profit for the first nine months of 2026 will represent 79% and 77% of full-year profit. The research team maintains its Buy recommendation with a 2027 target price of 13.90 baht, based on a PER of 12 times.

Adecoagro S.A. has redeemed all of its outstanding 6.000% Senior Notes due 2027, totaling US$234,923,000 in principal, at 100% of face value plus US$6.17 in accrued interest per US$1,000 of notes, with interest ceasing to accrue after the October 28, 2026 payoff. The early redemption removes Adecoagro's nearest bond maturity and reflects an emphasis on tightening its balance sheet and refining its liability profile. The move simplifies the company's debt stack and may modestly reduce balance sheet risk, though it does not change the near-term catalysts around sugar and ethanol profitability or the risk of margin pressure from volatile prices and weather. The redemption comes alongside Adecoagro's stronger 2026 results, with first half sales of US$929.69 million and net income of US$58.35 million turning around prior losses, and investors can weigh that improving profitability against the company's higher coupon 7.500% notes due 2032 and its recurring US$35 million dividend. Adecoagro's narrative projects $2.3 billion in revenue and $188.5 million in earnings by 2029, requiring 16.9% yearly revenue growth and a $196.8 million earnings increase from -$8.3 million today, while some of the lowest analysts already bake in about US$2.3 billion of revenue and US$210.9 million of earnings by 2029 yet still see more risk in the company's leverage reduction and energy projects than the redemption alone might suggest.