Highways & Railtracks

Krungsri Securities stated in an analysis that it maintains a positive view on Bangkok Expressway and Metro, or BEM, even though flooding in Bangkok and its vicinity has affected traffic and the Expressway Authority of Thailand has extended the toll waiver by another 2 days to September 28-29, 2026, from the original September 26-27, bringing the total toll waiver period to 4 days and covering the Chalerm Maha Nakhon Expressway, the Si Rat Expressway, the Prachim Ratthaya Expressway, and the Udon Ratthaya Expressway, all of which are managed by BEM. Discussions with BEM's management found that revenue potentially lost from the 4-day toll waiver will be compensated by the government, though the form of compensation, whether cash or another arrangement, is still under discussion, as is the timeline for disbursement. The analyst views the chance that BEM will not receive full government compensation as low, and based on a sensitivity analysis, if it were assumed that no compensation is received at all, the company would lose about 100 million baht in revenue, or roughly 2% of total revenue in the third quarter of 2026 and about 0.6% of total revenue for all of 2026. Meanwhile, rising subway passenger numbers during the floods are helping offset some toll revenue. The analyst therefore maintains the 2026 net profit forecast at 3.9 billion baht, up 3% from the previous year, and keeps a Buy recommendation with a target price of 8.80 baht per share, viewing the stock as still attractive on valuation grounds with the impact of the toll waiver measures remaining limited.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited said that BEM's four-day waiver of tolls on all expressways following flooding in Bangkok and its vicinity will hit BEM's profit in 3Q26, but the government will compensate the company for the lost revenue. The Expressway Authority of Thailand has extended the toll waiver by another two days, to September 28 and 29 from the original September 26-27, covering all eight expressways under the authority, including Chalerm Maha Nakhon Expressway, Si Rat Expressway, Prachim Ratthaya Expressway and Udon Ratthaya Expressway. The research team estimates that without government compensation, about 100 million baht in revenue would be lost, equal to 2% of total revenue in 3Q26, or 0.6% of total revenue for 2026F. The compensation format and disbursement timeline still need to be discussed with the government. Meanwhile, higher revenue from the underground electric train business during the floods will offset part of the lost toll revenue. The research team therefore maintains its 2026F net profit forecast at 3.9 billion baht, up 3% year on year, and keeps its Buy recommendation with a target price of 8.8 baht, viewing the current price as not yet reflecting fair value, including value from the Blue Line electric train extension project and the Orange Line electric train project.

Xinjiang Communications Construction announced that its board of directors has approved the proposal on signing and implementing a debt restructuring. Because the Qapqal County Government's original plan to offset the debt with state-owned agricultural land contracting rights could not be implemented due to policy adjustments, the two sides agreed that the county government will resume fulfilling its original debt of 249 million yuan to the company, to be repaid over ten years, with capital occupation interest calculated at an annual rate of 2.65 percent.

Dongguan Holdings announced that it plans to acquire a 65% stake in Dongguan Low-Altitude Economy Development Company held by Communications Investment Group for 6.0542 million yuan. After the transaction is completed, the low-altitude economy company will be included in the company's consolidated financial statements. This transaction constitutes a related-party transaction and has been approved by the board of directors.

BEM shares rose 3.82% to 6.80 baht at 11:04 a.m. after bondholders of Bangkok Expressway and Metro approved raising the ceiling on interest-bearing debt to equity from 2.5 times to 3.0 times, along with a 0.1% increase in the interest rate on existing bonds. The 22 bond tranches have a combined value of about 30 billion baht, and the rate increase represents additional cost of only about 30 million baht per year, or roughly 1% of estimated profit for 2026-2028. Kasikorn Securities said the higher debt ceiling adds flexibility to support new investment projects such as Double Deck and M9. It maintained a Buy rating with a target price of 10.31 baht and named the stock a Top Pick in the Ground Transportation group, citing strong second-half profit growth, upside from the MRT Purple Line South and Double Deck projects, and the 17-45 baht electric train fare policy. Meanwhile, Dao (Thailand) said third-quarter 2026 net profit is expected to expand year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter on lower interest and maintenance costs, with a catalyst from progress on the common ticket policy, which is expected to boost electric train passengers by more than 10% in 2027 and save about 100 million baht per year from bringing Purple Line maintenance work back in-house. It recommended Buy with a target price of 9.00 baht.

Asia Plus Securities stated that the Royal Gazette has published a Ministry of Transport announcement adjusting toll rates for the Western Expressway, or the Srirat-Wong Waen Outer Ring Expressway in Bangkok, effective from December 15, 2026, under the concession contract's condition of adjusting tolls every 5 years. The project's concession runs until December 15, 2042. Under the new rates, vehicles with no more than 4 wheels rise from 65 baht to 80 baht per trip, vehicles with more than 4 but no more than 10 wheels rise from 105 baht to 130 baht, and vehicles with more than 10 wheels rise from 150 baht to 185 baht. This is the second increase under the new concession framework, which stipulates an increase of 15 baht each time every 5 years, starting from 2021. This toll adjustment is a positive factor for BEM, since the Srirat-Wong Waen Outer Ring Expressway is a route where BEM recognizes 100% of toll revenue, unlike inner-city expressways where it receives only a 40% revenue share. Although this route accounts for only about 5-6% of total expressway traffic volume, it generates roughly 14-15% of expressway business revenue. It is estimated to add about 330-350 million baht per year in revenue for the company. However, the research team views that BEM is entering a transition period toward a new round of growth, driven by the launch of the Orange Line electric train in 2028, which will directly add passengers to the Blue Line network. Meanwhile, opportunities from the Double Deck expressway project and the Purple Line South train operating contract remain important value-adding factors in the next phase. It therefore maintains a Buy recommendation with a DCF-based fair value of 8.20 baht.

The Expressway Authority of Thailand, under the Ministry of Transport, has announced that it will adjust the toll rates on the Prachim Ratthaya Expressway, also known as the Si Rat–Outer Ring Road Expressway in Bangkok, effective from 15 December 2026 onward. This adjustment applies only to this particular Prachim Ratthaya Expressway route. The rate change follows the conditions of the investment concession contract, which stipulates that toll rates be adjusted every five years, with Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited, or BEM, as the concessionaire and the sole investor in the entire project. Under the new rates, four-wheel vehicles will pay 80 baht per vehicle, up from 65 baht; six- to ten-wheel vehicles will pay 130 baht per vehicle, up from 105 baht; and vehicles with more than ten wheels will pay 185 baht per vehicle, up from 150 baht. The Expressway Authority of Thailand is currently discussing the details with BEM and relevant agencies to finalize measures to ease the burden and reduce the impact on the public's expenses, and will announce the official details in advance before the toll increase takes effect.

The Expressway Authority of Thailand, under the Ministry of Transport, says it is in talks with Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited, or BEM, and related agencies to set out measures to assist the public and reduce the cost impact before toll rates rise on the Western Expressway, also known as the Sirat Expressway to the Bangkok Outer Ring Road, starting December 15, 2026. The adjustment follows the terms of the concession contract, which requires toll rates to be revised every five years, in a range of 15 to 35 baht. BEM holds the concession and has invested 100% in the entire project. Under the new rates, vehicles with no more than four wheels will rise from 65 baht to 80 baht per vehicle, an increase of 15 baht. Vehicles with more than four but no more than ten wheels will rise from 105 baht to 130 baht per vehicle, an increase of 25 baht. Vehicles with more than ten wheels will rise from 150 baht to 185 baht per vehicle, an increase of 35 baht. The adjustment covers only the Western Expressway, or the Sirat Expressway to the Bangkok Outer Ring Road. The Expressway Authority of Thailand will move quickly to finalize measures to ease the hardship and reduce the cost burden on road users, and will announce the details officially to the public in advance before the new toll rates take effect.

Krungsri Securities said in a research note that expressway and rail traffic volumes at Bangkok Expressway and Metro, or BEM, continued to recover in August 2026, in line with its profit forecast for 2026, which is expected to grow 3.4% from a year earlier. Average expressway traffic in August 2026 was 1.11 million trips per day, up 1.4% from the previous month and 0.7% from the same period a year earlier, rising for a fourth consecutive month since May 2026. Average rail passengers stood at 444,000 trips per day, up 4.2% from the previous month and 1% from the same period a year earlier, the second-highest level of the year after February 2026 at 474,700 trips per day, and up from a year earlier for a seventh consecutive month. For the first eight months of 2026, average expressway traffic was 1.1 million trips per day, up 0.8% from the same period a year earlier, while average rail passengers were 424,000 trips per day, up 2%. Krungsri Securities maintained its net profit forecast for BEM in 2026 at 3.91 billion baht, before expanding to 3.97 billion baht in 2027 and 4.07 billion baht in 2028. It kept its Buy rating and 2027 target price of 8.80 baht per share, against a closing price of 6.65 baht, implying roughly 32% upside. It views the recent share price correction as an investment opportunity and estimates that the Double Deck expressway project, if awarded to BEM, would add about 1 baht per share in value.

KGI Securities said the increase in tolls on the Chalong Rat Expressway, also known as the Si Rat - Outer Ring Road Expressway in Bangkok, which is adjusted every five years under the terms of the investment concession contract, takes effect from 15 December 2026. Four-wheel vehicles will pay 80 baht per vehicle, up from 65 baht, and six- to ten-wheel vehicles will pay 130 baht per vehicle, up from 105 baht. This is seen as slightly positive, given traffic volume on the expressway route of about 62,500 vehicles per month, or 5.5% of the 1.1 million vehicles using the expressway each month. The impact is expected to be about 3% of expressway revenue. The tolls will undergo a major contractual adjustment in 2029, rising from 50 baht to 60 baht for the city-bound routes and from 55 baht to 65 baht for Sector C. The years 2028 to 2031 are expected to be a golden era for BEM, driven by the full operation of the Orange Line and Purple Line electric train services and the increase in urban expressway prices. KGI maintains its buy recommendation with a target price of 8.40 baht.

Krungsri Securities said BEM reported its monthly ridership figures for August 2026, with average expressway traffic at 1.11 million trips per day, up 1.4% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, while average electric train passengers stood at 444,000 trips per day, up 4.2% month-on-month and 1.0% year-on-year, the second-highest level of the year after February's 474,700 trips per day. The research house maintained its profit growth estimate at 3.4% year-on-year for 2026F, assuming 0% expressway growth and 3% growth in electric train passengers, and noted that every 1% increase in expressway traffic would add another 1.2% to estimated 2026F profit. The research house kept its Buy recommendation and its previous target price of 8.8 baht, viewing the share price decline over the past two weeks as a buying opportunity, and said lower fare rates in the range of 17 to 45 baht would help unlock concerns about future concession buybacks for both the Blue Line and the Orange Line. It added that the double-deck expressway project is still awaiting approval, and if approved it would add another 1 baht of value to BEM.

Two brokerages have maintained their buy recommendations on BEM shares, with KGI Securities (Thailand) setting a sum-of-the-parts target price of 8.40 baht and Yuanta giving a fair value of 10.50 baht for the end of 2026. This follows the August 2026 report on Blue Line electric train passenger volumes, which averaged 444,000 people per day, up 1.0% year on year and 4.2% month on month, while ticket sales revenue came in at 13.2 million baht. Average daily vehicle volume on the expressway was 1.12 million vehicles, up 0.7% year on year and 1.4% month on month, generating revenue of 25.6 million baht. For the first eight months of 2026, average passenger volume was 424,500 people per day, up 0.8% year on year, and average vehicle volume was 1.1 million vehicles, up 0.8% year on year. KGI maintained its 2026 profit forecast at 3.9 billion baht, up 4% year on year, and its 2027 forecast at 4.0 billion baht, up 3% year on year, excluding any upside from the Orange Line. Yuanta maintained its 2026 normalized profit forecast at 3,973 million baht, up 5.1% year on year, and expects third-quarter 2026 profit to hit a new all-time high, driven by a dividend of 221 million baht received from TTW and the start of maintenance cost savings on the Purple Line. Meanwhile, the first of 32 trains for the entire Orange Line will be delivered to Thailand in November 2026, with the eastern section expected to begin commercial service by January 2028 and the western section by July 2030.

Several brokers have issued analyses of Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited, or BEM, expecting profit to grow in the second half of this year and viewing the Orange Line electric train as a long-term growth driver, and therefore recommend buying with target prices of 8.20-9.00 baht. Asia Plus Securities said BEM reported continued strong August statistics, with average Blue Line electric train ridership of 444,304 trips per day, up 1.0% year-on-year, marking the seventh consecutive month of year-on-year growth, while average expressway usage was 1.118 million trips per day, up 0.7% year-on-year, and recommends buying with a fair value of 8.20 baht. KGI Securities (Thailand) expects third-quarter profit to be the peak quarter of the year and maintains its 2026 profit forecast at 3.9 billion baht, up 4% year-on-year, and 2027 at 4.0 billion baht, up 3% year-on-year, not yet including the opportunity from Orange Line ridership, and recommends buying with a target price of 8.40 baht. Dao Securities (Thailand) expects net profit in 2026 of 3.9 billion baht, growing 3% year-on-year, and recommends buying with a target price of 9.00 baht. Tisco Securities recommends buying with a fair value of 8.80 baht, citing stable cash flow from concessions and support from various projects that is not yet reflected in the share price.

KGI Securities (Thailand) said in an analysis that Bangkok Expressway and Metro, or BEM, will post strong profit in the second half of the year. In August 2026, average electric train ridership was 444,000 passengers per day, up 1.0% from the same period last year and up 4.2% from the previous month, while average fare revenue was 13.2 million baht per day. In the expressway business, average traffic volume was 1.12 million vehicles per day, up 0.7% from a year earlier, with average revenue of 25.6 million baht per day. For the first eight months of 2026, average train ridership was 424,500 passengers per day, up 0.8%, and average expressway traffic was 1.10 million vehicles per day, up 0.8%. KGI expects third-quarter 2026 ridership and revenue to rise about 1-1.3% from the same period last year and 11-12% from the previous quarter. It maintained its 2026 net profit forecast at 3.9 billion baht, up 4% from a year earlier, and its 2027 forecast at 4.0 billion baht, up 3%. It also maintained its Buy recommendation with a sum-of-the-parts target price of 8.40 baht, comprising 6.30 baht for the core business, 0.75 baht for investments in TTW and CKP, and 1.35 baht for the Orange Line electric train project.

Dao Securities stated that BEM reported August 2026 electric train passengers at 440,000 trips per day, up 1% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month, while the 8M26 figure stood at 420,000 trips per day, up 2% year-on-year. Expressway users in August 2026 came in at 1.1 million trips per day, up 0.7% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month, with the 8M26 average at 1.1 million trips per day, up 0.8% year-on-year. The research team holds a positive view on the overall user picture, as electric train passengers expanded both year-on-year and month-on-month for a third consecutive month, and expressway users grew for a fourth consecutive month on seasonal factors as travel and tourism gradually enter the high season, along with benefits from avoiding the Orange Line construction and the Thai Chai Thai Plus stimulus measures. Dao Securities maintained its 2026E net profit forecast at 3.9 billion baht, up 3% year-on-year, and kept its Buy recommendation with a target price of 9.00 baht based on SOTP, with catalysts from progress on new projects during 2H26E-2027E and the common ticketing policy for electric trains in early 2027E, though details of the government's subsidy calculation still need to be monitored, particularly the volume of passengers added by the policy.

KGI Securities (Thailand) said BEM reported average daily passenger volume and electric train ticket revenue for August 2569 at 444,000 people, up 1.0% YoY and 4.2% MoM, and 13.2 million baht, up 0.1% YoY and 3.8% MoM, respectively. Meanwhile, average daily vehicle volume for expressway users and revenue stood at 1.12 million vehicles, up 0.7% YoY and 1.4% MoM, and 25.6 million baht, up 0.6% YoY and 1.9% MoM, respectively. Over the first eight months of 2569, average daily passenger volume and revenue stood at 424,500 people, up 0.8% YoY, and 12.72 million baht, up 2.2% YoY, while average daily vehicle volume and revenue stood at 1.1 million vehicles, up 0.8% YoY, and 25.2 million baht, up 0.3% YoY, respectively. It expects average daily passenger volume and revenue in the third quarter of 2569 to rise about 1-1.3% YoY and 11-12% QoQ, while average daily vehicle volume and revenue may grow 0.6-0.7% YoY and 2.5-3.5% QoQ. Normally the third quarter tends to be the year's peak quarter for results, as revenue from the expressway and rail system businesses grows in the single digits. Good cost control plus an interim dividend from TTW. Fourth-quarter 2569 profit should be slightly stronger than previously expected YoY, driven by a cost adjustment of about 100 million baht. It maintains its 2569 profit estimate at 3.9 billion baht, up 4% YoY, and its 2570 estimate at 4.0 billion baht, up 3% YoY, without yet including the opportunity for passenger volume to increase from the trial run of the Orange Line (eastern side), which will feed more passengers into the Blue Line, and the new, cheaper fare rate of 17-45 baht, which should also help improve operating efficiency. The first Orange Line train sets will gradually arrive in late 2569, and all 17 trains should be ready in late 2570 for trial runs before officially opening for commercial service in early 2571. Meanwhile, additional Blue Line train sets will gradually arrive from mid-2570 through late 2571, and the end of the Blue Line project's compensation payments in 2572 will help BEM save about 5 billion baht per year in cash flow. The official opening of the Orange Line's western side and the Purple Line's southern section will support growth in 2573. For the expressway business, full-year positive effects should be seen from the increase in tolls on the urban FES and SES routes to 60 baht in 2572 from the current 50 baht. BEM also still hopes for the 35-billion-baht elevated expressway project and the 30-billion-baht M&E contract, with the Purple Line's southern section expected to receive government approval early next year. It maintains a buy recommendation with an SOTP target price of 8.40 baht, derived from the core business at 6.30 baht using a WACC of 5.3% and terminal growth of 0%, and investments in TTW and CKP at 0.75 baht, plus the Orange Line project at 1.35 baht. The target price reflects a 2570 PE of 32-33x, minus 0.5 S.D.

BEM expects its operating results in Q3/2026 to continue improving, as it is the high season for the electric train and expressway businesses, which will help drive an increase in passenger numbers. At the same time, it is upgrading the Metro Mall area at Chatuchak Station into a health station by organizing the "BEM CARE 2026 Health Station" event from September 4-6, 2026, in collaboration with public and private partners such as Siriraj Hospital, Piyavate Hospital, Bangpakok Hospital Group, the Thai Red Cross Society, and ThaiHealth, to make preventive health screenings more accessible to the public. Meanwhile, analysts from Yuanta Securities (Thailand) recommend a "Buy" on BEM shares with a target price of 10.50 baht, expecting stronger second-half profit growth due to lower maintenance costs and a tourism recovery. They forecast normal profit for 2026 to grow 5.1% to around 3.97 billion baht, with additional positive factors from the common ticket policy for electric trains and the opening of the Orange Line in 2028-2040.

Park24 announced after the market close on August 31 that its consolidated recurring profit for the third quarter cumulative period of fiscal year ending October 2026 (November 2025-July 2026) rose 20.0% year on year to 26.7 billion yen, with a progress rate of 67.7% against the full-year plan of 39.5 billion yen, nearly in line with the five-year average (excluding loss-making periods) of 66.1%. Based on the company's unchanged full-year plan, our estimate shows that consolidated recurring profit for the August-October period (4Q) is expected to grow 7.5% year on year to 12.7 billion yen. The actual result for the latest three months, May-July (3Q), expanded 31.7% year on year to 10.9 billion yen, with the operating margin on sales improving to 11.4% from 8.9% in the same period last year.

Jiangsu Expressway released its 2026 interim report, with total operating revenue of 9.293 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent of 2.503 billion yuan, up 3.28% from the same period last year. Net cash inflow from operating activities was 3.603 billion yuan, up 9.94% year on year, marking a second consecutive year of growth. The company's asset-liability ratio was 45.64%, down 0.15 percentage points year on year; gross margin was 34.60%, up 1.43 percentage points year on year, rising for two consecutive years; ROE was 6.03%. Diluted earnings per share were 0.50 yuan, up 3.28% year on year. Total asset turnover was 0.09 times, and inventory turnover was 3.32 times, up 3.61% year on year, rising for five consecutive years. The number of shareholders was 38,900, and the top ten shareholders held 72.27% of total share capital.

Anhui Expressway has released its 2026 interim report. Total operating revenue was 3.227 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.007 billion yuan, an increase of 46.9316 million yuan compared with the same period last year, marking a fourth consecutive year of growth and a year-on-year rise of 4.89%. Net cash inflow from operating activities was 1.722 billion yuan, up 12.57% year on year. The company's asset-liability ratio was 56.88%, gross margin was 44.54%, return on equity was 8.00%, and diluted earnings per share was 0.59 yuan.